NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Oct. 20): Alvin Kamara in a Smash Spot

NFL Week 6 features a Thursday Night Football showdown between the New Orleans Saints and the Arizona Cardinals at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Cardinals are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 44.0 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Kyler Murray is the most expensive player in this contest, and he has historically been one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy. He currently ranks sixth at the position in fantasy points per game, but the gap between him and the top quarterbacks has been massive. Murray has averaged 19.64 fantasy points per game, while Josh Allen has averaged 29.48. Murray has also scored 19.88 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four games, so he has been far from a stud recently.

Still, Murray’s credentials are legit. He’s one of the best rushing quarterbacks in football, and he’s coming off a 100-yard performance last week vs. the Seahawks. His overall output vs. the Seahawks was disappointing – they entered last week as the clear worst defense in fantasy – but Murray’s rushing production is great news for his fantasy stock moving forward.

Murray draws another solid matchup this week vs. the Saints. They rank just 21st in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Murray owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.9 on DraftKings. Ultimately, he owns the top median and ceiling projections in THE BLITZ.

Alvin Kamara is the top fantasy option for the Saints, and he’s been incredibly busy of late. He’s had at least 25 opportunities in back-to-back weeks, and he’s caught at least six passes in both contests. He’s been targeted on at least 33% of his routes run in back-to-back weeks, and he’s posted a top-10 PPR score at the position in both weeks as well.

It’s worth noting that Kamara’s fantasy production has also come without scoring a touchdown. He’s yet to find the end zone this season, which is nearly unfathomable given his past production. He had nine touchdowns in just 13 games last year, and he led the league with 21 touchdowns two years ago.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Kamara has been below expectations through the first six weeks. He’s averaged 18.0 expected DraftKings points per game but just 15.3 actual (per Pro Football Focus). Overall, he’s been the fourth “unluckiest” running back among those with at least three games played.

Kamara might not be quite as involved this week with the Saints getting a bit healthier, but he should still be able to do some damage vs. the Cardinals. They rank 20th in defensive DVOA, and they’re dead last in pass defense DVOA against running backs.