NFL Week 3 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Houston Texans and the Carolina Panthers at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Christian McCaffrey at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $20,100 as opposed to $13,400.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
Studs
McCaffrey is one of the top non-quarterbacks in fantasy, and you’re going to have to spend up if you want to roster him. He missed most of last year with injuries, but he’s picked up right where he left off. He’s racked up at least 24.7 DraftKings points in both games to start the season, and he’s capable of beating teams in a variety of ways. He ranks second on the team with a 20.5% target market share, and he’s handled just under 85% of the RB carries.
McCaffrey is in an elite spot on Thursday. The Texans rank 31st in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, and they rank just 21st in passing defense vs. running backs. Add it all up, and McCaffrey owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 on DraftKings.
He leads all players in our NFL Models in Median and Floor Projection, and his Ceiling Projection is tied for first as well. He will likely command massive ownership – especially at Captain – but it’s hard to argue against it.
The Panthers took a risk on Sam Darnold during the offseason, and that risk has paid off so far. He’s led the team to two wins, and his 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt would shatter his previous career-high. He’s also been good from a fantasy perspective, scoring at least 20.06 DraftKings points in both contests.
The Texans have actually been surprisingly good against the pass this season, ranking sixth in pass defense DVOA, but they were miserable in that department last year. That gives Darnold an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.1.
He also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Panthers are listed as eight-point favorites in this matchup, and large home favorites have fared well. Home QBs laying more than a touchdown have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.31 (per the Trends tool). Darnold has never been favored by that much during his career, but he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.50 as a home favorite in general.
D.J. Moore should serve as Darnold’s top receiver. He leads the team with a 26% target market share, and he’s logged at least eight targets in both games. He’s also secured one of the team’s three receiving touchdowns and has gobbled up 33.7% of their air yards.
Pro Football Focus gives Moore a sizable edge against the Texans’ cornerbacks. All three of the Texans’ corners rank outside the top 50 at the position, while Moore sports the fifth-highest grade at receiver.
Brandin Cooks rounds out this price range, and he’s been excellent to start the year. He finished with five catches for 132 yards in Week 1, and he had nine catches for 78 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. Cooks has also amassed 21 targets, which is tied for the sixth-highest mark in the league.
Still, it’s hard to get too excited about Cooks on Thursday. For starters, the Panthers’ defense has been outstanding to start the year. They rank first in defensive DVOA, and they limited the Saints to just 80 passing yards last week. Their pass rush has also been outstanding to start the year, racking up 10 sacks through the first two weeks.
The Texans will also be breaking in a rookie quarterback in Davis Mills. Mills looked overmatched during the preseason, and he averaged just 4.28 adjusted yards per attempt in relief of Tyrod Taylor last week. It would not be surprising to see him struggle against a ferocious pass rush, which would trickle down to Cooks.
Midrange
As much as Mills scares me, it’s impossible to completely ignore him on this slate. He’s priced at just $8,400, which is about as cheap as possible for a quarterback in the single-game format. Even though Mills struggled last week, he still finished with 6.98 DraftKings points in just one half of football.
He also brings just enough athleticism to the table. He’s far from an elite athlete for the position – he ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at his pro day – but he did average 8.3 yards per carry during the preseason. He could be running for his life vs. the Panthers, which does give him a bit of upside in that department. Mills owns the third-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings, so he’s very reasonable at his current salary.
Robby Anderson has struggled to start the year, racking up just four catches through his first two contests. His target volume has also been disappointing, posting just a 12.3% market share.
However, he seems poised for a breakout. Even though he hasn’t seen a ton of targets, the ones he has seen have been valuable. He’s racked up 37.9% of the Panthers’ air yards, which is the top mark on the squad. That gives him an excellent ceiling for his price tag.
The Texans want to be a run-first team, and they own the fifth-highest rush rate in football so far this season. They have three running backs in their rotation at the moment, but Mark Ingram is the clear top option. He’s racked up 64.5% of their running back carries through the first two weeks.
Unfortunately, his value is going to be wildly dependent on the game script. The Texans won their first game of the year, and Ingram saw a whopping 26 carries in that contest. They lost their second game, and Ingram had just 14 carries in that one. Most people are going to build their lineups under the impression that the Panthers will win this game comfortably, so Ingram is an interesting way to tell a contrarian story. If the Texans can keep this game competitive, Ingram will likely be looking at plenty of carries.
David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay round out the Texans’ backfield, and Johnson is the preferred receiving threat. He’s racked up six targets through the first two weeks, resulting in a 9.7% market share. That’s not an overwhelming amount, but it’s enough to make him viable in PPR formats.
Lindsay is the toughest back to make a case for. He’s scored at least 8.5 DraftKings points in his first two games, but he’s scored a touchdown in both contests. He finished with just five carries and one target last week, so he’s not seeing a large enough workload to warrant consideration.
Dan Arnold and Terrance Marshall are the other Panthers’ pass-catchers in this price range. Marshall ranks tied for third on the team with nine targets, while Arnold ranks fifth with seven.
Marshall has been one of the unluckiest receivers to start the season. He’s credited with 18.1 expected DraftKings points per PFF, but he’s finished with just 10.3. That difference of -7.8 is the ninth-highest gap at the position. He’s the clear preferred option of the two on DraftKings at just $4,000, but Arnold has some appeal as a value option on FanDuel.
Quick Hits
- Defenses and Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineups around them. The Panthers’ defense will likely be a popular play in this matchup, but they’re a bit too pricy for me.
- Chuba Hubbard ($3,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Hubbard got involved in the Panthers’ offense last week, but don’t expect that to be a weekly occurrence. He could get more work if this game also turns into a blowout, but McCaffrey is still one of the biggest workhorses in the league in competitive contests.
- Pharaoh Brown ($2,600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Brown had a nice game for the Texans in Week 1, but he saw just one target last week. That said, he still played on a respectable 62% of the Texans snaps in that contest, so he has some buy-low appeal.
- Jordan Akins ($2,200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Akins is the other TE in Houston, but he’s far less appealing. He’s seen just four targets through the first two weeks, and he’s finished with just one catch. Still, he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary, and he has played on at least 60% of the snaps in both games.
- Ian Thomas ($2,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): The Panthers also like to utilize multiple tight ends, and Thomas played on 68% of the Panthers’ snaps last week. PFF credits him with 8.9 expected DraftKings points this season, which isn’t that far behind Arnold’s mark of 12.1.
- Chris Conley ($1,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Conley is one of the best pure values in this price range on DraftKings, and he has a chance to take on a larger workload this week. Nico Collins and Danny Amendola are not expected to suit up on Thursday, so Conley should start on the outside alongside Cooks.
- Anthony Miller ($1,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Miller will also join the Texans’ receiver corps this week after being a healthy scratch for their first two games. He could step into the No. 3 receiver job, which makes him very intriguing at his current salary.
