NFL

NFL DFS Breakdown: Showdown Strategy & Plays For Bears vs. Vikings On Monday Night Football

By Matt LaMarca @MattLaMarca
Nov 16, 2020

NFL Week 10 wraps up with a Monday Night Football contest between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings at 8:15 p.m. ET.

If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Dalvin Cook at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $20,400 as opposed to $13,600.

FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.

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Studs

Cook is the main attraction in this slate, and he’s one of the most expensive DFS options we’ve seen all season. He’s going to cost you more than 40% of the salary cap on DraftKings if you choose to roster him in the Captain spot. That leaves you with an average of less than $6,000 for your five flexes. That’s doable, but you’re going to have to sacrifice other studs or get very creative with a couple of punt plays.

It’s easy to see why Cook is so expensive: He’s been an absolute monster over his past two games, logging at least 223 total yards from scrimmage in each. He’s also scored a whopping six touchdowns, resulting in an average of 46.9 DraftKings points per game. That’s absurd.

That said, he’ll have his work cut out for him vs. the Bears, who have been one of the best defensive teams in football this season. They haven’t been quite as tough on the run as they have been against the pass, but they still rank seventh in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. They also rank second in pass defense DVOA vs. the RB position, so this is a brutal matchup for Cook.

Cook does lead the slate in terms of projected fantasy points, but his projected Plus/Minus of -2.3 on DraftKings is subpar. He also owns just the third-highest ceiling projection despite his massive salary. Fading Cook in general makes sense given his likely ownership, and fading him in the Captain spot is almost mandatory — it doesn’t make sense to sacrifice so much salary cap given that there are other players with similar fantasy outlooks.

Allen Robinson is next up on the pricing spectrum.

He continues to put up some of the most consistent production at the WR position. He’s logged at least nine targets in six of eight games, and he’s put up at least double-digit fantasy points in seven of the eight. He doesn’t offer the highest ceiling because of Chicago’s subpar quarterback situation, but he’s scored at least 19.0 DraftKings points in four of his past seven games. The catches and yards should be there, so his fantasy day will be determined by whether he can find the end zone.

Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Allen Robinson

Speaking of the quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles are both very reasonably priced for the single-game format.

Cousins will be looking for his first career win on Monday Night Football. He’s lost each of his previous nine attempts, but the Vikings are listed as three-point favorites in this matchup. Cousins has played some of the best football of his career as a road favorite, posting an average Plus/Minus of +1.81 over 14 starts (per the Trends tool).

Unfortunately, the Bears have been an absolutely brutal matchup for QBs to start the season — Cousins owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.1 on DraftKings, which is easily the worst mark in our NFL Models.

Foles’ matchup is a little more favorable: He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.0 – and he’s coming off his best fantasy performance of the season in his last outing. He finished with 335 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in 24.6 DraftKings points.

I wouldn’t expect a repeat of his 52 passing attempts in that contest, but the Bears’ injury situation at the running back position could work in his favor. They are down their top two running backs in David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen, so the Bears may have no choice but to take to the air on Monday night.

Adam Thielen rounds out the stud tier, and he is an excellent pivot if you decide to fade Cook. Those two have a correlation of -0.09, so one tends to do well when the other struggles. That makes a lot of sense for a running back and a wide receiver, particularly on a team like the Vikings. When Cook gets rolling, Minnesota will have games where they throw the ball 20 or fewer times.

Thielen is expected to draw one of the tougher cornerback matchups in Kyle Fuller, but Pro Football Focus still gives Thielen a sizable edge. He’s commanded a large share of the Vikings pass attempts recently, so he could be in line for a big day if their passing volume increases.

>> Monday Night Football Betting Guide: Read Chris Raybon’s matchup analysis and find out how he’s betting the Vikings-Bears spread.

Midrange

The midrange options in this contest are a little uninspiring, but Justin Jefferson stands out as an exception. His production has dropped off recently with Cook doing all the heavy lifting, but Jefferson still looks like a potential future star. He actually owns the second-highest PFF grade among all wide receivers this season, trailing only Davante Adams.

That is a very impressive debut.

Jefferson is expected to see the majority of his snaps across from Jaylon Johnson, which gives him a better individual matchup than Thielen. This could be a prime buy-low spot.

The Bears’ running back situation is another potential source of value tonight. Montgomery has served as a true workhorse back recently, so his absence is going to open up a lot of touches for the rest of the backfield.

That said, this seems like it will be a committee situation. Cordarrelle Patterson and Ryan Nall have received some work behind Montgomery recently, and both have some chops in the passing game. Each had four targets last week, and receiving work is always valuable in fantasy.

However, those players will have some company this week after the Bears elevated Lamar Miller from the practice squad to the active roster. Miller obviously has the edge over Nall and Patterson in terms of experience, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he handles the majority of the carries for Chicago. He’s not in the player pool on FanDuel, but he’s priced at just $200 on DraftKings.

Miller looks like one of the best values on the slate at such a minimal salary.

The remaining options in this price range are secondary pass-catchers for Chicago. Jimmy Graham is the most expensive of the group, and he continues to provide solid fantasy value in his first season with the Bears. He’s already scored five touchdowns, which is tied with his total over two full seasons with the Packers. He’s also seen at least five targets in every game with Foles under center, which gives him a solid receiving floor as well.

Darnell Mooney has emerged as the clear No. 2 WR opposite Robinson. Mooney is coming off 11 targets in their last game. He also finished with 45.35% of the Bears’ total air yards in that contest, which was the 11th-highest mark in the league last week. He has excellent upside for his price tag.

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller

Finally, Anthony Miller could also be worth a look at his current salary. He’s had 19 total targets over his past two games, and he’s played on a season-high 53 snaps in back-to-back weeks. His targets are typically much closer to the line of scrimmage – which gives Mooney the clear edge in ceiling – but Miller might have the safer floor.