The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 4: Running Backs
A month ago, Dwayne Washington was a guy who was hoping to make the Lions’ roster. Last week, he led the team in carries and yards rushing. He’s officially a daily fantasy sports option.
Welcome to Week 4. If you’re reading this, you’re still alive.
(And since you’re alive you should check out the Week 4 RB Model Preview by Peter Jennings.)
Last week, Jeremy Langford and Shane Vereen sustained injuries that will cause both of them to miss at least a month each.
And so the total list of significant DFS RBs to suffer injuries in Weeks 1-3 of the season is thus:
• Danny Woodhead (knee)
• Adrian Peterson (knee)
• Doug Martin (hamstring)
• Jonathan Stewart (hamstring)
• Ameer Abdullah (foot)
• Arian Foster (groin)
• Rashad Jennings (thumb)
• Thomas Rawls (contusion)
• Jeremy Langford (ankle)
• Shane Vereen (triceps)
But it’s not all doom, gloom, and mushrooms — which would be an awesome name for a Mordor-themed illicit drug emporium.
It’s all going to be alright this week, because the Big Agility is back. That’s right: I couldn’t think of a better nickname for the guy I’m talking about.
This week, the best RB whose last name rhymes with “hell” returns from a drug-related suspension . . . again. Smoke ’em if you got ’em, because who knows how long till The Bellerina is suspended for a third time.
The Big Four
This week, the same four guys occupy the top salary spots on DK and FD:
• David Johnson (RB1): $7,800 DK, $8,700 FD
• Le’Veon Bell (RB2): $7,500 DK, $8,300 FD
• Lamar Miller (RB3): $7,000 DK, $8,200 FD
• Ezekiel Elliott (RB4): $6,900 DK, $8,100 FD
In this week’s QB Breakdown, I point out that DK QBs are now much cheaper than they were at the beginning of the year. Something similar and related to that (but still different) can be seen in DK RBs: Right now, they are inordinately expensive.
Let’s look at the DK Bargain Rating for each of The Big Four:
• Johnson: four percent
• Bell: three percent
• Miller: 13 percent
• Elliott: 13 percent
Remember, these RBs have precisely the same positional salary rank on FD. It’s not as if Johnson is priced as the FD RB20. He’s the most expensive runner on FD by $400 — and he still has only a four percent Bargain Rating on DK.
Of the DK RBs with the 24 highest salaries, 19 have Bargain Ratings beneath 50 percent. In fact, in the top 24 the number of RBs with Bargain Ratings no higher than one percent exceeds the number with Bargain Ratings no lower than 60 percent (four to three).
Not every DK RB is expensive. The big grinders who don’t catch passes seem to be especially cheap on DK (which should probably be expected, given the point-per-reception scoring), and outside of the top 24 more bargains can be found — but if you’re investing in an expensive DK RB this week you should know that he’s not just expensive: He’s relationally expensive. He might even be historically expensive.
And if you’re investing on FD . . . nine of the 24 most-expensive RBs have Bargain Ratings of at least 95 percent. To quote James Carville in the greatest movie ever made about dysfunctional 30-year-old guys forming a fraternity: “Have at it, hoss.”
Let’s slay.
The Big Johnson
Johnson leads DK and FD RBs with 22 and 19 projected points and he has a remarkably high floor because of his ability as a receiver. Through three weeks, he has a 13.93 percent market share of team targets (per Bryan Mears’ Week 4 Market Share Report), good for 17 targets, which he’s turned into 169 yards. He’s basically a young Matt Forte, except he’s bigger, more athletic, and a touchdown producer. At 224 lbs., Johnson has an elite 95th percentile SPARQ-x score, which he’s used across 19 career games to score 16 TDs . . . even though he’s started only eight games.
This week, Johnson faces a Rams defense that this year is mediocre against the run (14th per Football Outsiders) and over the last three weeks has allowed Carlos Hyde to score two TDs, Christine Michael to accrue 86 yards on 14 opportunities, and Charles Sims to accumulate 124 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries and six receptions. What do you think will happen when the Cardinals, who are slate-high eight-point favorites at home and projected to score 25.25 points, decide to run the ball in the second half simply because they can?
Johnson’s the chalkiest of the Big Four, with FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17 to 20 percent on DK and FD.
Also, if I one day discover that he hasn’t christened his penis “David,” I’m going to be disappointed. Then again, I don’t know how I’d discover his penile nickname in the first place.
#FirstWorldProblems
Ring Once for “Yes”
Le’Veon’s back, and he’s ready to blow up this mutha.
