The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Week 3: Running Backs
From the ’90s grunge poet who built a career by pretending that he didn’t want to be famous:
I seem to recognize your face
Haunting, familiar, yet I can’t seem to place it
Cannot find the candle of thought to light your name
Lifetimes are catching up with meAll these changes taking place
I wish I’d seen the place
But no one’s ever taken meHearts and thoughts they fade, fade away
Most people think that Pearl Jam’s Eddie Vedder wrote that song about an elderly woman behind the counter in a small town.
Wrong.
It’s actually about RBs.
They fade, fade away.
“Gliding Over All”
That’s the name of the Breaking Bad episode in which 10 inmates are brutally and systematically murdered within the span of about two minutes.
That’s what Week 2 felt like for RBs.
On the one hand, it’s terrible.
On the other hand — this is awesome . . . in a really unfortunate way.
Let’s look at all the RBs who suffered injuries in Week 2 and their running mates who might capitalize in Week 3 (and maybe beyond):
• Danny Woodhead (knee): Melvin Gordon and Dexter McCluster
• Adrian Peterson (knee): Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata
• Doug Martin (hamstring): Charles Sims and Peyton Barber
• Jonathan Stewart (hamstring): Cameron Artis-Payne, Fozzy Whittaker, and Mike Tolbert
• Ameer Abdullah (foot): Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington
• Arian Foster (groin): Jay Ajayi, Kenyan Drake, and Damien Williams
• Rashad Jennings (thumb): Shane Vereen and Orleans Darkwa
• Thomas Rawls (contusion): Christine Michael
Let’s slay.
67 Percent of the Time He Works Every Time
Woodhead entered the NFL in 2008 as perhaps one of the best undrafted free agents of all time — but by the time 2016 is over three of his nine NFL years will have been almost entirely missed due to injury. Woody deserves a sh*tload of respect as the original gangsta of daily fantasy sports pass-catching value out of the backfield, but very soon it will be time for Bilbo to sail with Gandalf and the elves to the Undying Lands.
Of course, Woody’s injury clears the way in San Diego for MG3, who has already asserted himself this season. Last year MG3 scored less than a nerd at prom, but this year (albeit through only two games) he’s first in the NFL with three touchdowns rushing and tied for second with five rushing attempts inside the five-yard line.
Per our Trends tool, MG3 is sixth among RBs on DraftKings and FanDuel with 20.85 and 18.60 fantasy points and fifth and sixth with +11.25 and +10.68 DK and FD Plus/Minus values. He’s $5,800 and $7,100 on DK and FD and slated to get workhorse carries against a Colts defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing RBs this year.
Woody’s injury has also enabled McCluster to latch on once again to the play-calling teat of former Titans head coach and current Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. Anytime you can add to your roster a small and limited player who just got cut from another team that you helped to a 5-27 record over the last two years — especially when he’s one of ‘your guys’ — you probably should. Ineligible on DK this week, McCluster has a minimum salary of $4,500 on FD. Per the RotoViz Game Splits app, McCluster was targeted at least three times in three of Whiz’s seven 2015 games with the Titans.
He did well in those games.
On the one hand, there’s a chance that Dex could get some targets right away in Week 3. He has some hidden standalone value. On the other hand, Dex has little chance of substantially eating into MG3’s snaps in his first week with the team. He’s the chalk de la chalk this week with position-high FantasyLabs ownership projections on both DK and FD.
AD: All Done
From an underrated-yet-still-really-sh*tty 2001 movie:
Coach: Can he play?
Athletic Trainer: He’s in a coma.
Coach: Answer my question! Can he play?!
That even just a few days ago the Vikings were spewing nonsense about Peterson potentially playing through a torn meniscus is ridiculous. Following today’s surgery, AD is likely to miss anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It’s possible that he has played his final game in Minnesota.
In his place, the third-year McKinnon is expected to thrive — he’s an unbelievable athlete with a 100 percentile SPARQ-x score, per Player Profiler — but he probably won’t thrive in Week 3. The Vikings are seven-point road underdogs with an implied Vegas total of 18 points. McKinnon will be facing a Panthers defense that last year was No. 6 in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
McKinnon is rosterable at $3,800 on DK and $5,800 on FD, especially as he’s been named the starter, but he carries lots of risk. As Bryan Mears has revealed in the Week 2 Opportunity Report, McKinnon this year has barely outsnapped Asiata, who is trusted by the team as a receiver and pass blocker. Additionally, Asiata currently has the team’s second-largest share of rushing attempts (20.83 percent) and is the only back to have touched the ball this season inside the 10-yard line.
He led the Vikings backfield with 10 touchdowns, 882 scrimmage yards, 525 snaps, 164 carries, 63 targets, and 44 receptions in 2014, when Peterson missed most of the season.
