The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 3 Tight Ends
TEs are like lawyers: They’re all the same till the moment you need one.
Also, you usually end up paying thousands of dollars only to feel like you got screwed with your pants on.
Let’s do this.
To Gronk or Not to Gronk
As I said last week . . .
As I write this, we really have no f*cking clue.
Rob Gronkowski is currently in our Player Models, but we haven’t received any confirmation yet that he will play. . . . Gronk has practiced before, only to sit on game day.
Honestly, we should probably hope that Gronk does return . . . so that we can fade him. . . .
There are multiple reasons to fade him:
- He’s injured.
- He has a top-three tight end salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
- He’s now playing without even Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, and the Texans allow a slate-low -0.2 Opponent Plus/Minus to TEs.
- He’s partnered at tight end with Martellus Bennett, who is Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 TE through two weeks and who could see more action than we otherwise would expect — action that would’ve gone to Gronk in previous seasons.
Of course, there are also many reasons to like Gronk if he does play:
- He’s Gronk.
- He’s now cheaper than he usually is, only $300 and $1,000 more expensive than Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen on DK and actually $500 and $200 cheaper than Olsen and Reed on FD. His salary has fallen $600 on DK and $1,400 on FD since the season opener.
- The HOU-NE game is a pick’em, so if Gronk is active then he should actually play and will likely be relied upon and needed throughout the game.
- In theory, it’s possible that having another strong TE on the field will enable Gronk to face less defensive attention (at times) from linebackers and safeties.
Per our Trends tool, TEs who are comparable in current price and Salary Change haven’t been awful:
Of course, on the one hand, this isn’t quite the Gronk we’ve come to expect:
On the other hand, the “Past Results” shows that this is a very Gronk-heavy trend. He’s the predominant guy in the cohort, so it’s very possible that when he returns he could simply play like Gronk, not ‘Gronk at this price and with this declining salary.’
But, finally, on the third hand, we should keep in mind that both the simple Gronk and the ‘Gronk at this price and with this declining salary’ shown above are not truly representative of the Gronk we have now: A guy returning from injury and playing without his starting QB against the least DFS-friendly defense in the NFL.
Again, as I said last week . . .
There’s still enough value in this slate for you both to roster an active Gronk and to roster capable players at other positions. But there simply might be too many concerns with Gronk to risk rostering him in his first game back.
That’s going to be the case until he finally has returned.
The Usual Suspects
If you’re not playing Gronk, there’s a decent chance that you’re thinking about playing one of these next three guys.
For Kids Who Can’t Reed Good
In last week’s TE Breakdown, I encouraged you to fade Reed, saying, “It really might be too much to expect Reed to be his normal self in Week 2.”
It’s not as if Reed was horrible last week, but he did finish with a negative Plus/Minus — which is horrible when you’re paying up for a guy.
This week, though, I’m telling you to invest in Reed if you want. If you like to pay up for TEs, Reed might be your guy in Week 3.
His 18 targets lead all TEs, and he leads “the Reedskins” with a 20.24 percent target market share. He also leads all TEs this week with a 15.5-point projection, and he’s going against a Giants defense that over the last 12 months has allowed the slate’s second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus to TEs. In fact, in 2015, only the Saints allowed more yards and fantasy points to TEs than the Giants.
He’s in a spot that’s hard to ignore.
It’s Not 2015 Anymore
Right now, Olsen leads his position in fantasy scoring on both DK and FD. In Plus/Minus, he’s first on DK and fourth on FD. It’s hard to find a TE who has been a better DFS play than Olsen through two weeks. And of all the TEs, wide receivers, and running backs on the Panthers, he’s by far played the most snaps (per Bryan Mears’ Week 2 Opportunity Report). He’s vitally important to his team and to the TE position as a whole within the DFS space.
But this isn’t 2015 anymore. WR Kelvin Benjamin is back, and now Olsen is second on the team in targets and he’s yet to be targeted inside the 10-yard line.
There’s nothing especially notable about Olsen’s matchup against the Vikings, although it’s possible that he might get more targets than usual since Minnesota does match up well against opposing WRs.
If you want to start Olsen, that’s fine. If not, that’s probably also fine.
It’s Not 2015 Anymore (Part II)
We can’t say yet that Delanie Walker is in trouble, but he’s being out-snapped by WR Tajae Sharpe and out-targeted by Sharpe and RB DeMarco Murray. This season he’s even been out-targeted inside the 10-yard line by Murray three to one.
It’s true that last week Walker did strong work on his six targets — but that was against a Lions defense that has already allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the season.
Fortunately, Walker is saved this week by another nice matchup, this time against the Raiders, who last year were tied for the second-most TDs allowed to TEs with 11.
He’s not the target hog that he was last year, but in Week 3 that might not matter . . . as long as he gets targeted near the end zone.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
• Travis Kelce: Leads DK and FD TEs currently with eight and nine Pro Trends
• Jacob Tamme: Eight targets in both Weeks 1 and 2, facing a Saints team that allowed the most fantasy points and second-most touchdowns to TEs last year
• Coby Fleener: Averaging six targets per game and facing a Falcons defense that last year allowed the third-most fantasy points and yards receiving to TEs
• Clive Walford: Averaging six targets per game and facing a Titans defense that last year allowed the second-most TDs to TEs
• Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers: Facing a Lions team that last year allowed the most TDs to the position
• Gary Barnidge: Reunited with quarterback Josh McCown Oops
• Martellus Bennett: Another Gronk-less game?
• Brent Celek and Trey Burton: No Zach Ertz
• Antonio Gates: No Keenan Allen and leads the Chargers in targets inside the 10-yard line
• Jason Witten: Tied with Reed for most TE targets at 18
• Vance McDonald: 66.7 percent of the team’s touchdowns receiving . . . so far . . .
Honestly, if you’re looking to go cheap at TEs, it’s a pretty decent week.
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the other Week 3 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
