Week 1: Wide Receivers
A month ago, Eli Rogers wasn’t an NFL wide receiver — not really. Instead, he was a guy who sounded like a character who gets killed in the third-to-last chapter of a novel by William Faulkner or Cormac McCarthy.
But this ain’t no Yoknapatawpha County or country for old men. This is f*cking Week 1 of the NFL season. Anything can happen . . . like a small, slow, undrafted, collegiately-unproductive guy named ‘Eli Rogers’ apparently becoming the starting slot receiver for a top-five offense.
Actually, maybe this is a novel by a disturbed Southern writer: All of this.
It Could Finally Happen
Blessed with a smooth-sounding name that most soul singers would kill for, Marvin Jones is hoping to make some sweet music in his first year in Detroit. In Week 1, he’s priced at $4,600 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel. He’s expected to be wonderfully chalky on both sites, to the tune of 21 to 25 and 13 to 16 percent ownership. The Bales Player Model has him rated as a top-15 receiver on both sites.
For reasons that passeth all understanding, Jones is being considered the Lions’ No. 1 wide receiver. On the one hand, he is a guy who — when targeted as if he were a No. 1 receiver — has been very productive (per RotoViz’s Game Splits App):
On the other hand, we can see that his production has been incredibly dependent on touchdowns and that during his last two active seasons (2013 and 2015) he has averaged only 5.7 targets for 47.75 yards and 0.44 touchdowns per game.
Let me put that production in context for you: Over the last eight games of 2015, an out-of-nowhere receiver emerged to play a significant role in his team’s offense, averaging 5.5 targets for 44.75 yards and 0.5 touchdowns receiving per game. That ‘receiver’ was Patriots running back James White. For the last two years, Jones has basically been White split out wide — except he doesn’t score any touchdowns rushing or catch as many passes.
This could finally be the year that he takes a step forward, and Jones has a good matchup in Week 1, but (frankly) he’s the wide receiver equivalent of Matt Cassel: He hasn’t been the best player at his position on any team since high school, when he was crankin’ that Soulja Boy.
In summation:
Well, everyone knows Custer died at Little Big Horn. What this book presupposes is . . . maybe he didn’t.
Are you willing to put Jones in your cash-game lineup on the assumption that he’ll be something we’ve never seen him be?
Are you willing to chalkify your tournament lineups with him in the hopes that a wide receiver with one 100-yard game in 43 career contests does something that he hasn’t done in almost three years?
If so, you’re in good company. On the Week 1 NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, FantasyLabs Pros Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Jonathan Bales, and Adam Levitan all said that Marvin is one of the first players they’re putting in their lineups. They’re all a lot better at DFS (and life?) than I am.
Potential Pivots?
There are a number of receivers you could pivot to if you wanted to get away from Marvin . . . and, by the way, every time I type, “Marvin,” I hear John Travolta’s voice in my head . . . but that’s my problem, not yours . . .
Here are some receivers you might think about using instead of Jones:
• Golden Tate (Lions)
• Anquan Boldin (Lions)
• Willie Snead (Saints)
• Tavon Austin (Rams)
• Corey Coleman (Browns)
• Torrey Smith (49ers)
• Mohamed Sanu (Falcons)
• Phillip Dorsett (Colts)
• Davante Adams (Packers)
• Terrance Williams (Cowboys)
• Sterling Shepard (Giants)
• Will Fuller (Texans)
Let’s slay.
Jules and Vincent
Tate was limited in practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury. He’s expected to play in Week 1, but if he somehow unexpectedly doesn’t then ignore everything I just said: Marvin will reenact his Week 8 onslaught from 2013.
But let’s assume that Tate plays. Both he and Q in their careers have been No. 1 wide receivers — the most-targeted receivers on their teams — for multiple teams. In 2014, Tate was 13th in wide receiver targets with Matthew Stafford as his quarterback, and you might laugh at Ol’ Man River but last year he actually outscored Jones on a per-game basis on both DK and FD.
Tate ($7,300 DK, $6,900 FD) and Boldin ($4,500 DK, $5,800 FD) both have advantageous matchups. It’s true that because of his significantly-higher price Tate isn’t a true ‘pivot,’ but on FD he actually is rated higher than Jones in both the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
2011 Antonio Brown
Last year, Snead basically was second-year Antonio Brown. Now, he gets to open the season at home, where the Saints are implied to score 26 points against an Oakland defense that last year allowed the league’s third-most receptions (225) to wide receivers. The big knock against Snead is that despite his 101 targets he scored only three touchdowns last year.
That’s true, but Brees was actually his best last year when throwing to Snead (per the RotoViz AY/A App):
Even without scoring a lot of touchdowns, Snead was easily Brees’ best receiver. With his price ($4,800 DK, $6,400 FD), Snead doesn’t even need to score a touchdown in Week 1 to have a positive Plus/Minus.
The Best Running Wide Receiver Since Percy Harvin
Tavon is the manifestation of peripheral upside. He’s a horrible No. 1 receiver, but . . .
- At least he’s the No. 1 receiver.
- He scored 10 touchdowns last year.
Amazingly, he had four multi-touchdown games in 2015, proving himself to be a superstar in guaranteed prize pools. Even so, Tavon had only 2.7 and 2.2 percent ownership on DK and FD throughout the season (per our Trends tool).
The Rams are 2.5-point road favorites against the 49ers, who last year had the league’s third-worst pass defense per Football Outsider’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. In fact, last year Tavon exploited the 49ers in his two games against them:
You can’t think about using him in cash games, but Tavon ($5,000 DK, $6,400 FD) was made for GPPs.
