- The Buffalo Bills square off against the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football.
- Who should be in the Captain slot for your DFS team?
- Matt LaMarca breaks down the relevant DFS options using the FantasyLabs Tools, Projections, and Player Models.
After what feels like an eternity, the NFL regular season gets underway Thursday with a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills. The Rams will host the game as the defending Super Bowl champions, while many have the Bills pegged to hoist the Lombardi Trophy this season. The Bills are currently listed as 2.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 52.0.
With the return of fantasy comes the return of fantasy football. Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering up massive single-game tournaments where you can take home upwards of $1M.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The first game of the season is very top-heavy from a fantasy perspective. Some of the top players in fantasy will take the field, so most people will gravitate towards a stars-and-scrubs build.
It starts with Josh Allen, who is basically the unquestioned top quarterback in fantasy. He’s the most expensive option on FanDuel while checking in second on DraftKings.
Allen is so deadly because of his dual-threat ability. He’s racked up at least 4,400 passing yards and 36 touchdowns in back-to-back years, and he’s added 14 rushing touchdowns over that time frame. Allen’s size makes him the ideal goal-line ball carrier, making him more like Cam Newton than Lamar Jackson from a rushing perspective.
Allen did lose two weapons in the offseason in Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley, but that should be viewed as a positive. Neither player provided much in their final year in Buffalo, and their absence opens the door for more talented pass-catchers to see the field.
The Rams are a tough matchup – they ranked fifth in Football Outsiders‘ defensive DVOA last season – but Allen is as matchup-proof as they come. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection per THE BLITZ, making him a logical choice for a premium spot in your lineups.
Cooper Kupp is the other major stud on this slate. He put together a historic season at the receiver position in 2021-22, leading the league in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947), and receiving touchdowns (16). Kupp just narrowly missed breaking Calvin Johnson’s record for receiving yards, and no one averaged more PPR points per game than Kupp last season.
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