Week 2 Tight Ends
To borrow from Allen Iverson:
We talkin’ about tight ends. Not receivers. Not receivers. Not receivers. We talkin’ about tight ends.
Suffice it to say, I don’t go all out for tight ends as a writer — because they’re tight ends. Not receivers.
To Gronk or Not to Gronk
As I write this, we really have no f*cking clue.
Rob Gronkowski is currently in our Player Models, but we haven’t received any confirmation yet that he will play. Per our News page (a widget of which can be found at the bottom of the article), Gronk returned to practice on Wednesday. That’s a good sign, but it’s relatively meaningless. Gronk has practiced before, only to sit on game day.
Honestly, we should probably hope that Gronk does return in Week 2 . . . so that we can fade him. Right now, the FantasyLabs ownership projections have him at two to four percent owned, but if he were declared active he would have a very strong chance of being rostered in a higher percentage of lineups.
And why should we want to fade Gronk?
- He’s injured.
- He’s the most expensive tight end on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
- He’s playing without the only starting NFL quarterback he’s ever known.
- He’s appearing in a home game in which the Patriots are heavily favored and probably won’t need to rely on him, because . . .
- He’s partnered with a competent tight end who could see more action than we otherwise would expect.
Especially on FanDuel, where he’s the most expensive he’s ever been (per our Trends tool), Gronk is a strong candidate not to be in lineups. Of course, if he did start and score three touchdowns, that wouldn’t be a surprise either. Gronk does what he does.
There’s still enough value in this slate for you both to roster an active Gronk and to roster capable players at other positions. But there simply might be too many concerns with Gronk to risk rostering him in his first game back.
The Usual Suspects
If you’re not playing Gronk, there’s a decent chance that you’re thinking about playing one of these next three guys.
For Kids Who Can’t Reed Good
In Week 1, Jordan Reed led his team in both targets and receptions. That wasn’t a coincidence. This season the ‘Reedskins’ are going to rely on him just as much as I’m going to rely on that joke — and that’s a lot.
On a points-per-game basis, Reed outproduced Gronk last year. He’s not the touchdown manimal that Gronk is, but Reed has been rather Gronkian with Kirk Cousins at quarterback (per RotoViz):
A problem, though, is that Reed has a matchup that is less than optimal. Last year, the Cowboys allowed the fewest receptions and yards receiving to tight ends. And in his five career games against the Cowboys, Reed hasn’t done especially well.
Ironically, he’s done even worse against the Cowboys with Cousins:
It’s definitely hard to fade Reed, especially on FD, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating and is $200 cheaper than Greg Olsen.
Since 2014, Reed has averaged a +4.70 FD Plus/Minus across 26 games. Against the Cowboys he’s done considerably poorer:
It really might be too much to expect Reed to be his normal self in Week 2.
Chasing Touchdowns
In Week 1, Delanie Walker trailed Tajae Sharpe, Andre Johnson, and DeMarco Murray in targets. Fortunately for him and for us, this week he’s facing the Lions, who last year allowed the most touchdowns to the tight end position.
And in Week 1 the Lions allowed one touchdown to Dwayne Allen and two touchdowns to afterthought Jack Doyle.
At $4,500 on DK and $6,600 on FD, Walker is expected by the FantasyLabs ownership projections to be a rather chalky player.
Is He Even Necessary?
It’s great for Greg Olsen that the Panthers are 13.5-point home favorites over the 49ers — but it’s not really great for Olsen. The 49ers last year were 30th against the pass (per Football Outsiders), but they weren’t especially vulnerable to tight ends and by halftime of the 49ers-Panthers game the home team might be running the ball every two out of three plays.
That’s not a lot of comfort from a guy who costs a top-three salary at both sites. He does lead DK tight ends with nine Pro Trends.
The Dumpoff Pass
Travis Kelce: Leads FD tight ends currently with nine Pro Trends
Antonio Gates: Has done just about as well without wide receiver Keenan Allen as he has with him
Julius Thomas: In Week 1, caught 100 percent of his targets; last year, only 57.5 percent
Coby Fleener: Facing a Giants team that last year allowed the second-most fantasy points in the league to tight ends
Larry Donnell and Will Tye: Facing a Saints team that last year allowed the most fantasy points in the league to tight ends
Martellus Bennett: Another Gronk-less game?
Jacob Tamme: Eight targets in Week 1, facing a Raiders team that allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and second-most touchdowns to tight ends last year
Brent Celek: No Zach Ertz
Gary Barnidge: Reunited with quarterback Josh McCown
Vance McDonald: 100 percent of the team’s touchdowns receiving . . . so far . . .
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the Week 2 positional breakdowns for quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, accessible via our slate content dashboard.
