The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 4 Tight Ends
If I posted the same TE intro two weeks in a row, would anyone notice? Let’s see:
TEs are like lawyers: They’re all the same till the moment you need one.
Also, you usually end up paying thousands of dollars only to feel like you got screwed with your pants on.
I think that we got away with it.
To Gronk or Not to Gronk
Amazingly, Rob Gronkowski‘s situation this week isn’t all that different than it was last week.
- He will be active, but his snap count and usage are hard to determine.
- He will be without Tom Brady.
- He will probably be unnecessary.
In all probability, the Patriots at home should be able to beat the Bills with some combination of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett and without Gronk needing to do much.
At the same time, Gronk is now $900 and $1,300 cheaper on DraftKings and FanDuel than he was when Week 1 daily fantasy sports salaries were released. If ever there were a time to roster him in a guaranteed prize pool and hope that he somehow has a big game, shouldn’t it be when his price is depressed and his FantasyLabs ownership projections are five to eight percent on DK and two to four percent on FD? — especially in a game with no Vegas data yet? Wouldn’t that be the move motivated by contrarianism?
The Usual Suspects
If you’re not playing Gronk, there’s a decent chance that you’re thinking about playing one of these next three guys.
For Kids Who Can’t Reed Good
In last week’s TE Breakdown, I encouraged you to invest in Jordan Reed if you’re the type of DFS player who likes to pay up for TEs. It didn’t work out all that well last week, as he converted his seven targets into only four receptions for 56 scoreless yards — but Reed is still in an ideal spot. He leads “the Reedskins” with 25 targets and he’s third at his position in targets and yards receiving.
He’s been unfortunate not to score a touchdown yet — especially after scoring 11 TDs in 14 games last season — but much of the fault for his scorelessness lies with head coach Jay Gruden. Pint-sized wide receiver Jamison Crowder has been targeted inside the 10-yard line three times this season, and Reed — the largest established receiver on the team — has been targeted only once inside the 10.
In Week 4, Reed faces a Browns defense allowing the most receptions in the league to TEs. At some point, receptions will turn into TDs for Reed.
Still the Alpha
Greg Olsen‘s Week 3 was pretty amazing, not because he was outstandingly productive, but because, when QB Cam Newton didn’t feel like forcing the ball to WR Kelvin Benjamin, he threw the ball to Olsen. K-Benjy was targeted only once last week. Olsen, meanwhile, was targeted 10 times.
Right now, Olsen’s the TE1 on both DK and FD in points per game (PPG) . . .
. . . and (per Bryan Mears’ Week 4 Market Share Report) he’s leading the Panthers in targets . . .
. . . and Air Yards, a predictive metric created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer.
And, in Week 4, he’s facing a Falcons defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to TEs this year.
He’s $6,000 on DK and $7,900 on FD. If you don’t mind paying up for Reed, then I really doubt that you’ll mind doing so for Olsen.
Simple, Like the Titans Offense
Delanie Walker (hamstring) missed last week’s game, but Titans head coach Mike Mularkey expects him to play this week, per the FantasyLabs News feed.
I’m hesitant about Walker for two reasons:
- We have no way of knowing how limited he might be in Week 4.
- He’s facing a Houston defense that in 2016 has allowed a -2.71 Opponent Plus/Minus to non-chumps Travis Kelce, Martellus Bennett, and Zach Miller.
And if we add Gronk to that mix, we get a league-low mark of -4.40.
I’d look elsewhere for TE production this week.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
• Kelce: Eight DK and FD Pro Trends
• Bennett: One last game before Gronk is back to full strength?
• Miller: Highest-rated DK TE in the Bales Player Model facing a Lions defense that is allowing the most TDs to TEs in 2016
• Jimmy Graham: +10.08 and +6.00 DK and FD Plus/Minus values after his warm-up Week 1
• Coby Fleener: 23 targets over three games with 24.69 percent of the Saints’ Air Yards and going against the team with the most yards receiving allowed to TEs
• Jacob Tamme: Second on the Falcons in targets and Air Yards
• Clive Walford: +3.93 and +3.03 DK and FD Plus/Minus values this season
• Jason Witten: Facing a 49ers defense that allows the third-most yards receiving to TEs
• Dennis Pitta: Tied for first on the Ravens in targets and going against a Raiders defense that last year allowed the second-most TDs to TEs
• Kyle Rudolph: Second on the team in targets and facing a Giants defense that last year allowed the second-most fantasy points to TEs
• Hunter Henry: Dirt-cheap talented rookie going against a Saints defense that last year allowed the most fantasy points to TEs
And don’t forget that Dwayne Allen is ready to tear up Wembley — if the field isn’t already torn up when the game starts. #LondonGame
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the other Week 4 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