McKinnon should play ahead of Asiata, but if the Vikings go away from the running game in Week 3 it’s possible that Asiata could steal work in the passing game — and he’s always a threat to vulture touchdowns. Asiata’s cheap ($3,000 on DK and $4,600 on FD), but you can’t play him outside of a contrarian tournament strategy . . . and you can’t play McKinnon with confidence because of him — but McKinnon still has top-12 FantasyLabs ownership projections at DK and FD.
This Blurb is Much Shorter
Sims is a pass-catching savant who last year had 1,000 scrimmage yards and an average of 11.38 DK points per game despite playing second fiddle to Martin the entire season. Now he’s the undisputed lead back with Martin expected to miss a few weeks. His Week 3 matchup doesn’t seem great, but Sims is a three-down back who can accumulate points in a variety of ways and the Rams defense has allowed a +1.4 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to RBs over the last year.
The Buccaneers are five-point home favorites implied to score 23.5 points, and Sims is a guy who has hit his Upside a remarkable 75 percent of the time in the last 16 games. He has top-five FantasyLabs ownership projections on DK and FD.
A big-bodied undrafted rookie, Barber benefits from Martin’s absence in that now people have more incentive to know that he exists.
The Upside is CAPped
The Daily Show is expected to be a daily no-show for at least the next two weeks, and in his place we should see some Cerberus of CAP, Fozzy Bear, and the guy Eddie Lacy is becoming. When J-Stew missed the final three games of the regular season last year, it was The Artis who stepped up to fill the void (per our Trends tool):
With 66.7 percent Consistency and 33.3 percent Upside, Artis-Payne reached value each game that Stewart missed in 2015.
CAP has a tough Week 3 matchup in that he’s facing a Vikings defense that over the last year has allowed a -0.3 Opponent Plus/Minus to RBs — and he’s also likely to lose third-down work to Whittaker, who last week had four targets and 131 scrimmage yards in relief of Stewart and who’s $3,800 on DK, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating — and there’s always the possibility that he could lose goal-line work to Tub of Goo ($3,000 on DK and $4,800 on FD) — but there are reasons to like CAP in Week 3.
He’s priced cheaply — his salaries match Tolbert’s precisely — and the Panthers are seven-point home favorites. Historically, RBs comparable to CAP in price, situation, and point projection do well:
CAP right now has FantasyLabs ownership projections of zero to one percent on DK and FD. Is it that hard to imagine him getting a lot of carries and scoring a couple of touchdowns if the Panthers lead most of the game?
A Soupçon of Sadness
In Week 1 of his sophomore campaign, Abdullah scored 23.0 and 20.5 DK and FD points. In Week 2, he injured his foot and has been placed on the Injured Reserve. Riding the Bishop Sankey Highway to the state of irrelevance, Abdullah is out for at least the next eight weeks.
In his place, the Theologian is slated to start for the Lions. As good as Riddick was last year essentially as a slot receiver who lined up in the backfield — leading the position with 80 receptions — this year Riddick is actually getting carries out of the backfield and has become more of an all-around player. The fantasy results speak for themselves, as he’s a top-10 DK and FD RB in fantasy points per game, average Plus/Minus, and fantasy points per snap (FP/S).
In Week 3 the Lions are eight-point underdogs playing in Green Bay. They will need to throw the ball, and Riddick might actually be the best receiver they have. At $4,900 on DK and $6,400 on FD, Riddick has a top-five FantasyLabs ownership projection on each site.
Also, keep your eye out on W² — because he’s a legitimate three-down back in a way that Riddick simply isn’t. A 6’0″ and 223 lb. specimen from the University of Washington, the rookie leads the team with carries inside the 10-yard line and already has a rushing TD despite having only 6.82 percent of the team’s total carries. An accomplished receiver in college who also returns kicks, Washington has the hidden potential to steal touches from Riddick in every way possible.
He’s played only 13 NFL snaps, but right now he leads all FD RBs with 0.77 FP/S. On DK, he’s third with 0.77. The minimum $4,500 on FD and $3,600 on DK, Washington is unlikely to go off in Week 3, but he’s already limiting Riddick’s upside.
“RBBC” is a Four-Letter Word
Per the FantasyLabs news feed — which you can find at the bottom of this article — a ‘running back by committee’ is likely to replace Foster in Week 3. In a perfect world either Ajayi, Drake, or Da. Williams would emerge as the workhorse to take control of the backfield, as all three of them are backs with good size and athleticism and all were good receivers in college.
Of course, if this were a perfect world, one of these three guys would’ve been good enough to emerge in the preseason and the Dolphins wouldn’t have needed to sign Foster in the first place, so . . . you know.
In Week 3, the Dolphins are 10-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against a Cleveland defense that last year was 26th in rush DVOA. On DK and FD not one of these guys is more expensive than $4,000 and $5,900. At those prices, someone is a value — but it’s really hard to say who.
If I had to choose, I would go with Ajayi — the guy who (despite being inactive in Game 1) leads the triumvirate in snaps (37) and market share of targets (5.80 percent) and rushes (13.89 percent) . . . but I don’t really like having to choose.
