NFL

NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Sep. 7) for Lions-Chiefs TNF

By Matt Martin @mattmartin_19
Sep 7, 2023

Hallelujah! The NFL returns with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 53 points.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Who better than Patrick Mahomes to kick off our first DFS article of the season? The reigning MVP is coming off of a tremendous season where he averaged 26.2 DraftKings points per game. People were a little worried about the Chiefs offense going into last season, as no one knew what Mahomes would look like without Tyreek Hill. Mahomes silenced any questions with 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns through the air.

Once again, there are a few questions about the Chiefs offense. They’ve lost both starting tackles from a year ago, their longtime offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, who played on 66.58% and 26.37% of team snaps, ranking second and fifth among the Chiefs’ receivers. Despite a decent amount of turnover, it’s still Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. The Chiefs brought in some reinforcements through the draft and free agency, and not to mention a dude named Travis Kelce still plays for the offense.

Don’t get it twisted. Mahomes is the top option in this game, and he holds the highest raw projection by over six points. He’s a lock-in cash games and is a strong building block in tournaments as well.

Kelce’s status is the biggest thing to look for in this game, as he hyperextended his knee in Tuesday’s practice. It’s unlikely he plays, but I think he has more of a shot than the public is perceiving. His status is worth monitoring prior to game time.

He’s riding high off of a 110/1,338/12 stat line from last season. He held a monstrous 25.9% target share and 25.0% share of team air yards. The matchup is above-average as the Lions allowed the 12th-most DraftKings points to tight ends last year.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is up next, and he had a stellar sophomore campaign, eclipsing 100 catches and 1,100 yards. He had a team-high 28% target share, second in air yards share at 26.1%, and a team-high 26.3% target share in the red zone. This Detroit offense also looks fairly different from last year, with D.J. Chark, D’Andre Swift, and obviously T.J. Hockenson finding homes elsewhere. This may lead to Jared Goff leaning on the familiar target in St. Brown early.

Kansas City got shredded in the middle of the field last year, which is exactly where St. Brown operates. The Chiefs defense gave up the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers, which makes this an all-systems go spot for St. Brown.

Jared Goff may not be the same caliber of player as Mahomes, Kelce, or St. Brown, but he’s the quarterback of an explosive offense on a showdown slate. He surely belongs in the stud category. Goff had a solid 2022 campaign, with seven games of over 20 DraftKings points, averaging 18.3 points per contest.

Detroit boasts one of the top offensive lines in the league, and Kansas City still doesn’t have Chris Jones, as they are in contract negotiations. Kansas City allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks last season, and that was with Chris Jones having an amazing season. His absence could allow Detroit to move the ball at will.

If Kelce is ruled out, a lot of lineups are going to try to plug in Mahomes, Goff, and St. Brown, and the majority of lineups will have at least two of them. They’re all great plays, obviously, but roster them mindfully. If you’re going to play those three in tournaments, it makes sense to prioritize some lower-owned options in your last three spots.

It is worth noting that a lot of this discussion is reliant on Kelce’s status for game time. If Kelce is able to play, he becomes an intriguing tournament option as he could end up the lowest owned of the top four studs. This all depends on the pregame reports. With Kelce out, most lineups would be able to comfortably jam in Mahomes, St. Brown, and Goff, and the path to getting different completely changes.

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NFL DFS Midrange Picks

We’ll finally get to see Jahmyr Gibbs in some meaningful action on Thursday night. He was selected 12th overall in this past draft, and his role has been hyped up. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson stated, “We might use Gibbs in some ways people don’t quite think we might.”

We’ve seen preseason hype trains before, but this one feels a little bit more legitimate. Gibbs averaged over three catches per game in his college career and had a 21.4% target rate per route run this past season. The Lions ran a split backfield with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Gibbs and David Montgomery aren’t exactly apples-to-apples comparisons, as Montgomery is more than capable of handling passing-down work.

Kansas City has been a bottom-six defense in receiving points allowed to running backs in each of the last four seasons, and they allowed the second-most targets to opposing running backs in 2022. Gibbs may not get a lot of between-the-tackles work, which will likely be handled by Montgomery. Gibbs will likely handle the majority of passing-down work, but Montgomery is likely to have some.

The likely absence of Chris Jones improves the ground matchup as well, as Kansas City was 15th in yards per carry allowed with Jones on the field in 2022, but dropped to 26th with him off the field. Gibbs will likely be higher owned than Montgomery, which leads me to prefer Montgomery. It’s unclear what the split will be, and if the hype surrounding Gibbs is real and his role is very valuable in Week One, then it feels like he is priced correctly. If his role isn’t what it’s hyped to be, or it takes a couple of games to get there, then he is definitely overpriced.

However, the Lions did draft him in the first round. It’s unlikely they plan on easing him in. Both Detroit backs are certainly viable.

