The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 3: Quarterbacks
When the Battlestar Galactica sees its first action in the Second Cylon War, the rugged Colonel Tigh orders Deck Chief Tyrol to sacrifice 85 of his deckhands by sealing off a section of the ship in order to save the entire vessel. After the ship is secure, they have this exchange:
Tyrol: There’s a lot of rooks in there.
Tigh: No one’s a rookie anymore.
You’re d*mn right no one’s a rookie anymore.
We’re in Week 3. The NFL regular season is already 12.5 percent done. We’re far enough into the season for four rookies who entered training camp as third-string benchwarmers to be starting at QB for their teams.
The NFL is not for those with fragile bodies.
The Four Rookie Horsemen of the Week 3 Apocalypse
How often does it happen that four rookie quarterbacks are starting in Week 3? Per Pro Football Reference, it’s happened only once in the sortable history of the database: 2012.
• Andrew Luck
• Robert Griffin III
• Russell Wilson
• Ryan Tannehill
• Brandon Weeden
Five rookies started for NFL franchises in Week 3 of the 2012 season, although it’s debatable whether Weeden should be considered a rookie — even in his first NFL season he was old enough to be Davis Mattek’s grandfather — and all of those guys were at least hopeful franchise quarterbacks: Four first-round picks and maybe the greatest third-round pick of all time.
Next to them, our four 2016 horsemen don’t really compare:
• Carson Wentz
• Dak Prescott
• Cody Kessler
• Jacoby Brissett
Saddle up and ride.
I Was Wrong
#QBWentz is winning and looking (fairly) good doing it. Of course, he has earned his +1.5 and +4.0 DraftKings and FanDuel Plus/Minus values to this point in the season against the Browns and the Bears, who last year were 27th and 23rd against the pass (per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). A good runner in college, Wentz has been a massive failure as a scrambler so far. He leads all QBs in the slate with eight rushes on the season — and he has a slate-worst zero percent success rate.
Wentz ranks near the bottom of the league with 0.35 fantasy points per opportunity (FP/O) — but at least he’s getting lots of opportunities, as evidenced by his top-three 0.42 fantasy points per snap (FP/S) and top-eight 13 red-zone (RZ) pass attempts. With the slate’s eighth-highest 6.89 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) mark, Wentz has understandably experienced a top-three Salary Change of $500 on DK and a whopping $2,200 on FD, where he has a bottom-three Bargain Rating of 23 percent.
If you want exposure to Wentz this week, get it on DK, where he has an 83 percent Bargain Rating and is only $5,500 — just $500 more expensive than Brissett and Kessler.
After two weeks, it looks like I was wrong about Wentz as an NFL QB. He’s been very good for a rookie. But you still might want to avoid him this week. He’s currently projected for only 17.2 points against the Steelers.
You Were Wrong
When you wrote off Prescott after his Week 1 ‘disappointment,’ you were wrong. He did better than his Week 1 numbers suggested, as both Cole Beasley and Dez Bryant couldn’t hang on to would-be touchdown passes that hit their hands. In Week 2, he responded with 292 yards passing and a six-yard rushing touchdown, earning +2.53 and +3.45 DK and FD Plus/Minus values against the Redskins.
It might not happen in Week 3, but the breakout is coming: He has 12 RZ pass attempts on the season but is yet to throw a touchdown. He averaged 64.9 yards rushing per game as a three-year starter in college but has only three rush attempts in the NFL. He hasn’t turned the ball over yet. He’s 12th in the NFL with a 76.3 Total QBR.
Like Wentz, he has experienced a massive price hike at DK and FD, so he’s not as cheap as he once was — but Prescott is still cheap in that he’s a guy who has the 25th QB salary on both sites and is going against a Bears team that over the last year has allowed the third-highest Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs.
He may yet reveal himself to be Presgod. He has a top-eight rating for DK and FD in the Bales Player Model.
Another Andy Dalton?
Browns head coach Hue Jackson was the offensive coordinator for the Bengals the previous two seasons, and it’s possible that he sees a little bit of Andy Dalton in third-rounder Cody Kessler. Per the RotoViz Box Score Scout app, they are comparable:
Based on his size, draft pedigree, and college passing production, Kessler is similar to a number of QBs who have flashed in the NFL, including Dak.
Last week, Josh McCown had a positive Plus/Minus. Last year, Jackson coordinated Dalton and the comparable A.J. McCarron to +2.93 and +2.19 DK and FD Plus/Minus values in their 16 combined starts (per our Trends tool).
Kessler is the minimum $5,000 and $6,000 on DK and FD, and he’s facing a Miami defense that last year was 29th in pass DVOA.
The odds that Kessler isn’t horrible in Week 3 are probably higher than his ownership will be.
The Eighth
On February 3, 2002, Tom Brady became a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. Since then, the Patriots have invested eight draft picks in QBs, the last three of whom have all been top-100 picks. Only the Broncos and Jets have invested more picks in QBs in the last 15 drafts. Even with one of the greatest QBs in NFL history starting for them, the Patriots have heavily invested in the position. They really value QBs.
In 2008, backup QB Matt Cassel started 15 games for the Patriots in Brady’s absence. We all think of Cassel as a sh*tty QB — and we probably should — but he was the No. 8 fantasy QB for the year. No one else is Brady, but the Pats basically were with Cassel . . .
