NFL DFS Slate Breakdown: Week 2 Running Backs

Week 2 Running Backs

Titans starter DeMarco Murray is pacing to crush Randy Moss’ record for most receiving touchdowns in a season. It’s totally going to happen.

Here are a few other 2016 running back feats that we might as well set in stone:

• Melvin Gordon III breaks former Charger LaDainian Tomlinson’s NFL record for most touchdowns rushing in a season.

• DeAngelo Williams rushes for 2,288 yards and shatters Eric Dickerson’s 32-year NFL record of most yards rushing in a season.

• Spencer Ware crushes not only Charley Taylor’s 50-year record for running backs for most yards receiving in a season but also Calvin Johnson’s all-time single-season receiving yardage record with 2,064 yards through the air.

• Ryan Mathews stays healthy for 16 games.

I’m joking. There’s no way Mathews stays healthy the entire season.

We’re one week into the NFL season, and what we saw last week in many cases is not representative of what we’ll see in Week 2 and beyond. MG3, DeAngelo, and Spencer may have great 2016 campaigns — but we can’t extrapolate from or read too much into one game, at least when looking at daily fantasy sports production.

But we probably can rely on Week 1 usage: Market share of snaps and opportunities, for instance. While usage is subject to change and variable from week to week it’s much more predictive than past production is.

For Instance . . .

What’s significant about Ware’s Week 1 receiving performance is not that he had a fantastic(ally unsustainable) 129 yards on seven receptions. It’s that he was targeted eight times and able to convert those targets into seven receptions for yardage that was better than horrible.

Ware won’t always be targeted eight times per game — he actually led the team with 17.78 percent target market share, which is always possible for a running back to do with noodler Alex Smith at quarterback — and Ware won’t always have a trailing game script that calls for a running back to be used more as a receiver.

But Ware’s Week 1 target volume and work as a receiver collectively suggest that he’s not the human statue who last year had only five yards receiving on six targets. Week 1 shows that, if the Chiefs choose to give him the targets and snaps, Ware probably has the potential to be a true three-down workhorse.

Of course, Ware’s not particularly guaranteed to get targets and snaps. His backfield mate Charcandrick West was the superior receiver last year, and he was also targeted six times in Week 1. Perhaps even more alarming is that, even though Ware received 10 more opportunities than West, the two had exactly the same number of snaps (34).

If their snaps stay relatively even, it’s possible that this week Ware and West could have workloads that are far more similar. After Ware’s performance, that possibility isn’t especially probable — but people shouldn’t ignore it.

(And all of this is assuming that Jamaal Charles doesn’t return to action in Week 2.)

What made Ware such an enticing DFS play last week was his cheap salary and his matchup at home against a Chargers defense that last year was 31st against the run and 25th at defending backs in the passing games (per Football Outsiders). Now he’s $1,700 and $1,400 more expensive on DK and FD and on the road against a Texans defense that last week allowed only 67 yards total to Bears running backs.  

Last week, he was 27 and 20.9 percent owned on DK and FD. He was incredibly chalky, but he was worth rostering. This week, his FantasyLabs ownership projections are lower — you can find those projections in our Player Models, by the way — but Ware is nonetheless still chalky. Is he worth rostering with all of that field exposure?

Per our Trends tool, running backs comparable in salary and Salary Change have historically done alright . . .

. . . but that ownership is high — higher than it would be for just an average runner in Ware’s price range:

Rostering Ware is the DFS equivalent of ‘momentum investing’ in the stock market. With his rising price comes enhanced returns. The only problem is that the rest of the market is on this investment too.

In scenarios like this, the only way the investment pays off (at least in guaranteed prize pools) is if it radically outperforms the market’s already-elevated expectations.

In general, one shouldn’t expect that to happen two weeks in a row.

Side note: Was it indulgent to devote this many words to Ware? Yes. Did this analysis model for you how to think about Week 1 production and usage and how to use our tools to your benefit? I sure hope so. Am I speaking like Cary Elwes in Seinfeld? Absolutely.

