Week 2: Quarterbacks
On the Week 1 NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, three FantasyLabs Pros and I engaged in a ‘skill game proposition.’ Co-founder Peter Jennings put forth the proposition that Colts quarterback Andrew Luck would be a top-two fantasy quarterback in Week 1. Co-founder Jonathan Bales, NFL savant Adam Levitan, and I proposed that he wouldn’t be. At stake were three crisp, delicious six-packs of God-watered Coors Lite. Jennings immediately regretted his position.
Of course, Luck finished as the No. 1 quarterback on DK (36.5 points) and No. 1 player overall at FD (33.5 pts).
All of which suggests that we should be mindful of these three points:
- Don’t bet against CSURAM88.
- Don’t bet against Luck.
- Don’t bet that you know what you’re doing.
The NFL season is already 5.88 percent done — but we’ve still seen each team play only once. There’s a lot that we don’t know yet.
The One-Week Comeback
Robert Griffin III entered the 2016 season on a mission to prove that his fantastic rookie campaign wasn’t a fluke. Alas . . .
The 2011 Heisman winner suffered an injury to his left shoulder in Week 1 and has been placed on the Injured Reserve. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that RG3 will have a hard time returning this season.
In short, Josh McCown will start for the Browns in Week 2. On the one hand, this dude has journeyed enough to be Gandalf. On the other hand, the team was actually not horrible last year with him as the starter (per RotoViz):
In the games that McCown started and didn’t need to exit due to injury, the Browns scored 8.73 points and passed for 91.64 yards more per game than they did otherwise. Yes, the other Browns quarterbacks who took snaps were Johnny Manziel and Austin Davis, but the 22.29 points that the team averaged with McCown are comparable to the 22.38 points the Lions averaged in 2015 with Matthew Stafford.
In his seven 2015 starts that weren’t terminated by injury, McCown was pretty freaking good:
In Week 2, no starter has a salary cheaper than McCown’s $5,000 on DK and $6,000 on FD. He’s an especially intriguing option on FD, where he has a 69 percent Bargain Rating, the position’s highest Projected Plus/Minus, and currently the top rating in the Levitan Player Model. Or, as Levitan put it in a Skype message, “#McCowninCash” — he’s so good the hashtag’s necessary.
This week the Browns face the Ravens, who in Week 1 allowed the slate’s fewest passing yards (and total yards) and second-fewest points. Of course, the Ravens played the Bills, who have an offense seemingly designed not to move the ball. Last year, Football Outsiders ranked the Ravens 25th in pass defense. It’s possible that in Week 2 McCown will face a Ravens pass defense that isn’t nearly as good as it looked in Week 1.
Last week Dak Prescott was the chalk du jour. This week it’s probably McCown.
The Three Caskets?
In The Merchant of Venice — a 2004 film written by some guy a long time ago — the heroine has three suitors, each of whom must pass ‘The Test of the Three Caskets’ in order to win her hand (and fortune) in marriage. Yes, that strand of the plot sounds incredibly f*cked up, but whatever. At least there’s not anything else problematic about it, like possible antisemitism or anything . . .
In the test of the three caskets, the suitors are presented with three caskets: One gold, the second silver, the last lead. If a suitor selects the right casket (the one that inside contains a picture of the heroine), then he gets to marry her. Basically, it’s an early-modern nuptial version of the shell game.
In Week 2 there are three main pivots away McCown. (There are more potential pivots than just these, but these are three I’m focusing on here):
• Blaine Gabbert (49ers)
• Trevor Siemian (Broncos)
• Carson Wentz (Eagles)
Which casket are you going to pick?
The Gold Casket
Gabbert is the same price as McCown on DK and only $200 more expensive on FD. Amazingly, Gabbert met his salary-based expectations last week on both sites (per our Trends tool). He’s playing on the road against the Panthers, who last year had the second-best pass defense in the NFL (per Football Outsiders), but the Panthers actually haven’t entirely overwhelmed opposing quarterbacks at home over the past two seasons:
I’m not saying that you should actually play Gabbert. But at his price he’s worth considering in guaranteed prize pools, especially given his FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent.
The Silver Casket
Siemian is $5,200 on DK and $6,400 on FD. I have to admit that, for a second-year, seventh-round selection who threw seven touchdowns to 11 interceptions as a senior, Siemian didn’t look like a total donkey while attempting his first career pass. He didn’t hit value last week and his price hasn’t gotten any cheaper — he’s actually $400 more expensive on FD — but this week he gets to face a Colts defense that (per our Matchups tool) is without its top cornerback and right now is ranked worst in the league against the pass.
Last week against the Colts, Matthew Stafford did exceed his salary-based expectations by 10.05 and 10.17 points on DK and FD.
The Lead Casket
#QBWentz in Week 1 looked like a guy who actually deserved to be a top-two pick in April’s draft. He was the third-highest rated passer of the slate (per Pro Football Focus) as he threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, he was at home against a Browns defense that last year allowed fantasy points to quarterbacks at a top-five rate.
Then again, in Week 2 he gets to face a Bears defense that in 2015 allowed almost as many fantasy points to quarterbacks as the Browns defense did. On DK and FD, the Bears have a top-three Opponent Plus/Minus. He might be more of a DK-only play, as he has experienced a Salary Change of +$1,900 on FD in the last week.
Divisional Matchups
Whereas Week 1 saw only three games in division, Week 2 features seven divisional matchups.
Thursday Slate
• Jets at Bills
Sunday Main Slate
• Bengals at Steelers
• Ravens at Browns
• Cowboys at Redskins
• Dolphins at Patriots
Sunday Afternoon Slate
• Seahawks at Rams
Prime Time Slate
• Packers at Vikings
Literally every slate has a divisional game in it. Does this fact matter?
There are some quarterbacks who buck the trend, but as a cohort all starting quarterbacks over the last two years have combined to do significantly worse against divisional rivals on both DK . . .
. . . and FD:
I’m not saying that you should automatically fade Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers just because they are playing against teams familiar with them.
But you should definitely assess the additional risk that each of these 14 quarterbacks might carry.
The Five-Step Drop
On DK and FD, the four quarterbacks with the highest salaries are the same:
- Drew Brees (NO): Below-average Plus/Minus on the road for a starting quarterback
- Cam Newton (CAR): Facing a 49ers defense that last year was 30th in the NFL against the pass
- A-Rod: Negative Plus/Minus in each of his last four games against the Vikings
- Andrew Luck (IND): Tough matchup on the road against a Denver defense team that last year was No. 1 versus the pass
Eli Manning has the fifth-highest salary on DK (10th on FD). He’s at home facing a Saints defense that last year allowed a league-record 45 touchdowns and league-high 26.5 DK and 24.5 FD points to quarterbacks.
The Saints bleed Opponent Plus/Minus to passers more than hemophiliacs bleed blood, and the Giants currently have the slate’s second-highest implied Vegas total at 28.5 points.
The FantasyLabs ownership projections have Manning as a chalky Week 2 play, especially on FD, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Contrarianism is good . . . but not usually when it comes to rostering in cash games the quarterback facing the Saints.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the Week 2 positional breakdowns for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, accessible via our slate content dashboard.