. . . what the Saints have been with Drew Brees for the last 10 years.
On the one hand, that last sentence is ridiculous in so many ways. On the other hand, it’s absolutely true on a points-per-drive basis, and the other numbers are probably much more similar than most people would anticipate.
And in Weeks 1-2 of this season, Jimmy G. studded it up — on less than one percent ownership! — with +2.39 and +3.15 DK and FD Plus/Minus values, even though he exited his Week 2 game early. As of now, he leads the NFL with 11.0 points added and a 90.8 Total QBR (per ESPN).
All I’m saying is that Brissett is $5,000 on DK, $6,200 on FD, and likely to be low-owned in a tough matchup against a strong Houston defense. He was a good runner in college — he had four rush attempts in limited Week 2 action — and he’s playing for a coach who has a history of getting production out of QBs whose surnames don’t rhyme with “lady.”
Using Brisset in a Pats stack is almost certain to give you a unique tournament lineup with lots of salary space. And all of this has been said under the assumption that, you know, Brisset (and not Jimmy G.) is actually the QB who will be starting on Thursday night.
The Minimalists
On DK are three other QBs besides Kessler and Brisset who are available for the minimum $5,000 salary: Case Keenum, Brian Hoyer, and Blaine Gabbert.
A Hypothetical Question
In 2016, which University of Houston QB would be the best player in the NFL?
• The 1989 Heisman-winning 48-year-old No. 7 overall pick Andre Ware
• The noodle-armed Football Bowl Subdivision all-time record-holding Keenum
• The 5’11” and 190 lb. option-running senior Heisman-hopeful Greg Ward Jr.
The answer to that question really isn’t obvious.
Bartleby, the Scrivener
I would prefer not to write a blurb on Hoyer.
“F*cking Score Points”
Doubt a Chip Kelly quarterback at your own peril. In the QB Breakdown last week, I gestured toward the case for The Gold Casket:
I’m not saying that you should actually play Gabbert. But at his price he’s worth considering in guaranteed prize pools, especially given his FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent.
After I published that piece, I went on the RotoUnderworld podcast and said that the 49ers-Panthers game was being highly undervalued by Vegas. And here’s an old-school instance of me pointing at the scoreboard:
Gabbert has been a strong daily fantasy sports asset so far, on both DK . . .
. . . and FD . . .
. . . at an embarrassingly low level of ownership.
It’s true that Gabbert . . .
- Probably sucks
- Is playing against the Seahawks in Seattle
. . . but last year Gabbert played against the Seahawks in Seattle, and he more than returned value:
Yes, that sample couldn’t be any smaller, and, yes, the Seahawks since 2014 have ‘gifted’ QBs with the worst Opponent Plus/Minus in our database. And, yes, he has a very low rating in a lot of our Pro Models.
In fact, in this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, I brought up Gabbert and the 49ers, endured the expected ridicule, and then made a ‘skill game proposition’ with two guys who have FantasyLabs Models named after them. If Gabbert finishes Week 3 as a top-20 fantasy QB, then I’ll win from Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) and Adam Levitan one six-pack each of Coors Lite.
Both Peter and Adam are very against Gabbert, so just know that at best I’m courting contrarianism and at worst I’m being an idiot.
But in his 10 games as the 49ers starter, Gabbert has played against a defense that finished last year with a top-10 pass DVOA six times:
That’s pretty good, right? I know that he’s Blaine F*cking Gabbert — but that’s kind of the reason to start him in the first place: Almost no one else will be starting him.
He’s the starting quarterback on a fast-paced offense that is quietly in the top 10 in scoring — and he has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent.
“What’s your plan?”
The Anti-Gabbert
Peter, Adam, and our special guest on the pod — Max Steinberg, a 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event Finalist — all expressed their Week 3 interest in the Dolphins’ Tannehill. He’s $6,200 on DK, $7,400 on FD, and playing on a 10-point home favorite implied to score 25.75 points against a Browns team with a starting third-string QB and a defense that last year was 27th in pass DVOA.
He so far has top-five DK and FD Plus/Minus values this season. I get it.
Sarah Marshall’s Husband
Let’s ignore that Matt Ryan and his college offensive linemen used to play Rock Band in the apartment above mine into the early hours of the morning during finals week at Boston College.
Let’s also ignore that his wife is apparently named after a movie.
Instead, let’s focus on what’s (probably) pertinent:
- He’s currently the No. 1 DFS QB in fantasy points and Plus/Minus.
- The Superdome is the Coors Field of NFL DFS.
- That’s where the Falcons are playing on Monday night.
He has the fifth- and sixth-highest DK and FD QB salaries in Week 3. That seems low.
The Three-Step Drop
On DK and FD, the same three QBs (albeit in a different order) have the highest salaries at the position:
- Brees: Facing last season’s 22nd pass DVOA in New Orleans . . . but on Monday night
- Cam Newton (CAR): No. 2 in fantasy points and Plus/Minus on the season
- Aaron Rodgers (GB): Still waiting for liftoff
In the top-five in salary on both sites is also Luck. The Colts are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 27 points against a Chargers team that is hemorrhaging fantasy points to QBs.
Anytime Luck is at home and doesn’t have a top-three salary, you could do a lot worse than just locking him into your lineups.
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the other Week 3 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
