NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Oct. 6): Is It Melvin Gordon SZN?

NFL Week 5 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos. Both of these teams have disappointed to start the year, but the Broncos are listed as 3.5-point home favorites. The total on this game currently sits at 42.0.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game lost two of the top stud options due to injuries. The Colts will be without star running back Jonathan Taylor, who is currently nursing an ankle injury. The Broncos also lost promising running back Javonte Williams to a season-ending injury.

That leaves Michael Pittman Jr. as the most expensive option on DraftKings. Pittman had a phenomenal performance in Week 1, racking up nine catches for 121 yards and one touchdown, but he’s been quiet since then. He missed Week 2 due to an injury and has just 11 catches for 103 yards over the last two weeks.

Despite missing a game, Pittman still leads the Colts in most receiving metrics. No one has seen more than his 23.1% target share, and he also leads the team in air yards share. He also leads their pass-catchers in snaps, and he’s run just one fewer route than Parris Campbell.

That said, it’s tough to envision him having much success against the Broncos. Their pass defense has been stellar to start the year, ranking sixth in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. They’ve been a bit more mediocre against No. 1 receivers – they rank 10th in DVOA vs. the position – but Pittman still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.6.

He’s also grading out as one of the worst options on the slate from a value perspective. He owns a projected Plus/Minus of -4.03 per THE BLITZ, which is the third-worst mark in our NFL Models.

Russell Wilson’s start to his Broncos’ tenure has been forgettable. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -0.96 through his first four games, and he ranks 16th at the position in terms of Pro Football Focus grade. In an ironic twist, Geno Smith – the guy who was tabbed as his replacement in Seattle – currently ranks first.

However, Wilson did show some signs of life last week vs. the Raiders. He finished with 27.48 DraftKings points, albeit with the aid of a rushing touchdown. A rushing TD isn’t super out of the norm for Wilson, but he’s managed three rushing scores or fewer in each of the past seven seasons. It’s not something we can count on moving forward.

Most of his damage will have to be done with his arm, and the injury to Williams could make the Broncos lean on the pass a bit more. Wilson averaged 11.08 adjusted yards per attempt last week, which was easily his best mark of the year. He still has a pair of capable wide receivers to lean on, and Wilson has historically been one of the most efficient passers in the league.

Overall, I’m going to continue to buy low on him. His salary on DraftKings is very reasonable, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. The Colts have also been a massive pass funnel to start the year, ranking 27th in pass defense DVOA and second in rush defense DVOA. This could be the perfect spot for a true breakout performance.