A Tavon Who Can Actually Run Routes?
The 2015 Biletnikoff Award winner, Coleman dominated college football for the past two seasons and joined the Browns this year as their first-round selection. Like Browns quarterback Robert Griffin III, Coleman learned under Art Briles at Baylor. If I’m walking along Narrative Street I might say that the two of them could do well together because of their shared knowledge of a previous offensive system, but I don’t need to take that walk anyway.
Before his final season was derailed with an injury that he played through for the last four games, the explosive Coleman caught 58 receptions for 1,178 yards and 20 touchdowns in only eight games. He’s one of the cheapest No. 1 receivers in the slate, and Coleman ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD) opens the season on the road against the Eagles, who last year allowed the seventh-most touchdowns per attempt in the league.
The Eagles defense will likely be better this year, but it still might not be that good. Coleman makes an intriguing stack with RG3.
He’s Chip Kelly’s No. 1 Wide Receiver (Maybe?)
Smith is a dynamic receiver who is cheap: $4,900 on DK and $5,600 on FD. He’s not in a great spot in that the 49ers are 2.5-point underdogs implied to score only 20.75 points against the Rams, who last year ranked No. 2 in pass defense against No. 1 receivers (per FO’s DVOA). Likely to have limited ownership, Smith will presumably serve as the No. 1 receiver in a system that over the last three years has distributed to that role an average of 131.7 targets for 84 receptions, 1,215.7 yards, and nine touchdowns.
His percentage odds of reaching his Upside (2x expected points) are probably higher than his ownership percentage will be.
Another One Who Got Away
Sanu is in a good spot. The Falcons are three-point home favorites implied to score 25.25 points against the Buccaneers, who last year were 26th against the pass (per FO’s DVOA). For years, Julio Jones and Roddy White were able to coexist together. With Julio likely to attract defensive attention and no competition for the No. 2 receiving job, Sanu could easily meet value given his $5,100 DK and $5,800 FD salaries.
The Forgotten Guy
Other than quarterback Andrew Luck, Dorsett is the only player at a skill position for the Colts to have been selected with a first-round pick. People are forgetting about him, but they shouldn’t. Entering his second season, the speedster is set to play a lot of snaps as the team’s third receiver and likely to build upon what he did as a rookie, as second-year receivers tend to do when they are selected with similarly-high picks (courtesy of The RotoViz Screener):
At $4,500 on DK and $5,400 on FD, Dorsett is cheap enough to be worth a tourney dart, especially since the Colts are implied to score a slate-high 27.5 points.
Once Again
The thesis for Adams ($5,000 DK, $5,300 FD) is similar to the one for Dorsett. He’s the No. 3 receiver for one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In Week 1, the Packers are 4.5-point favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Jaguars, who last year were 31st in pass defense per FO’s DVOA. He’ll have low ownership and could be a cheap, differentiating component in a Packers stack. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers might not be the only player on offense who benefits from the return of wide receiver Jordy Nelson.
Better Than You Think
Few people appreciate this, but Williams has been comparable to the best third-round receivers through the first three years in the NFL. For instance, Keenan Allen and Williams were taken in the same draft within two picks of each other. Allen has 16 touchdowns on 315 targets. Williams, 16 on 233. Allen averages 8.11 yards per target. Williams, 9.43.
Frankly, Williams has career production that should make Jones a little jealous.
Going against a Giants defense that last year allowed the most receiving yards in the league, Williams would make for an intriguing stack with quarterback Dak Prescott. Lots of people don’t like him because of his volatility. That’s what could make him such a great GPP play, especially at his price: $3,300 on DK and $5,300 on FD.
Two Rookies
Shepard and Fuller are very much versions of each other. Both are athletic rookie wide receivers playing opposite of established studs, and both should benefit from matchups with poor secondaries. Both are on offenses that last year ran at a top-three pace. They’re both potential options in GPPs.
Two Minimum-Salaried Guys
On FD, no minimum-salaried receivers really interest me, but on DK there are two: Tajae Sharpe and Terrelle Pryor. Let’s take them one at a time.
Not So Sharpe
I’ve railed against Sharpe’s rookie-year prospects, but in Week 1 he looks like a solid, high-floor punt play. He has one of the slate’s highest Projected Plus/Minus values at +4.2 — just ahead of Marvin’s +3.8. A reception machine as a senior, Sharpe has a decent chance of getting at least five receptions in Week 1, especially since Kendall Wright won’t play Sunday.
Pryor Acts
Terrelle has never really played receiver in the NFL during the regular season. At least not as a guy getting routine snaps. In the preseason, though, he looked like a big guy who could get down the field fast and not drop the ball if it hit his hands. That’s basically what I’m looking for in a guy who costs $3,000. This might sound ridiculous, but stacking Pryor and Coleman with RG3 could enable you to be very creative with your lineups.
The Big Three
Julio, Odell Beckham, Jr., and Antonio Brown have the three-highest salaries on each platform. They’re all likely to be very high-owned. They’re guys you should feel fairly comfortable rostering in cash games and GPPs alike.
But if you should feel the need to pivot off of any of them, DeAndre Hopkins is an excellent alternative. At $8,800 on DK and $8,40o on FD, he’s at least $500 cheaper than any of the Big Three and isn’t likely to have ownership higher than any of theirs.
Facing a Bears defense that last year ranked 31st in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, Hopkins has the potential to finish the week as the top overall receiver.
