Last NFL season, our new SimLabs tool went live to the public. It’s a powerful new feature that allows casual players to build competitive lineups effortlessly — or serious players to leverage their convictions more effectively. This week, we’ve also added the feature of being able to export lineups from SimLabs directly to our models for easy tweaking of lineups.
I broke down some general uses of the tool from an evergreen perspective earlier in the year. Moving forward, we’ll be checking out some suggested starting points for building lineups.
The process is simple: from the SimLabs home screen, first select the field size and desired range of outcomes for your lineups. The field size depends on the contest type, while the “results range” allows you to customize how unique you want your lineups to be.
Then, find the box titled “include players” and type your preferred options — then sit back and let the sims do their thing. You can generate as many or as few lineups as you want, then upload directly to DraftKings to be entered into contests.
For more on what SimLabs is and how it works, check out our user guide.
Let’s check out some potential starting points in Week 1.
Jonathan Taylor
This pick is fairly straightforward. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson will be one of, if not the, most popular players on the slate. It’s a strong game environment with a 48.5-point total that’s half a point off the lead for the slate, so there should be plenty of fantasy production to be had.
Much of the thesis for Richardson is based on his rushing upside after he scored four rushing touchdowns in effectively three full games last year. That obviously leads to some negative correlation between Taylor and Richardson.
The key here, though, is that Taylor was inactive when Richardson was dominating the rushing scoring. Will the Colts still let their quarterback take those hits with a healthy JT? Probably not, making Taylor an excellent GPP play.
He leads the position in “Optimal vs. Projected Ownership” on SimLabs. Subscribers can see the top (and bottom) plays in that metric for every position on the SimLabs home screen.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
Tua Tagovailoa + Christian Kirk
We obviously want exposure to Jaguars-Dolphins this week. Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane are both set to be fairly popular, while Tagovailoa is not.
That means much of the field is looking for one-offs and ignoring a full stack. The goal here is to force SimLabs into stacking around this game by pairing Tagovailoa with a bring-back from the Jaguars.
Kirk feels like the obvious answer to that, as I’m expecting an adjustment period for rookie wideout Brian Thomas and Evan Engram is a low-upside floor play. The beauty of SimLabs is allowing it to figure out the best stacks to build around that pairing, based on projected ownership, range of outcomes, and correlation.
You’ll still get plenty of Hill and Achane, but maybe the best builds actually have Jaylen Waddle? I’ll let the sims take it from there.
Be sure to check out all the pick ’em Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Caleb Williams + Tony Pollard
The Titans-Bears game is a sneaky upside spot in Week 1, thanks to the (allegedly) generational quarterback prospect of Williams landing in an excellent spot. He has plenty of weapons to target, with perhaps the best WR room in the league and a strong pass-catching back in De’Andre Swift.
That makes manually building around Williams a challenge though, as picking the right stacking partners is a guessing game. Williams isn’t expected to contribute all that much with his legs, so a slate-winning score probably brings (at least) one of his targets with him.
However, the Bears probably won’t fully unleash Williams unless the Titans push the pace, which is where Pollard comes in. I don’t have much faith in the Titans passing attack, but if Pollard gets back to his 2022 form with a full workload, he could be a screaming value early in the season.
