This NFL season, our new SimLabs tool went live to the public. It’s a powerful new feature that allows casual players to build competitive lineups effortlessly — or serious players to leverage their convictions more effectively. This week, we’ve also added the feature of being able to export lineups from SimLabs directly to our models for easy tweaking of lineups.
I broke down some general uses of the tool from an evergreen perspective last week. Moving forward, we’ll be checking out some suggested starting points for building lineups.
The process is simple: from the SimLabs home screen, first, select the field size and desired range of outcomes for your lineups. The field size depends on the contest type, while the “results range” allows you to customize how unique you want your lineups to be.
Then, find the box titled “include players” and type your preferred options — then sit back and let the sims do their thing. You can generate as many or as few lineups as you want, then upload directly to DraftKings to be entered into contests.
For more on what SimLabs is and how it works, check out our user guide.
Let’s check out some potential starting points in Week 12.
Derrick Henry + Adam Thielen
It’s hard to overstate how good of a spot this is for Derrick Henry on paper. The big dog is taking on the Panthers, who rank 32nd in DVOA against the run, 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs, and face over 30 opponent rushing attempts per game.
We’re also nearly into the winter months, where Henry has traditionally performed at his best:
Derrick Henry Splits by Month
Other Trends at play here include Henry’s performance at home (four of his five best games this season have been at home) and in wins (the same four games were also Titans wins). With Tennessee as a slight favorite in Nashville, we couldn’t draw it up much better for Henry.
But why pair him with Adam Thielen, as opposed to the more traditional RB+Defense stack? There are a few reasons. The correlation between opposing backs and receivers continues to show up in GPP-winning lineups. The Titans rank 27th in fantasy points against wide receivers which is another reason.
Mainly, though, the same game flow that would lead to a big Henry day also benefits Thielen. That is the Titans controlling this game on the ground, with Carolina throwing to catch up. With both players projecting at reasonably low ownership, they’re an excellent starting block for rosters.
Josh Allen
I went more in depth on the subject in my Main Slate Breakdown, but I actually prefer Josh Allen to Jalen Hurts as the top QB option in the best game on the slate for fantasy production. While the narrative is that it’s been a down year for Allen and the Bills, he’s still fantasy’s overall QB1 on the season. He also has a much easier matchup than Hurts, thanks to the Eagles pass-funnel defense.
The bigger reason why I’m using SimLabs to build around Allen, though, is due to the difficulty of stacking around him or this game. Both of the game’s top receivers, AJ Brown and Stefon Diggs, are the most expensive players on the slate, with Allen and Hurts both in the top three at quarterback.
That makes stacks built around both receivers and one of the quarterbacks nearly impossible. There’s also an argument for playing Allen naked, due to the rushing production he typically provides as well as the wide distribution of targets beyond Diggs.
Either way, simulations can figure all of that out, mixing in stacking partners and bringbacks when appropriate. I know I want to be overweight on Allen, I’m just not sure how to go about it — and the sims will solve that issue. It’s also not hard to be overweight on Allen, whose ownership is projecting far below that of Hurts’.
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Rashid Shaheed + Saints Defense
Rashid Shaheed is another player I’m big on this week. The combination of his breakaway speed and likely expanding role with Michael Thomas’s injury is hard to find, where other players in his price range offer low-upside volume or just a few deep balls.
Typically, we don’t pair wideouts with their team’s defense, of course. That’s because a strong game from the defense produces game scripts where their team passes less, making it hard for them to hit together here.
However, there’s a crucial exception to that rule. Shaheed is both the kick and punt returner for the Saints. That means if he’s able to break a return touchdown, you’d score that touchdown both for Shaheed and the Saints DST. The Saints are also a good play in their own right against a shaky Falcons offense.
Obviously, that’s a fairly long-shot bet, but those are the types of things we need to hit in massive contests. I’ll be saving this one for lineups I plan on entering in massive contests like the play action or Milly Maker — while potentially pairing it with either of the other options mentioned above.