Kadarius Toney is the Chiefs’ most expensive receiver, and despite some questions about his knee, he doesn’t carry an injury designation for Thursday. It’s unclear how much work Toney we’ll actually get, but it’s likely he carries a similar role as he did last year, where he’s used sparingly in a gadget role.

He only ran a route on 19.5% of dropbacks last year once he joined the team, but he did boast a monstrous 32% target rate per route run. The likely loss of Kelce could change Toney’s outlook, but the questions with Toney have always been more about his health than his role. His high price tag will lead to low ownership, but he needs to have a legitimate role in order to pay off that tag.

Isiah Pacheco was a nice boost to the Chiefs’ running game, but he still topped 50% of snaps in just three games, with 13 catches all season. He was a near 50% player when healthy last year, and he wasn’t able to resume contact in practice until August 21st. This may lead to the ghost of Clyde Edwards-Helaire mixing in for some more early down work than we’d usually expect. Personally, I’m off of Pacheco in this spot, as Edwards-Helaire splitting 50/50 or even taking more work feels like the likeliest outcome in my opinion.

Jerick McKinnon will certainly handle passing downs while mixing in for a handful of carries and all of the long-down-and-distance plus two-minute situations. We saw McKinnon get some red zone work last year, and he actually finished with nine receiving touchdowns. McKinnon and Pacheco are both viable, although we’d avoid rostering them together, as both likely need to find the end zone to reach value.

Marvin Jones Jr. is priced in the mid-range, but last year any Lions receiver not named “St. Brown” was rarely involved. We’re not sure how he and the other Detroit receivers will rotate, but it’s hard to get excited about him at this price tag. His ownership will likely be very low in tournaments, and he is a decent leverage piece on St. Brown. However, we’re not very interested in Jones Jr. in this spot.

Toney may be more expensive, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling seems to be the top returning receiver for Kansas City (not by much). He led all receivers in the preseason with 17 pass routes while Mahomes was on the field, with Skyy Moore being second at 11. These two will likely open Kansas City’s 2-WR sets, with Moore playing some of his routes from the slot, and MVS operating solely on the perimeter.

MVS had just a 13% target share last year, but led the team in air yards with a 24.5% share. With his play style, MVS is the type of player that you fade when he’s high-owned but play when he’s low-owned.

Moore was limited in his playing time, but saw a target on 22% of his routes last season. With Smith-Schuster gone and some question marks behind him, Moore could be in for a bigger role. Detroit got gashed by slot wideouts last year, allowing a league-high 11.2 yards per target.

Sam LaPorta was shelved by Detroit this preseason, running just nine routes as he’s clearly going to play a role in this offense. Kansas City allowed a middling 6.9 yards per target to opposing tight ends last season, but an average of 0.5 touchdowns per game.

LaPorta had over half of his yardage in college come after the catch, and Detroit also looked to tight ends often in the red zone. LaPorta could quietly be in for a solid night.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected high-scoring nature, these options may appear to be less optimal, but this will likely lead to them being overlooked.
Rashee Rice ($4,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Rice was drafted in the second round by Kansas City in April and may have some opportunities to work in early. Rice had the fourth-most routes run in the preseason of Kansas City receivers. He’s too expensive to be viable in cash or even single-entry contests, but may be worth a dart throw in large field tournaments.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($3,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Similar to Rice, he probably shouldn’t sniff any cash game or single-entry lineups. However, with Pacheco returning to contact very late in the off-season, CEH could mix in for some early down work. He actually ran some routes in the preseason with Mahomes under center, although Pacheco was inactive for that game. Edwards-Helaire is a solid tournament option.
Josh Reynolds ($2,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Reynolds was second on the team in pass routes in 2022, and has chemistry with Goff going back to their days in Los Angeles. Reynolds is also capable of manning the slot when St. Brown kicks out wide. He’s a strong option at a very cheap price tag.
Noah Gray ($2,400 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): If Kelce is ruled out, Gray will become a very popular salary saver, and for good reason. He’ll become a staple of cash game lineups and a strong play in all formats.
Richie James Jr. ($2,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): It’s unclear if James Jr. will have any role, but he’s certainly capable of rotating into the slot in 3-WR sets, as he ran 85% of his routes from the slot last season. The Kansas City wide receiver room is confusing as a whole, so leaning into uncertainty is viable.
Kalif Raymond ($800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Raymond should be on the field a lot, as he was fourth on the team in routes run last year. With D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams not in the picture, Raymond will surely work in. At such a cheap price, even if he solely rotates with Jones Jr. and Reynolds, he’s still too cheap.
Justin Watson ($200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Watson was third on the team in routes run with Mahomes on the field in the preseason. He rotated in on the perimeter last season, earning a target on 11% of his routes and having an over 20-yard average depth of target. At the stone minimum, he’s a very strong dart throw.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections: