Last NFL season, our new SimLabs tool went live to the public. It’s a powerful new feature that allows casual players to build competitive lineups effortlessly — or serious players to leverage their convictions more effectively. This week, we’ve also added the feature of being able to export lineups from SimLabs directly to our models for easy tweaking of lineups.
I broke down some general uses of the tool from an evergreen perspective earlier in the year. Moving forward, we’ll be checking out some suggested starting points for building lineups.
The process is simple: from the SimLabs home screen, first select the field size and desired range of outcomes for your lineups. The field size depends on the contest type, while the “results range” allows you to customize how unique you want your lineups to be.
Then, find the box titled “include players” and type your preferred options — then sit back and let the sims do their thing. You can generate as many or as few lineups as you want, then upload directly to DraftKings to be entered into contests.
For more on what SimLabs is and how it works, check out our user guide.
Let’s check out some potential starting points in Week 2.
Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown + Chris Godwin
Jared Goff is the top quarterback in the important “Optimal vs. Projected ownership” metric on the SimLabs home page. He’s the favored quarterback in the game with the highest total on the slate, but projecting in the bottom half of projected ownership.
That’s an obvious opportunity for DFS. The problem is figuring out how to stack him. Goff isn’t likely to pick up many points with his legs so you’ll need pass catchers — but the Lions offense has tons of weapons to choose from.
I like the buy-low opportunity on St. Brown, who was quiet in the Lions Week 1 win against the Rams. Tampa’s scheme is much more exploitable for middle-of-the-field routes like those favored by St. Brown. I laid out that case in more detail in my Week 2 Main Slate Breakdown.
We also need a bring-back from the Bucs, as Detroit could switch to a run-heavy approach if they get off to a commanding lead. That’s where Godwin comes in, with a similar edge against the Lions coverage.
Plus, this way, we get the Sun God (St. Brown) and the win(d) God in the same lineups. Can’t beat that.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb
This one feels a bit obvious but is somehow being overlooked by the field, with Prescott projected for low single-digit ownership.
Lamb had a massive 2023 season once the Cowboys switched to a pass-centric approach, with three games north of 40 DraftKings points and three more in the 30s in the 11 games following the Cowboys bye week.
In two of those 40-point games, Prescott also cleared 30 DraftKings points, meaning the stack went for north of 70. They’re in a good spot this week at home against the Saints, particularly if the Saint’s offense can approach their Week 1 performance, which would keep the Cowboys aggressive and throwing throughout.
New Orleans is spread out enough offensively that I don’t want to force a bring-back — though I’ll be happy with whatever SimLabs gives me in that regard.
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Exclude Breece Hall & Jordan Mason
This build won’t be a huge chunk of my rosters, but I’ll have some slight exposure to it. Hall and Mason are pretty clearly the best RB plays on the slate — but they’re both likely to be over-owned relative to their chance of being in the optimal lineup.
SimLabs is telling us that while they have strong chances of being in the optimal lineup, you won’t be separating from the field by playing them — especially together. With 24+ other viable fantasy backs on the 13-game slate, there’s a good chance one or more of them have an outlier game. Or, one or both of Hall and Mason don’t live up to expectations.
Mason’s ownership is projecting considerably higher than Halls. For a toned-down version of this starting point, simply excluding Mason makes sense too.
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