The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Week 4: Quarterbacks
“Arbitrage” is a finance term. In different contexts it has different meanings, but it’s essentially the act of capitalizing on a clear pricing discrepancy, usually between multiple markets. It’s ‘trading the spread.’ In fantasy sports, many types of arbitrage exist. Usually we think of it within a single-market context, but daily fantasy sports arbitrage can also extend across markets to exploit marked pricing divergences.
And that’s basically what our Bargain Rating metric does. It looks at historical pricing patterns on DraftKings and FanDuel to determine how discounted a player is on one site given his price on the other site. It’s an incredibly powerful metric in that it can help you discover where to arbitrage — that is, on which sites to gain exposure to which players — and it also has been shown (via our Trends tool) to be strongly linked to player production as represented by our Plus/Minus metric.
Player-Centric Arbitrage
While the ‘Bargain Rating method’ of cross-market DFS arbitrage is based on aggregated pricing patterns across a number of slates, a more slate-specific and player-centric approach to arbitrage is also available.
For instance, it might be notable that QB Philip Rivers is priced as the QB4 on FD and QB7 on DK. And that Matt Ryan is priced as the DK QB6 and FD QB10. And that Kirk Cousins is priced as the DK QB10 and FD QB16. You’ll need to decide whether those spreads matter to you in Week 4. But, at a minimum, those spreads are tradeable.
Salary Change Arbitrage
Here’s one more DK/FD spread that might intrigue: Price movement. If you look in our Player Models, you’ll see that QB pricing has dropped almost uniformly on DK since the season started. Out of the 30 projected starting DK QBs currently in the models, 24 have seen a negative Salary Change, and only four QBs have salaries that are higher now than they were a month ago: Dak Prescott ($700), Trevor Siemian ($200), Cam Newton ($100), and Matthew Stafford ($100).
As a point of reference: Newton and Stafford right now are third and fourth among QBs in DK points-per-game (PPG) scoring. Last week, Siemian led all DK QBs in points scored and Dak was eighth. That they are the only QBs whose prices have escalated and that their salaries haven’t gone up all that much is pretty incredible.
In comparison, the salary bubble is rapidly expanding on FD. Only 10 FD QBs are cheaper now than they were to begin the year, and only four of those are cheaper by more than $100: Blake Bortles (-$700), Jameis Winston (-$400), Ryan Fitzpatrick (-$400), and Kirk Cousins (-$200). Meanwhile, 10 FD QBs have seen their salaries jump by at least $500 since the season started.
If we want to look at the DK QBs with escalating salaries, here are their FD salary hikes:
• Dak: $2,200
• Siemian: $1,400
• Stafford: $900
• Newton: $700
Even after you account for the difference in salary caps ($50,000 DK and $60,000 FD), the disparity between those price changes is enormous. In Week 1, every FD QB except for three had a Bargain Rating of at least 75 percent. This week, only one FD QB has a Bargain Rating that high: Sarah Marshall’s Rock Band-playing husband.
In short, there’s currently a massive spread between DK and FD in the way that QB pricing is moving. DK QBs are becoming cheaper. FD QBs, costlier.
Trade the spread.
Last Week This Week
In Week 3, I went all in with the Falcons primarily because they were playing at the Coors Field of NFL DFS. Also, Ryan just seemed supremely undervalued on FD at $8,500, considering that he was going against a defense that last year ranked last against the pass per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Ryan didn’t have a huge game, but he finished QB8 and met value (yet again). Now, he enters Week 4 leading the platform with 24.37 PPG and a +6.82 Plus/Minus, and he’s the only QB priced in the top 12 with a 100 percent Consistency Rating.
This week the Falcons are 3.5-point home underdogs with an implied Vegas total of 23.25 points. The over/under is currently 50 points, the slate’s second-highest game total, and the Falcons should be motivated throughout the game to throw the ball. He’s going against the Panthers, who last year ranked No. 2 in pass DVOA and are currently ranked No. 7 by FO — but this year’s defense no longer has lockdown cornerback Josh Norman, and the Panthers’ pass defense has enriched itself to date by playing against Siemian in his first NFL start, Blaine Gabbert in his second start in Chip Kelly’s offense, and Sam Bradford in his second start with his new team.
- That’s a pretty cushy group of QBs to face.
- The Panthers lost to Siemian and Bradford.
- Gabbert scored three touchdowns against them.
- Per our Trends tool, those three QBs combined to do (albeit inconsistently) well against the Panthers.
Ryan has had an easy schedule so far, but let’s not pretend that the Panthers defense also hasn’t or that it’s still the unit that last year allowed to starting QBs a -0.32 Opponent Plus/Minus — which isn’t all that imposing of a mark anyway.
People are acting as if Ryan isn’t a thing. He’s a thing, and he deserves consideration, especially on FD, where he’s priced at QB10 ($7,900) and leads the slate with a 75 Bargain Rating. He’s especially an option in guaranteed prize pools on account of his FantasyLabs projected ownership of two to four percent.