The 80-20 Rule

There are various 80-20 rules. The original 80-20 rule (the Pareto principle) says (I think) that in many scenarios 80 percent of the consequences come from 20 percent of the causes.

This general rule has been adapted and applied in various ways. For instance, in economics there’s the idea that 80 percent of the world’s wealth is controlled by 20 percent of the population.

I personally think that 80 percent of the 80-20 rules are 20 percent bullsh*t.

Anyway, in Week 1 we saw five running backs receive at least 80 percent of their teams’ rushing attempts:

• 86.67: DeAngelo (PIT), 32.1 DK points
• 85.00: Jeremy Langford (CHI), 13.3 DK points
• 84.21: David Johnson (ARI), 21.2 DK points
• 80.77: T.J. Yeldon (JAX), 13.9 DK points
• 80.00: Lamar Miller (HOU), 13.7 DK points

These guys didn’t quite collectively compile 20 DK points, but they got close with 18.84.

I don’t want to give away too much, so all I’m going to say is this: If you learned that these five running backs were among the top DK and FD players across a variety of the Pro Models specifically constructed by FantasyLabs co-founders Jonathan Bales and Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) and Team FantasyLabs members Adam Levitan and the Sports Geek, then in that case you probably shouldn’t be surprised.

Given their cheap salaries, Langford ($4,600 DK, $6,500 FD) and Yeldon ($4,700 DK, $6,500 FD) are intriguing, especially Yeldon if his teammate Chris Ivory once again misses the game and allows Yeldon be a workhorse against a Chargers unit whose run defense is leakier than the Exxon Valdez.

They’re Still the Dolphins

In Week 1, the Dolphins did a reasonable job of keeping the Seahawks running backs in check. Christine Michael and Thomas Rawls combined for only 98 yards on the ground and five receptions for 31 yards. That’s a lot better than the league-high running back production the Dolphins allowed last year.

In 2015, no team allowed more touchdowns to running backs than the Dolphins. No team allowed more touchdowns through the air to the position. No team allowed more DK and FD points to backs. And only two teams allowed more yards on the ground to running backs.

In Week 2, the Dolphins play the Patriots in New England. LeGarrette Blount and James White have salaries outside the top 40 on DK and top 30 on FD. The Patriots are 6.5-point favorites and implied by Vegas to score 24 points.

The Pass-Catching Specialists Are Special

In Week 1, there were a number of running backs who were targeted at least five times and who have hardly ever rushed the ball at least 10 times in a game. As you can see, we don’t need to expect carries for a good pass-catching specialist to return value, even with FanDuel’s half-point-per-reception scoring:

• Danny Woodhead (SD): Seven targets, +13.39 FD Plus/Minus
• Travaris Cadet (NO): Seven targets, +3.74 FD Plus/Minus
• White (NE): Seven targets, +1.87 FD Plus/Minus
• Tevin Coleman (ATL): Six targets, +8.47 FD Plus/Minus
• Theo Riddick (DET): Five targets, +19.81 FD Plus/Minus

Of course I’m cherry-picking just a smidgen, but don’t let that distract from the point. Not one of these guys has a top-20 salary in Week 2. All of them are capable of providing value as pass catchers, even on FD.

The Salaried Seven

The same seven running backs have the top salaries on DK and FD. In some order they are as follows:

1. David Johnson (ARI): Playing against a Buccaneers team that last year was top-10 against backs in both the run and the pass game (per FO)
2. Todd Gurley (LA): About to be welcomed to LA by the Seahawks and their top-three defense
3. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): Meh
4. Adrian Peterson (MIN): Facing a team that has given him a -2.68 DK Plus/Minus on 18.2 percent ownership over the last two years
5. C.J. Anderson (DEN): At home against a Colts defense that ‘literally’ escorted opposing running backs to the end zone in Week 1
6. DeAngelo: Near the top of our median, floor, and ceiling projections
7. Lamar: Set a career and slate high in carries last week

If you pay up for running back, make sure not to invest in something that not even Austin Powers would mistake for coffee.

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:

Positional Breakdowns

Be sure to read the Week 2 positional breakdowns for quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends, accessible via our slate content dashboard.