This NFL season, our new SimLabs tool went live to the public. It’s a powerful new feature that allows casual players to build competitive lineups effortlessly — or serious players to leverage their convictions more effectively. This week, we’ve also added the feature of being able to export lineups from SimLabs directly to our models for easy tweaking of lineups.
I broke down some general uses of the tool from an evergreen perspective earlier in the year. Moving forward, we’ll be checking out some suggested starting points for building lineups.
The process is simple: from the SimLabs home screen, first select the field size and desired range of outcomes for your lineups. The field size depends on the contest type, while the “results range” allows you to customize how unique you want your lineups to be.
Then, find the box titled “include players” and type your preferred options — then sit back and let the sims do their thing. You can generate as many or as few lineups as you want, then upload directly to DraftKings to be entered into contests.
For more on what SimLabs is and how it works, check out our user guide.
Let’s check out some potential starting points in Week 14.
Brock Purdy + George Kittle
Purdy has been in two of the last three Milly Maker winning lineups. One of those was Purdy “naked” (without any of his pass catchers), while one saw him paired with Deebo Samuel.
Neither the matchup with Seattle (26th in DVOA against the pass) nor the 49ers team total (highest on the slate) gives any reason to think it won’t be Purdy taking someone to first place this week. Especially with game totals down across the league, the 49ers’ 29 implied points are especially valuable.
Of course, figuring out who to pair Purdy with — if stacking him at all — is always a challenge. I’m leaning toward Kittle this week, though, as Seattle has been more vulnerable to tight ends than wide receivers. They have an Opponent Plus/Minus allowed of -3 against wideouts, and -0.1 against tight ends.
Beyond that, Kittle is also cheaper than both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and projected for lower ownership. Plus, getting points from tight end is inherently more valuable than other spots, given the scarcity of big scores available there.
Obviously, I don’t want to allocate all of my Purdy exposure to Kittle stacks, as there’s a variety of stacking options that make sense.
However, I’ll run a few lineups through SimLabs with this pairing, and a few with just Purdy (which will naturally produce some Kittle lineups as well) to make sure I’m overweight on this stack.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
Justin Jefferson + Zack Moss
You might be wondering what Justin Jefferson and Zack Moss have to do with each other. They play different positions and aren’t facing each other, so there’s no real correlation between them.
While that’s true, these two also fit my favorite “rules” for GPP roster construction. Rule No. 1 is to play last week’s most prominent disappointment. Once people get burned by a player, they’re irrationally less likely to play them the following week. That fits Moss to a tee this week, as he failed as massive chalk in Week 13.
However, Moss had a very difficult matchup against a pass-funnel Titans team. This isn’t just hindsight talking, as “No Zack Moss” was one of my SimLabs building blocks last week. This time, he’s significantly more expensive (which should lower ownership) but in a far easier matchup.
My other “rule” is to roster players their first game back from an injury. This rule used to be even more powerful when DraftKings lowered salaries for every week a player missed, but it still holds value. We saw it with Kyren Williams in Week 12 and De’Von Achane last week. Now, it’s Jefferson’s turn.
There are reasons to be wary of Jefferson, but if we wait to have those fears confirmed or denied, it will be too late. If he’s truly back, his ownership and salary will be considerably higher for the remainder of the season.
If you followed this rule last week, you would’ve ended up with lineups built around Achane and Derrick Henry. They combined for 53.3 DraftKings points at a salary of $13,700.
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Joe Flacco + Elijah Moore
Old friends Joe Flacco and Elijah Moore reunited for the Browns, with Flacco targeting Moore 12 times in Week 13. Moore picked up more air yards than any player in football with 257, so they weren’t just check-down throws either.
While the box score wasn’t great for either player, opportunity is everything in DFS. There should be plenty moore (pun intended) to go around this week, particularly if Amari Cooper is unable to return from concussion protocol. Both players are also extremely cheap, which should push SimLabs to include lots of high-priced stars in this pairing.
It’s also a quietly strong matchup, as the Jaguars have the worst Opponent Plus/Minus to quarterbacks of any team on the Week 14 main slate. Given Flacco’s fixation on Moore, it’s fairly likely a good game for Flacco, which means Moore gets there as well.
If Cooper is ruled in, I’d hesitate before rostering this combination, though. Be sure to keep an eye on our news feed Sunday morning, as we’ll get a final designation on Cooper before the games kick off.
Also of note, the Browns haven’t named their starting quarterback for Sunday, so be on the lookout for that.
