Correlations are really important in DFS — so much so, in fact, that we created an NFL Stacking tool that can help you identify the best stacks of the week. Let’s mess around with the Stacking tool and see what DraftKings and FanDuel stacks we can find for Week 5 (via our Bales Player Model).
Note: The following stacks were generated for the 1:00pm Sunday main slate.
QB-WR (DK): Ryan Fitzpatrick-Brandon Marshall
Fitzpatrick has been impressively bad lately: In his last two games, he’s completed 43 of 85 passes for just one touchdown and nine interceptions. There’s a reason he is only $5,100 on DraftKings and has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of two to four percent this week. Context matters, though: Those two (admittedly awful) games came against a Seattle team that ranks first overall in defense and second against the pass this year (per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) and a Kansas City team that ranks eighth against the pass. This week? He has a better matchup in a Steelers team that ranks 17th against the pass this season.
Marshall has a very tough matchup: Per our Matchups tool, he is slated to run against William Gay, who is Pro Football Focus’ 15th-ranked cornerback this year. But we do know that Marshall will get a ton of opportunity: In Week 5, he played on 63 of the Jets’ 71 snaps and accounted for 29.27 percent of their targets. On the year, Marshall owns a whopping 39.41 percent of the Jets’ Air Yards. This will be a contrarian stack in Week 5 — because Fitz is bad and Marshall has a tough matchup — but it is one that has underrated upside, especially if they’re playing from behind, which their +7 spread suggests could be the case.
QB-TE (FD): Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski
Brady is back and should be popular: We have him projected at 13-16 percent ownership in the FD Sunday Million currently. Ironically, the question with this historically great pair isn’t Brady’s upside: It’s Gronk’s. Gronk got a bump in snaps in Week 4, but he still played only 39 of the 56 offensive snaps (compared to Martellus Bennett‘s 44). There are reports that Gronk still “isn’t right” with regards to his hamstring injury. All of this comes down to your risk tolerance. There’s no doubt that Gronk brings a ton of uncertainty and risk. However, what other time in his entire career are you going to be able to get him at $7,200 and five to eight percent projected ownership?
RB-D/ST (DK): LeGarrette Blount-Patriots D/ST
We’ll stay on the Patriots train and talk about Blount and the defense. First the defense: It’s been poor this year at times and currently ranks 24th overall in DVOA. However, this week the Pats face a Browns team that ranks 28th on offense and a rookie QB in Cody Kessler, who owns a league-worst 5.51 adjusted yards per pass attempt. The Patriots D/ST currently boasts the third-highest projected DK ceiling at 17.6. Regarding Blount: He’s clearly been the bell cow through the first four weeks of the season:
RBs in his position — cheap, heavily favored, and projected to score a ton of points — have historically done well on DK:
He’s the bell cow back for the highest-implied team and a double-digit favorite. That’s not a bad situation.
QB-RB-WR (FD): Aaron Rodgers-Eddie Lacy-Jordy Nelson
After the entire NFL world freaked out about whether the Packers offense was inherently flawed and whether Rodgers just didn’t have it anymore, he threw four touchdowns in the first half and eviscerated the Lions defense in Week 3. Now he’s coming off a bye week and gets a Giants defense that is playing on a short week and has the second-worst Opponent Plus/Minus on FD (+3.7) allowed to QBs over the last 16 games. The Giants currently rank 23rd against the pass. Rodgers could crush again.
Jordy has owned the highest percentage of the Packers’ targets in each of the first three weeks and finally broke out before the bye with a 6-101-2 performance. He’s set to match up against CB Janoris Jenkins, who owns a poor 67.1 PFF grade this year. Jordy is the third-highest rated WR in the FD Bales Model currently. Lacy had a good game in Week 3 as well, racking up 103 yards on a 6.1 yards-per-carry average. He still hasn’t gotten into the end zone this year, but this is a nice correlation play if you think Rodgers can get the Packers up early. Lacy has low projected ownership of just two to four percent.
QB-RB-WR-WR (DK): Derek Carr-Latavius Murray-Amari Cooper-Michael Crabtree
Julio Jones got most of the attention (deservedly) in Week 4, but Crabtree wasn’t too shabby. He posted a 7-88-3 line on 12 targets against a Ravens defense that currently (even after his performance) ranks fourth in the league per DVOA. This week the Raiders face a San Diego defense that ranks 23rd overall. The Raiders boast the fourth-highest implied point total of the week at 27.75. Murray hasn’t seen an elite percentage of rushes so far, but he’s still the No. 1 back for the Raiders through the first four weeks of the season:
The results haven’t been there — he’s missed salary-based expectations on DK in each of his last two games — but he’s seen a big enough price drop (he’s $4,100 this week) to warrant exposure. He has a projected ownership range of two to four percent and is currently the highest-rated DK RB in the Bales Model.