I’m not saying that you must play Ryan this week. I’m just saying that his past schedule and current matchup aren’t strong reasons to dismiss him out of hand and that if you do play him you probably want to do so on FD. He’s priced as the DK QB6 at $7,000.
The Minimalists
DK QBs are becoming cheaper, and so minimum-priced DK QBs in theory are worth less than they otherwise would be. Why pay all the way down for a $5,000 QB when Tyrod Taylor — the QB with the fourth-highest rating in the Bales Model — is available for only $400 more after a -$1,500 Salary Change, the slate’s largest negative shift?
Contrarily, a minimum-priced FD QB should be worth relatively more with prices on that platform increasing. If you could find a dirt-cheap guy who actually performed with a hint of gold dust, then you’d be in a great position to have a big week.
And of course there are always ownership concerns to take into account, but in general what I just said from a Plus/Minus perspective holds true.
Let’s look at the guys with minimum DK and/or FD salaries:
• Brian Hoyer: $5,000 DK, $6,000 FD
• Cody Kessler: $5,000 DK, $6,300 FD
• Case Keenum: $5,000 DK, $6,500 FD
• Gabbert: $5,000 DK, $6,400 FD
Ugh, I guess.
His Middle Name is “Axel”
Starting QB Jay Cutler might actually play in this game, but if he doesn’t then Hoyer is someone to consider. On FD, he has the third-highest rating of any QB in the Bales Model, a slate-high +5.2 Projected Plus/Minus, and the slate’s second-highest Bargain Rating at 69 percent. On DK, he has the highest Plus/Minus to date at +8.49.
In Week 3, even with the Bears scoring only 17 points Hoyer was able to amass 317 yards and two touchdowns passing on 49 attempts. In Week 4, he’s at home facing a Lions defense that is currently last in the league at pass defense (per FO) and has allowed a league-high 10 touchdowns passing to opposing QBs so far. The Bears might not even need to reach their implied total of 21.75 points for Hoyer to exceed value.
Another Andy Dalton
Last week I suggested that Kessler was comparable to Andy Dalton and other NFL QBs on the basis of size, draft pedigree, and college passing production. Per the RotoViz Box Score Scout app:
In his NFL debut, Kessler ‘disappointed’ with a -3.21 DK Plus/Minus performance. In actuality, his performance is reason for optimism.
He completed 63.64 percent of his 33 passes for 244 yards. He lost one yard on the ground. He had no TDs, but he did have a two-point conversion.
Compare that to the NFL debut of Prescott (a QB to whom Kessler is comparable, per RV). Dak completed only 55.56 percent of his 45 attempts for 227 yards. He gained 12 yards on the ground but, like Kessler, finished with no TDs.
With another week of practice and with Terrelle Pryor taking fewer QB snaps, Kessler could build on his first NFL start and finish Week 4 with 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns against the Redskins, especially since Washington’s league-worst run defense (per FO) could help the Browns sustain drives. And the Redskins haven’t allowed a lot of passing TDs to this point, but they are one of only seven teams to allow an average of more than 300 yards passing per game.
With a FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent, Kessler could surprise this week as part of a stack with the emerging Pryor.
He Showed Us
Last week, Kalifornia Keenum made everyone he’s ever met sorry for all the times they made fun of his spaghetti arm. He was an utter revelation against the Buccaneers as he exceeded his DK salary-based expectation by less than a point in what might’ve been the best game he’ll have all season: a 26-attempt outing that he turned into 190 yards, two TDs, one interception, a 53.85 percent completion rate, and one yard rushing.
This week, the Rams are eight-point road underdogs implied to score a slate low of 17.25 points against a Cardinals team whose defense has allowed a staunch -1.8 Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs over the last 16 games and been a top-five unit against the pass since last year (per FO).
Multiple Six-Packs of Coors Lite
On the Week 3 Fantasy Flex pod, you might’ve heard me enter into a few skill-game propositions in which I was taking the pro-Gabbert side. I was also pro-Gabbert in last week’s QB Breakdown. The results were subsatisfactory — and “subsatisfactory” probably isn’t even a real word but I need to invent a new lexicon for adequately voicing my ‘displeasement,’ know what I mean?
But it’s a new week, and Gabbert has some factors in his favor:
- On DK, he has a +0.34 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency on 0.1 percent ownership.
- This week he’s going against a Dallas defense that allowed a +8.49 DK Plus/Minus to Hoyer last week and a +4.02 mark through Weeks 1-3, per our Trends tool. The Cowboys have allowed no fewer than 19.3 DK points to a QB this year.
- Gabbert will be owned in almost no tournament lineups this week. His FantasyLabs projected ownership is zero to one percent, and recency bias should play a role in his going under-owned.
- He was rostered in literally zero percent of tournament lineups last week, per our Trends tool.
Even if a QB is legally deceased, he should be rostered in more than zero percent of lineups as long as he’s starting the game.
I’m not saying that you should roster Gabbert in even one percent of your lineups. I’m saying that rostering him in even just one lineup could give you an ownership edge in the event that a QB playing in a fast-paced offense ranked 14th in scoring happens to have a good game against a pass defense currently ranked 23rd (per FO). That’s very possible.
