NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Oct. 13): Breakout Spot For Justin Fields?

NFL Week 6 features a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears. This game is currently listed as a pick ‘em, while the total sits at just 38.0 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Last week’s Thursday Night Football game was an abomination, and somehow, this game might be even worse. There is minimal fantasy star power to choose from, and calling any of these options “studs” is a stretch.

Carson Wentz is the most expensive option on DraftKings, and he has not had a pretty start to his season. He ranks just 24th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks per Pro Football Focus, and both Wentz and head coach Ron Rivera could be playing for their jobs.

However, Wentz’s poor play hasn’t necessarily led to poor fantasy numbers. He’s been inconsistent, but he has had some spike weeks. He’s scored at least 25.86 DraftKings points in three of five games while dipping to 9.64 or less in the other two.

The Bears are also a decent matchup. They rank just 18th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they’ve also played at an above-average pace in neutral game scripts. The Bears have been slightly better against the pass than the run, but no one on their defense is particularly imposing.

The Bears defense has also struggled to get after the quarterback, ranking just 24th in adjusted sack rate. Pass protection has been a big issue for the Commanders this season, with Wentz getting pressured on nearly 35% of his dropbacks. He’s unsurprisingly been much better with a clean pocket, averaging three additional yards per attempt while increasing his completion percentage by 25%. If the Commanders can keep Wentz upright, it’s a good spot for him to put together a decent performance.