Week 1: Quarterbacks
In analyzing these salaries, we need to remember that Week 1 pricing dropped early in August, before preseason games had even started. I see these quarterback prices now, and I don’t know whether I should be terrified or titillated. Both? Neither? In Week 1, we have opportunities that we may never see again. It’s sort of like prom.
When the salaries were released, I did an initial position-by-position review for both FanDuel and DraftKings. As a point of reference: I thought that Tony Romo was a great play.
- A lot of time has passed.
- I’m the type of guy who a month ago thought that Romo was a great play.
You’re stuck with me for the next 20 weeks. Get comfortable. Get used to it.
King Chalk
In our Player Models, we have six different Pro Models. As of writing, it doesn’t matter which model you are using or whether you’re looking at DK or FD: Cowboys starter Dak Prescott has a top-three rating in the Model. He also has the position’s highest-projected ownership: 17 to 20 percent on DK and 21 to 25 percent on FD. On both sites, he carries the minimum ($5,000) salary. I don’t know French, but I think the phrase I’m looking for is something like ‘chàlk de la chàlk.’
Presgod has the position’s highest-projected DK and FD Plus/Minus values, and even though Dallas has seen its implied Vegas total drop by 3.25 points since the line opened Dak still has the opportunity at home to exploit a Giants defense that last year allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on a salary-adjusted basis. Per Football Outsiders’ weighted Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric, the Giants last year had the second-worst defense and fifth-worst pass defense in the league. They were one of the three worst teams in total fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
He’s only a rookie, but Preschalk was (beyond) impressive in the preseason and was a standout player in the Southeastern Conference. He improved as a passer each year, completing 66.2 percent of his 477 attempts for 3,793 yards and 29 touchdowns against only five interceptions as a senior. In his three years as a starter, he averaged 64.9 yards and one touchdown rushing per game. He has major Konami Code upside.
You don’t need to like Dak as a player or think that he’s good at football. You basically just need to believe that he has a good chance of scoring at least 13.91 DK points and 9.45 FD points against the Giants. If you’re trying to think of Dak as not a top-three option in Week 1, you’re going to be hard-prescotted.
Potential Pivots?
In some order, Dak and the following nine quarterbacks constitute the bottom-10 starting quarterbacks in salary on both DK and FD.
• Jay Cutler (Bears)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (Patriots)
• Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins)
• Robert Griffin III (Browns)
• Case Keenum (Rams)
• Trevor Siemian (Broncos)
• Blaine Gabbert (49ers)
• Carson Wentz (Eagles)
• Shaun Hill (Vikings)
If you’re pivoting off of Dak, you’re probably pivoting to one of these players.
Let’s get through these guys as quickly as we can.
Shill
Hill is likely a one-week bridge from the injured Teddy Bridgewater to the ineffectual Sam Bradford. His last real action came in 2014, when he started eight games for the Rams. He threw eight touchdowns in those games. He should be right at home in a slow-paced, run-first offense that wants him to do nothing. The good news: He right now has the second-highest FD rating in the Bales Model because he’s so cheap. The bad news: He has a bottom-three floor projection.
#QBWentz
The No. 2 pick in April’s draft, Wentz was selected by the Eagles with the intention of ‘serving’ as the third-string quarterback for his rookie campaign. After Bradford was traded and Chase Daniel was exposed in the preseason, Wentz is doing what most top draft picks do: Play in Week 1. A small-school #QBWinz underperformer, Wentz has the fourth-lowest floor projection this week. At least he’s at home going against a team that was in the bottom five last year in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
A Stack of Chips
Gabbert is a Chip Kelly starting quarterback priced at $5,200 on DK and 6,200 on FD. Per our Trends tool, those guys when priced comparably have done well over the last two years on DK:
On FD, a Chip quarterback hasn’t been that cheap in at least two years. When his guys have been no more than $7,000 . . .
Gabbert almost certainly sucks at football. That might not matter.
Donkey, Not a Monkey
Siemian is a second-year, seventh-round selection who threw seven touchdowns to 11 interceptions as a senior. His next NFL pass attempt will be his first. Fortunately, he opens the entire NFL season on prime time, so it’s not as if anyone will be watching when he sh*ts his pants against an angry defense looking to avenge its Super Bowl loss . . .
Ramifications
When the Rams finally ‘break through’ and finish a season 8-8 on the plastic arm of ‘Kalifornia’ Keenum, head coach Jeff Fisher will have had the last laugh. Anytime you can trade a lot of picks for a No. 1 overall quarterback whom you can then bench in favor of an undrafted veteran who the year prior threw only four touchdowns in five starts, you pretty much must do so. Still, Case went 3-2 last year and looks #good handing off the ball.
The Pivot?
RG3’s not cheap on FD, but on DK he definitely is and has the slate’s highest Bargain Rating for the site. RG3 has true Black Swan potential. The Cleveland-Philly game has the slate’s lowest Vegas total, but you can roster quarterbacks from games with low Vegas totals. In 2014, his last season of action, RG3 averaged just over four rush attempts per game. Unsurprisingly, quarterbacks with similar salaries and per-game rush attempts collectively average a +3.01 Plus/Minus with 67.2 percent Consistency.
