This piece will identify some of my favorite DFS stacks of the weekend. Be sure to use our Stacking tool found within our Player Models to find the highest projected stacks, the stacks that figure to be chalky and more. Our Correlations page is also a great resource to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Jameis Winston ($5400 DraftKings, $7300 FanDuel)
- Mike Evans ($6600 DraftKings, $7100 FanDuel)
Fantasy owners have been patiently waiting for the Mike Evans breakout and it should come this week at home against the poor Giants secondary. The Winston-Evans pairing is our second-highest rated stack of the week, according to The Bales Model.
Through two games, Evans has 13 targets, six receptions, and 89 receiving yards. In short, a wide receiver who has averaged 1220 receiving yards per season is currently on pace for 712 receiving yards this season. Positive regression is coming and there is no better time than against the Giants.
The Giants have the second-worst pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders) trailing only Miami. In their last road game at Dallas, they allowed 405 passing yards and two receivers (Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup) to crest 100 receiving yards. Tampa Bay teammate Chris Godwin’s hot start (15 targets, 11 receptions, 174 receiving yards, two touchdowns) has caused Evans’ price to drop below Godwin’s in both DraftKings and FanDuel.
This game has the third-highest point total of Week 3, and the Buccaneers possess a non-existent running game. Look for Jameis Winston to accumulate pass volume and Tampa Bay’s All-Pro receiver to finally experience some positive regression.
Running Back + DEF/Special Teams
- Aaron Jones ($6100 DraftKings, $6900 FanDuel)
- Green Bay D/ST ($3400 DraftKings, $4500 FanDuel)
Aaron Jones produced the overall PPR RB2 performance in Week 2, much to the relief of fantasy owners. While his hold on the long term starting job could prove tenuous, now is the time to place your DFS trust in Jones.
Green Bay has increased their run rate from 32.6% last year to 43.7% this season. Despite Jones’ big Week 2 performance, Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur stated his desire to even out the touches between Jones and teammate Jamaal Williams. This has actually helped soften the excitement on Jones, and keep projected ownership around 5-8%.
The Packers defense has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, currently allowing 9.5 points per game, second-best in the league. They face a Broncos offense that has struggled to generate points. Denver is averaging 15 points per game which rank fifth-worst in the league.
Aaron Jones should have another strong game against a Broncos defense that allowed Oakland rookie Josh Jacobs to finish with 113 yards and a touchdown in Denver’s Week 1 road game. This stack combines Green Bay’s likely positive game script with their strong pressure defense against Denver’s immobile quarterback, Joe Flacco.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Opposing Pass-Catcher
- Matt Ryan ($5700 DraftKings, $7800 FanDuel)
- Calvin Ridley ($5300 DraftKings, $6500 FanDuel)
- T.Y. Hilton ($6400 DraftKings, $7400 FanDuel)
We are going back to the well with Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley, especially with the Falcons playing in a dome. Per Scott Barrett of PFF, 26 of Matt Ryan’s 37 highest-scoring games have come in a dome. In 2018, Ryan averaged 23.8 fantasy points per dome games but only 20.1 fantasy points outdoors.
I also suggest pivoting off the obvious Ryan stack with Julio Jones and onto the lower price point with Calvin Ridley. On DraftKings, Jones price is $7300 at 17-20% projected ownership, while Ridley is at $5300 with 9-12% projected ownership. Since entering the NFL, Ridley has averaged 0.8 touchdowns in road games while Jones has only averaged 0.4 in that same time period.
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley (18), quarterback Matt Ryan (2) and wide receiver.
In a dome game with a 47.5 over/under, it is wise to find a receiver on the opposing team as well, and I recommend grabbing T.Y. Hilton in an ideal smash spot. In his last 48 home games, Hilton has averaged 8.6 targets, 5.3 receptions, 83.4 receiving yards, and 0.4 touchdowns for a PPR average of 16.1 fantasy points.
Last season, Hilton was even better last season with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. For a larger sample size, Hilton’s career touchdown average with Brissett at home is 0.5 per game, a full tenth of a point higher than his overall average over those last 48 games at the Lucas Oil Stadium.The price is right for this affordable, low ownership projection stack, that has a good chance to break the magical 3X DFS barrier.
Other Favorite Stack
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Opposing Pass-Catcher
- Kyler Murray ($5800 DraftKings, $7200FanDuel)
- Christian Kirk ($5000 DraftKings, $5900 FanDuel)
- Curtis Samuel ($4800 DraftKings, $5800 FanDuel)
The timing is right for a Kyler Murray breakout performance. Murray is averaging 328.5 passing yards per game, including 349 yards last week at Baltimore. Volume is certainly in his favor, as Murray is leading all quarterbacks with 94 passing attempts through two games. It is rare to the NFL leader in pass attempts available at under $6000 in DraftKings.
This should also be the last week Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk is priced below $6000 on both DFS sites. Against the Ravens stout pass defense, Kirk tallied six receptions for 114 receiving yards and is poised for a huge week against Carolina’s 19th-best pass defense. While Kirk’s projected ownership (9-12%) indicates he is no longer under the fantasy radar, his pairing with Murray (5-8%) gives a ton of projected volume at a low price point.
The key to this stack is adding Carolina wide receiver, Curtis Samuel. With Cam Newton out, the Panthers turn to backup quarterback Kyle Allen on the road at Arizona. Allen’s projected ownership is nearly zero percent and keeps Samuel’s projections around 2-4%. Per PlayerProfiler, Samuel ranks top 20 overall with 17 targets, fifth among wide receivers with five deep targets, while ranking a microscopic 92nd with a 47.1% catchable target rate.
In Week 2, Samuel tied for third among all wide receivers with 13 targets. Allen may actually be an accuracy improvement over Newton, and getting a high-target wideout for less than $50000 in a projected shootout is a favorable move. Grab this QB + WR + WR stack as a very affordable high-volume play.
Pictured above: Quarterback Kyler Murray (1) and Arizona Cardinals teammates.
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports.
