Correlations are really important in DFS — so much so, in fact, that we created an NFL Stacking tool that can help you identify the best stacks of the week. Let’s mess around with the Stacking tool and see what DraftKings and FanDuel stacks we can find for Week 3 (via our Adam Levitan Player Model).
QB-WR (DK): Ryan Tannehill-Jarvis Landry
Landry is one of only five players to have been targeted at least 10 times in the first two weeks of the season. He has owned a whopping 31.88 percent of the Dolphins’ receiving targets and has played on all but six of their total offensive snaps. He is perhaps as important to their offense as any offensive player and should see a massive workload given the injury to running back Arian Foster.
This is a dream matchup, as the Browns have the third-worst defense so far this year, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. It’s a small sample, sure, but Cleveland wasn’t good last year either, ranking as a bottom-10 defense overall and the sixth-worst team against the pass. They have allowed a 3.1 Opponent Plus/Minus to WRs in the last year — the second-worst mark behind the Steelers’ 3.8. Landry should be incredibly popular this week: He currently has the highest FantasyLabs ownership projection in the slate along with San Diego’s Travis Benjamin.
QB-TE (FD): Kirk Cousins-Jordan Reed
Although the passing TDs haven’t been there for the Redskins this year, the volume has: Cousins has thrown a combined 89 passes this season. Reed, along with wideout Jamison Crowder, has owned 20.24 percent of those targets. Washington has gotten a little ‘cute’ at times this year — rookie Josh Doctson currently leads the team in touches inside the 10-yard line — but Max Steinberg made a good point on this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast: They could (and should) revert back to the Cousins-Reed connection, which had so much success last season.
The Giants defense is improved in 2016, but they’re still poor against tight ends:
This is consistent with their year-long marks, too: They’ve allowed tight ends to score 2.9 FD points above salary-based expectations in that time frame — the second-worst mark in the league. Touching quickly on Cousins: He’s actually the highest-rated FD QB in the Levitan Model, and he faces a Giants secondary that has allowed 3.6 points over expectations to QBs in the last year. This is a fantastic week for this duo to regain their chemistry.
RB-D/ST (DK): Melvin Gordon-Chargers D/ST
It is the week of the cheap running back thanks to a massive number of injuries to starters in Week 2. Gordon will be one of the highest-owned players in all of NFL DFS this week, as he will get the majority of the SD touches with Danny Woodhead now out for the year. He has already been the team’s preferred red-zone option:
Now he should get all the work he can handle against an awful Colts defense. His +6.3 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is second only to DeAngelo Williams‘ mark among RBs. The Chargers D/ST will be low-owned but could be a sneaky play in tournaments: Andrew Luck will be missing Donte Moncrief and the Chargers have Jason Verrett — Pro Football Focus’ top-rated cornerback this year — to throw at T.Y. Hilton. It’s scary to play a defense against Luck, and this admittedly isn’t the historic Denver defense, but sometimes a low-owned defense can win you a million dollars.
QB-RB-WR (DK): Ben Roethlisberger- DeAngelo Williams-Antonio Brown
The Philip Rivers-Gordon-Benjamin trio will be an incredibly popular stack, but the Pittsburgh one above takes the top spot this week. Antonio had a down Week 2, racking up only 39 receiving yards on four receptions — a disappointing 7.9-point DK outing at a $9,900 price tag. However, this week should be much easier against an Eagles defense that has allowed 3.1 points over salary-based expectations to WRs in the last year. Of course, Byron Maxwell is gone from the secondary, but our own John Proctor still believes this is a plus matchup for Brown.
Using this stack could be a nice way to create a unique lineup around what should be a very high-owned DeAngelo. He has gotten a ridiculous 87.88 percent of the Steelers’ rushes this year and has about as safe of a floor as any player in fantasy right now. As expected, his ownership is projected to be really high (21 to 25 percent). However, Big Ben’s ownership is projected to be low. Someone won the Milly Maker last season with a full team stack of the Steelers that included these three players. Could it happen again?
QB-RB-WR-WR (FD): Ryan Tannehill-Jay Ajayi-Jarvis Landry-DeVante Parker
This is the week of the backup running back indeed, but the Dolphins’ backups — Ajayi and Kenyan Drake — haven’t gotten much buzz, mostly because the Dolphins will likely be very pass-heavy and we’re uncertain about the Ajayi/Drake split. However, Ajayi should be low-owned and will get opportunities, as both a runner and receiver: He averaged over 3.5 receptions per game in his final season at Boise State.
The other guy we haven’t talked about, Parker, was excellent in his return to the field in Week 2. He received 13 targets and turned them into 106 receiving yards on eight receptions. Kenny Stills is still very much a part of this Miami offense — he leads all skill-position players in snaps through two weeks — but the targets don’t lie: Parker is their No. 2 option and the deep threat alongside Landry. He is currently projected for five to eight percent ownership on DK.
Good luck in Week 3!