The Super Models
I mentioned them earlier: Rivers and Cousins. Right now, Rivers is the highest-rated DK QB in the Bales Model. Cousins, the highest-rated FD QB. If we look at the CSURAM88 Model, Andrew Luck is the top-rated DK passer. In the Levitan Model, Bradford is the No. 1 DK QB. Let’s look at these four Zoolanders.
A Rivers Throws Through It
The case for Rivers is pretty simple: He might be without star wide receiver Keenan Allen, pass-catching ace back Danny Woodhead, and future Hall-of-Fame tight end Antonio Gates, but . . . actually I guess the case for Rivers isn’t so simple.
Nevertheless, this week he’s playing against a Saints defense that last year ranked last in the league in pass DVOA and over the last 16 games has allowed a slate-worst +8.3 Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs. The Saints have allowed only three passing TDs this year, but they’re still giving up almost 300 yards passing per game and have allowed 96 points so far on the season — the league’s second-worst mark. They currently rank 27th against the pass, per FO.
But a problem (bizarrely) is that this game is in San Diego, not New Orleans, where the Superdome is the Coors Field of NFL DFS. Unlike other teams, the Saints actually allow a higher Opponent QB Plus/Minus at home than they do on the road. Why is that?
A Brees Tangent: #RevengeGame
The Saints defense is probably worse at home because QB Drew Brees has massive home/road splits. Per the RotoViz Game Splits app:
Those splits put additional pressure on the opposing offense to score, and the Saints defense is bad enough to be exploited easily if a team is motivated to do so.
Given the Brees/Saints home/road dynamic (and Rivers’ lack of established receiving weapons), it’s possible that Rivers won’t ball out the way we’d expect him to against a horrible defense.
But here’s the thing: This isn’t a typical road game for Brees. This is a revenge game against the franchise that let him go. This is a ‘this used to be my home’ game. And in the decade since he left San Diego, Brees has exacted revenge against the Chargers the couple of times he’s faced them:
What’s more is that, when Brees was the Chargers starter, he was better in San Diego than on the road:
It’s possible that Brees might still have something of a ‘contrarian home field advantage’ in San Diego this weekend. This week he’s priced as a top-three QB on both DK and FD. That makes some sense: He’s a top-two fantasy QB on the season, and he’s facing a Chargers team that has allowed 1,023 yards passing so far, the second-highest mark in the league.
The River Returns
As all of this relates to Rivers: If Brees plays as if San Diego is his home, Rivers could be forced into a pass-heavy game script that helps him return value, especially on DK, where he’s $6,900 with a 76 percent Bargain Rating and a slate-high FantasyLabs projected ownership of 17-20 percent. On FD, he’s $8,500 and carrying the slate’s fourth-highest QB salary.
Lots of Cousins in That Family
I can’t tell you in how many of our Pro Models the surging Cousins is the top-rated FD QB. Suffice it to say, there’s a lot of Cousins at the top of our FD Models. The guy is cheap, priced as the QB16 on FD at $7,600, and he has a slate-high FantasyLabs projected ownership of 17-20 percent. The Redskins have the second-most yards passing in the league and run the ball less than all but three other teams.
The Redskins are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score the slate’s second-highest total of 26.75 points against an 0-3 Browns team that is tied for 6th and 8th in passing TDs and NFL points allowed. Just last week Ryan Tannehill exploited the Browns for 319 yards and three touchdowns passing on 39 attempts.
Lucky London
You might be automatically inclined not to roster Luck this week because the Colts-Jaguars game — the first London game of the season — isn’t on the main slate. Fading Luck and the Colts might be a huge mistake. That’s all I’m gonna say about that.
In general, you don’t need much motivation most weeks to start Luck.
I Suppose
Bradford is only $5,100 on DK with a 94 percent Bargain Rating and in the prime time slate is almost certain to be the lowest-owned QB out of the Ben Roethlisberger–Eli Manning–Alex Smith-Bradford quartet. But Bradford is more than just a cheap QB. The Vikings are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 24 points against a Giants defense that currently ranks 22nd against the pass per FO and over the last 16 games has allowed a +4.3 Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs, the slate’s third-highest mark.
Plus, the Vikings are without running back Adrian Peterson and on the season they’re averaging a league-worst 2.1 yards per carry. Given that the Giants are currently ranked seventh against the run, the Vikings will have minimal incentive to rush the ball in Week 4.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way:
• Newton: Facing a Falcons team that has allowed the most TDs passing in the league
• Joe Flacco: Going against a Raiders defense allowing the most yards passing in the league
• Jimmy Garoppolo: At home with a presumably healthy Rob Gronkowski and a 99 DK Bargain Rating . . . if Jimmy actually plays
Also, Russell Wilson is priced as a top-10 QB on both sites . . . and he has a Consistency Rating of zero percent. If he plays, his ownership could be inordinately low for a player with his talent — and maybe rightfully so?
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the other Week 4 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