This is a guy who has averaged 20.64 DraftKings points per game across his four-year career, and he’s playing against the Eagles, who last year allowed the third-most DK points to opposing quarterbacks. The Eagles have made some improvements on the defensive side of the ball, but RG3 still has the second-highest rating in Adam Levitan’s model. The upside is there.
It’s Stupid
The Dolphins are opening the season in Seattle implied to score a slate-low 16.75 points. The Seahawks allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last year. It’s not contrarianism to roster Tannehill.
But He Has a Good Tight End!
Garoppolo is ‘poised’ to get his first NFL start this week on the road against a Cardinals defense that last year was top-five against the pass per DVOA and allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on a salary-adjusted basis. Since the Week 1 lines have opened, the Patriots have lost 4.75 points from their implied total — more than any other team has. What he has going for him is that the Pats will probably need to throw and will still play at a fast pace (as they did in 2008 when Tom Brady was out). Plus, he has a good tight end, I’ve heard.
Two Trends
Per the Trends tool, Cutler has been an absolute stud in his nine road games against non-division opponents over the last two years:
• DK: 21.66 pts, +5.76 Plus/Minus, 77.8 Consistency, 1.7 percent Ownership
• FD: 20.44 pts, +4.71 Plus/Minus, 88.9 Consistency, 3.7 percent Ownership
Of course, last year (his first season without wide receiver Brandon Marshall) Cutler was less than wonderful in his three games against top-10 defenses per DVOA:
• DK: 13.43 pts, -1.57 Plus/Minus, 33.3 Consistency, 0.8 percent Ownership
• FD: 12.76 pts, -2.63 Plus/Minus, 33.3 Consistency, 1.3 percent Ownership
On the road against the Texans, the Bears are implied to score 18.75 points, the third-lowest mark in the slate.
Good Matchups
The Mercedes-Benz Carr
In Week 1, Oakland quarterback Derek Carr will be on the road, facing a Saints defense that last year allowed a league-high 26.5 DK and 24.5 FD points to quarterbacks. Do you really need to know anything else about Carr, the Saints, or this game?
As a point of reference: In 2015, NFL MVP Cam Newton averaged 25.9 DK and 24.9 FD points. Basically, the Saints turn opposing quarterbacks into Newton.
Welcome to Texas
Big-money ‘franchise’ quarterback Brock Osweiler last year lost his psuedo-starting job to a decaying 39-year-old shot putter who already had one foot in the grave of retirement. But in Week 1 the Texans starter plays at home against a Bears defense that last year was third in Opponent Plus/Minus and seventh in points allowed to quarterbacks. Osweiler’s the fifth- and sixth-rated DK and FD quarterback in the CSURAM88 Model. He’s unlikely to lose his job to Peyton Manning in this game.
You Can’t Eat Without Money
With only 3,821 yards and 31 touchdowns passing last year, Aaron Rodgers was ‘hurrible.’ And yet he starts off the season as the slate’s most-expensive quarterback: $9,000 on FD and $8,500 on DK. Why?
- He’s (presumably?) getting back No. 1 wide receiver Jordy Nelson.
- He’s Aaron f*cking Rodgers.
- He’s playing the Jaguars.
Last year, the Jags were 31st in pass defense per FO’s DVOA metric. They allowed guys not named ‘Aaron Rodgers’ to throw for 4,528 yards.
The Non-Dad Runners
Seven Months Later
Cam Newton struggled against the Broncos defense in Super Bowl 50 — he failed to score a touchdown for the first time all season — but he still managed to pass for 265 yards and rush for 45. The Panthers are implied to score only 22.25 points against the Broncos in Denver — and one can easily envision this game becoming a field goal contest — but over the last two years when he has been priced comparably and the Panthers have been implied to score a comparable total Newton has met his DK and FD salary-based expectations 60.0 and 62.5 percent of the time.
Two Dudes
Marcus Mariota and Tyrod Taylor both seem to be in subpar spots. The Titans are implied for 19.5 points. The Bills, 20.75. The good news is that both have two to four percent ownership projections and both are highly-capable runners. It’s OK to roster quarterbacks in bad Vegas scenarios, especially if they can contribute as runners.
Spacious Vegas
Four of the best quarterbacks in the NFL — Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, and Drew Brees — are home favorites. All of their teams are implied to score at least 26 points. All of their teams have seen their implied totals grow since the lines opened. All of them are playing against defenses that last year allowed positive Plus/Minus values to opposing quarterbacks. Not one of them is projected to be owned above 12 percent. All of them currently have top-six ceiling projections in our Models. There’s plenty of space on these bandwagons. Get on whichever one you like best.
And, yes, I really just talked about Luck, Russell, Palmer, and Brees in one paragraph.
- Do you really need me to say more about them?
- On a weekly basis, this might just be the type of piece in which more space is devoted to guys you probably shouldn’t play than guys you should. #StrongInference
OK, one more item on these guys . . . it’s not a bad idea to roster their kickers on FD . . .
. . . Is that how we’re ending this piece?
I guess so.