He’s Going to Play
Jennings missed the end of New York’s Week 2 contest with a thumb injury, but reports are that he practiced on Wednesday with only a small wrap. He’ll play in Week 3. Vereen might see a few more touches, but so far those are the only Giants RBs to carry the ball and hopefully that’s how it will remain in Week 3: There’s no need to Darkwa this backfield.
This week, the Giants are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.5 points against a Redskins defense that over the last 16 games has allowed a +1.1 Opponent Plus/Minus to RBs. Over the last year Jennings has led the Giants with 66.7 and 57.7 percent of the team’s rushing touchdowns and yards, and this season he has 56.36 percent of the carries.
With a disgusting two percent (not a) Bargain Rating on DK and only 5.88 percent of the team’s targets, Jennings should probably be rostered only on FD, where he has a $5,800 salary and 98 percent Bargain Rating.
With the Giants big home favorites, Jennings should experience positive game flow. Of course, it’s mildly concerning that through two games Vereen (not the bigger Jennings) has all four of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line.
He’s Going to (Try to) Play
Rawls practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and is likely to play this week — and he’s in a great spot, as the Seahawks are 9.5-point home favorites implied to score 25 points against the 49ers, who have allowed a +2.5 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD, where Rawls is only $6,400 and has nine Pro Trends — but Rawls has been vastly outplayed by C-Mike this year (-5.09 vs. +2.03 FD Plus/Minus) and he’s recovering from an injury.
This week the Seahawks likely won’t need Rawls to handle many touches in order to win — and he might not even be the back whose touches give the Seahawks the greatest odds of winning. Michael is priced up to $6,900 on FD, but on DK he’s a more palatable $5,000 with a 75 percent Bargain Rating. Per our Trends tool, RBs comparable in situation, point projection, salary, and Bargain Rating have historically provided strong value:
Michelangelo has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of two to four percent on DK.
The 80-20 Rule
Last week, we had five running backs with at least 80 percent of their teams’ carries.
This week, there’s only one guy left in the cohort. You know who he is.
DeAngelo Williams has had 87.88 percent of Pittburgh’s carries over the first two weeks. Unsurprisingly, he’s also been first in DK and FD points and Plus/Minus over that period.
What are some takeaways?
- DeAngelo probably deserves to have top-two DK and FD salaries given his usage.
- It’s incredibly hard for a RB to dominate his backfield game to game in a total fashion.
- He has tons of opportunity because he has no other legitimate RB to compete with right now.
Note that Point No. 3 applies to at least a couple of the injury fill-ins this week. We shouldn’t expect to see MG3 and Sims both get 80 percent of the team carries in Week 3 — but it really might happen.
Jets at Chiefs
The 2008 RB draft was legendary, and perhaps the best backs from that class — Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles — might face each other in Week 3 for only the second time in their careers.
The matchup looks good for Forte. Through two weeks the Chiefs rank 21st against the run (per FO) and they’ve allowed the NFL’s most yards rushing to opposing RBs. Forte isn’t exorbitantly priced at $7,000 and $7,500 on FD and DK, and he’s without a doubt the team’s workhorse, with 78.77 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, 78.79 percent of the carries, 15.15 percent of the targets, 80 percent of the team’s RB carries inside the 10-yard line, and three touchdowns rushing on the season. The Jets are three-point road underdogs — which might not seem great for Forte, but it will likely serve to keep his ownership down and ensure that he’s involved throughout the game.
As for Charles, it’s possible that he doesn’t play in Week 3. If he does, he’s only $5,600 on DK, $7,000 on FD, and likely to have dismally low ownership because of Spencer Ware‘s emergence and the matchup with the Jets defense, which last year had the top-ranked rush DVOA. Don’t go overboard, but when else are you going to have the opportunity to roster JC Superstar when he’s cheaper and less-owned than usual and playing at home on a Chiefs team favored by three points?
If Charles doesn’t play — and maybe even if he does — think about Ware in this spot. He’s just $5,700 and $6,300 on DK and FD and has scored the fourth-most fantasy points among RBs. He has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of two to four percent on both sites. We are talking about the only RB on the team with a carry inside the 10-yard line — and that team is favored at home. There’s potential.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
• David Johnson (ARI): Second in the NFL with five rushes inside the 10-yard line
• C.J. Anderson (DEN): Top-five salary, top-three production
• Todd Gurley (LA): Top-five salary, not top-three production
• Lamar Miller (HOU): Significantly cheaper on FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating
• Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): Leads the team in rushes and targets within the 10-yard line
• Mark Ingram: Only 13.5 touches per game this season, still the top-rated FD RB in the Bales Player Model
I could also tell you that LeGarrette Blount has 25.5 carries per game and is the only Patriot with a carry inside the 10-yard line, but what’s the point?
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the other Week 3 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
