Last NFL season, our new SimLabs tool went live to the public. It’s a powerful new feature that allows casual players to build competitive lineups effortlessly — or serious players to leverage their convictions more effectively. This week, we’ve also added the feature of being able to export lineups from SimLabs directly to our models for easy tweaking of lineups.
I broke down some general uses of the tool from an evergreen perspective earlier in the year. Moving forward, we’ll be checking out some suggested starting points for building lineups.
The process is simple: from the SimLabs home screen, first select the field size and desired range of outcomes for your lineups. The field size depends on the contest type, while the “results range” allows you to customize how unique you want your lineups to be.
Then, find the box titled “include players” and type your preferred options — then sit back and let the sims do their thing. You can generate as many or as few lineups as you want, then upload directly to DraftKings to be entered into contests.
For more on what SimLabs is and how it works, check out our user guide.
Let’s check out some potential starting points in Week 5.
As a preface to this week’s edition of the column, this feels like an especially messy week for injuries. Even in situations where the absences are known, our projections will continually be updated as we get news on how teams plan to work around key situations.
That means two things on the user side:
One, all of the information here is subject to change. Consider these blocks more as inspiration than recommendations.
Two, waiting until Sunday morning before running the sims is likely going to be better than doing so earlier. Since they’re powered by our projections, you’ll get better lineups as those projections come into sharper focus.
Here are some spots I (might be) building around this week:
Bills vs. Texans Game Stacks
My favorite game to build around this week is Bills vs. Texans. It doesn’t have the highest game total, but at 47.5 points, it’s reasonably close.
Of all the games with totals north of 40, it does feature the closest spread. That means increased odds of a shootout developing, with two capable offenses who could end up going blow-for-blow.
The difficulty in this game is that both teams have fairly spread-out offenses, with the Texans having three wideouts who could be or have been WR1s and Buffalo having ten different players catch passes this year.
Which is why I’m happy to let SimLabs figure out how best to stack this one. The easiest way to encourage a game stack is probably by pairing a QB with an opposing pass catcher and letting the sims fill in the rest.
I’ll be doing that with both Josh Allen and CJ Stroud, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for planting their flag on one side of this contest either.
Check out how our SimLabs Lineup Generator works:
Terry McLaurin + Jayden Daniels
This block was one of my suggestions last week in what felt like a guaranteed shootout against the Cardinals. Arizona didn’t hold up their end of the bargain, leading to a 42-14 win for the Commanders, in which the bulk of the scoring came on the ground.
However, these two players put up over 42 points at a combined salary of $12,300, which would be a pace of over 170 points.
Nobody seems to be talking about them this week against the Browns due to the perceived difficulty of the matchup. These Browns aren’t yesterday’s Browns though, and they actually rank worse in DVOA against the pass (24th) than the Cardinals (21st.) That Cleveland is better against the run probably helps the passing game for Washington.
Sure, we’re relying on a struggling opposing offense to keep pace, but stranger things have happened. Let’s give them another shot at even lower ownership.
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Brock Purdy + Jordan Mason
Neither Purdy nor Mason are especially contrarian picks this week, but my guess is that they won’t be played together in many lineups.
Typically, people want to pair quarterbacks with their pass catchers — and for good reason. Mason also doesn’t catch many passes.
However, there’s still a positive correlation between running backs and quarterbacks. It’s not as strong as between receivers and quarterbacks, but it beats out QB/opposing pass catchers (for one example.)
This stack is banking on a fairly specific but not entirely unlikely outcome in this game. Namely, a big win for the 49ers where they put up points through the air early, with those points distributed among a few different targets. Then, the 49ers grind out the rest of the game on the ground with Mason.
The 49ers are the slate’s heaviest favorites, and this game has the highest total, so it’s not all that unlikely.