DeAngelo Williams is perhaps the best No. 2 RB in the league, transforming himself into a top-end handcuff with RB1 upside in Le’Veon’s absence, but when Le’Veon plays DeAngelo sits (per the RotoViz Game Splits app):
And per the FantasyLabs News feed, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin expects Le’Veon to get a lot of the action.
In case you’ve forgotten, Le’Veon was the No. 1 fantasy RB over the past two seasons. He was basically Le’Veon Balls (per our Trends tool):
Note the significantly higher Consistency on DK. That’s what being perhaps the best receiving back in the league at 225 lbs. will get you on a full PPR platform. And by “you,” I mean “Le’Veon.”
This week, the Steelers are five-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 26.25 points, and they face a Chiefs team with a funnel defense that is currently No. 1 against the pass and No. 16 against the run (per FO) and that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the league through three weeks. Seriously, the Chiefs are probably about to get Le’Veowned.
He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent and 13 to 16 percent on DK and FD. Those numbers are high. At the same time, as we know all too well, Le’Veon could be higher . . .
Miller Lite
That‘s what the Miami version of Lamar should be known as. The Houston version of Lamar is something altogether different: Miller High Life. He’s the f*cking Champagne of RBeers. Through three games, he leads all RBs with 84 touches. The fewest touches he’s gotten in a game this season is 25. This guy’s getting more touches than [insert here the second half of a remarkably obscene joke]. He’s absolutely filthy. His 77.08 percent of team rushes is downright dirty.
The Texans are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 22.5 points. Lamar should have a lot of opportunity to accumulate touches. And per the FantasyLabs ownership projections he’ll be reasonably (though not highly) chalky.
Of course, he’s averaged only 3.6 yards per carry this season and scored no TDs, and this week he’s facing a Titans defense that over the last 16 games has allowed -0.6 and -0.7 DK and FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to RBs and is allowing the third- and fifth-fewest DK and FD points to RBs this season.
Volume is everything, but if you prefer Le’Veon for a little more or Zeke for a little less I understand.
I Like Zeke
I do. He was a great college player: Solid gold in the good-ol’ days of CFB DFS. Of course, I thought that the Cowboys made a mistake by drafting him at No. 4, but whatever. I like him.
Except I really don’t.
He’s priced as RB4 on DK and FD. I get it. He’s third in the NFL with 71 carries, and he has 70.30 percent of his team’s rushes. He doesn’t get targeted a lot, but at least he’s caught 100 percent of his targets to date. Through three games, he’s yet to have fewer than 22 opportunities in a contest.
But in terms of fantasy points he’s the RB15 on DK and RB14 on FD. His production has been steady, but in no game this season has he finished as a top-12 fantasy back. I have no doubt that the massive breakout is coming one of these weeks — and Zeke leads the Cowboys with four rushes and two targets inside the 10-yard line — and the 49ers have already allowed C-Mike and Fozzy Whittaker to rush for over 100 yards against them — so within his range of outcomes Zeke has a potential No. 1 RB overall finish in Week 4, especially if the team focuses more on the running game with Dez Bryant (likely?) to miss the contest . . .
But he also could finish with a ‘mere’ 100 yards while rushing TDs go to quarterback Dak Prescott and fellow RBs Alfred Morris and Lance Dunbar. Zeke’s upside is baked into his RB4 price. His downside isn’t.
The DK Grinders With Hands of Stone
I mentioned them early: The big grinders who don’t catch passes. If you’re looking for RB bargains on DK, most of them will be found in this group. And, honestly, I really like these guys. Because, like Sir Mix-a-Lot, I like big backs. And I’m not saying that you can’t play these guys on FD. I’m just saying that they’re especially intriguing on DK:
• LeGarrette Blount: 97 percent Bargain Rating
• Isaiah Crowell: 90 percent Bargain Rating
• Jeremy Hill: 99 percent Bargain Rating
• Hyde: 98 percent Bargain Rating
Between these four guys, they’ve been targeted 16 times this season. That’s amazingly low. What’s more amazing, though, is that 12 times they accidentally caught the ball.
He Has the Most Accurate and Precise Surname in the NFL
Blount leads the NFL in carries and touchdowns rushing. He has 69.44 percent of the Patriots’ rushes on the season and he easily leads the team with five opportunities inside the 10-yard line. He’s gone over 100 yards twice on the season and has a touchdown in each game. Per our Trends tool:
To this point in the season, Blount is averaging the FantasyLabs definition of Upside (2x his salary-based expectations). And now in Week 4, he gets to play at home against a Bills defense that over the last two weeks has allowed five TDs rushing to Forte and the Big Johnson.
