NFL Week 10 features a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers starting at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Falcons are currently listed as three-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.5.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Calling anyone in this game a stud is a very liberal use of the term. Still, we have the same salary cap as we do for all the other contests, so I’m grading on a curve.
Cordarrelle Patterson is the most expensive option on DraftKings, and he returned to the Falcons’ lineup in Week 9. He wasted little time making an impact, scoring two touchdowns and racking up 18.3 DraftKings points.
However, 18.3 DraftKings points with the benefit of two touchdowns is not exactly worth bragging about. He had a minimal impact other than his scores, finishing with just 13 carries, one reception, and 53 total yards.
Patterson was stuck in a three-man committee in the Falcons’ backfield, finishing with just 39% of the snaps, 38% of the carries, and a 33% route participation. It’s possible that his role increases as he gets further removed from his injury, but it’s also possible that Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley have earned larger roles moving forward.
Even if Patterson does return to his pre-injury workload – which was closer to 50-55% of the team’s rushing attempts – that doesn’t exactly justify an $11,800 price tag. He owns the worst projected Plus/Minus in THE BLITZ, and he only ranks third in raw projected points.
Marcus Mariota is nearly -$2,000 cheaper than Patterson, making him the clear preferred option. He struggled last week vs. the Chargers, finishing with just 7.56 DraftKings points, and the Falcons have turned into one of the most run-heavy teams in football. They have the second-lowest pass rate in the league this season, and they rank 30th in pass rate above expectation.
That’s obviously not great for a quarterback, but Mariota is capable of pitching in on the ground. He’s 33.8 rushing yards per game, and he’s also added three rushing touchdowns.
The Falcons’ abysmal pass rate also hasn’t stopped him from posting some usual games recently. He’s racked up at least 24.16 DraftKings points in two of his past four contests, one of which was against the Panthers. Carolina ranks just 28th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, so Mariota is capable of repeating his success in this matchup.
He’s one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $10,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
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