For his entire career, when Blount has surpassed just 12 rushing attempts in a game, he’s done well:
This year he’s yet to have fewer than 22 rushes in a game. At $5,000 on DK, he’s eminently rosterable. At $7,500 on FD . . . maybe not so much.
CroVeryWell
The man named Isaiah isn’t ideal in that he’s a two-down back who’s highly game-flow dependent and is on an 0-3 team starting a rookie third-stringer at QB. It also doesn’t help that in a normal week he’s splitting snaps with Duke Johnson and in this week the Browns are 7.5-point road underdogs. And it really doesn’t help that Crowell is reportedly dealing with a knee injury and has been limited in practice this week.
But Crowell is tied for second in the league in rushing with 274 yards, and he gets double-digit touches every game. More importantly, he’s going against a Washington defense that is allowing the most TDs rushing and second-most fantasy points in the league to opposing RBs as well as a weepingly-high 2016 Opponent Plus/Minus to lead RBs:
And he’s only $4,400 on DK. On FD, $6,600.
A Couple Thoughts on a Last Name
I’m originally from Texas, where accents are considered a good thing. In Texas, there aren’t ‘hills.’ I mean, there are, but no one calls them that. Instead, a hill is referred to by some word that sounds like a combination of “heel,” “heal,” and “he’ll.” If Hill had grown up in Texas, his ears would’ve eventually bled from hearing the pronunciation of his last name.
Man, sometimes I miss Texas. There’s inspiration everywhere.
Anyway . . .
Hill has scored 15 touchdowns over his last 19 games, and people act as if he’s a horrible player who gets lucky each time he scores a touchdown. Guess what? When a guy weighs 233 lbs. and averages 14.95 opportunities per game — as Hill has since last season — he tends to score TDs when he’s on an offense that isn’t horrible.
The Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points against a Miami defense that has recently been thrashed by Blount and the combos of Crowell-Johnson and Michael-Thomas Rawls.
If you’re not adverse to using guys who play on Thursday, Hill is a big option at only $4,100 on DK, where he currently has the second-highest rating among all RBs in the Bales Player Model.
Preceded Only By . . .
And Hyde’s the No. 1 RB in the Bales Model. His price has steadily dropped each slate . . .
. . . and it’s hard to see why. In fact, no DK RB (except for the injured Jamaal Charles) has had a negative one-month Salary Change larger then Hyde’s.
The price drop honestly makes no sense. Hyde is first in the NFL with four TDs rushing, seventh with 58 carries, and 11th with 225 yards on the ground. He’s the clear lead back . . .
. . . on the team with both the second-highest run/pass ratio and the fastest pace in the league (per FO). In what universe does Hyde look like a RB who needs to be priced down each week? Per our Trends tool:
For Week 4, Hyde currently has the slate’s second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at +7.6 and a Le’Veon-esque FantasyLabs ownership projection of nine to 12 percent on DK, where he’s available for only $4,200. On FD, he’s $6,800 — much higher but still palatable.
The Injury Replacement
Bears rookie RB Jordan Howard is likely to be heavily owned this week, given that he’s now the lead back, his competition for touches is either injured (Langford and Ka’Deem Carey) or old, new to the team, and maybe dead (Joique Bell), and his salary is poultry.
You probably think that I mean “paltry,” but I don’t. Howard can literally (in a figurative sense) be had for the cost of a f*cking chicken. He’s $3,700 on DK and $5,600 on FD. Where I come from, that’s chicken money.
I’m tempted to spend 1,000 words laying out the case for why Howard was under-drafted in the fifth round, but I’ll limit myself to saying this: He’s the more athletic Hyde who also happened to be more productive in college.
And this week he’s facing a Detroit defense that is currently 27th against the run and 30th overall.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
• Melvin Gordon: The chalk du jour, especially on DK
• Frank Gore: Too cheap on FD, too old for the NFL, too much market share of team carries (72.73 percent), but too much London potential to ignore
• Devonta Freeman: Slate-high $1,400 DK Salary Change, RB12 in DK PPG
• Giovani Bernard: As two-down backs go on DK, so do pass-catching backs on FD
• Mark Ingram: Declining price, increasing touches
• Charles Sims: Tough spot, but Denver only 25th in pass DVOA vs. RBs
• Christine Michael: Facing a Jets team that is currently 2nd against the run and 30th against the pass
• Theo Riddick: Lions favored and Bears 11th in pass defense against RBs
• Dwayne Washington: Lions favored and Bears 26th against the run
Also, Forte’s facing the Seahawks this week. He has a zero percent Bargain Rating on DK, where he’s priced as the RB8. Maybe he’s a DK fade???
This is what I’m here for.
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the other Week 4 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
