NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Dec. 22): Can Jags’ Receivers Overcome Tough Matchup?

NFL Week 16 features a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets starting at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Jets are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 37.0 points.

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NFL DFS Stud Picks

The first thing we should discuss in this game is the weather. I tend to think that the impact of weather on NFL games is overrated, but it does impact public perception. The total on this game has dipped to just 37.0 points, but the weather doesn’t actually look that bad. It’s going to be raining, but it’s not going to be particularly cold, and the winds should be around 15-20 miles per hour. It’s obviously not optimal conditions to be outside, but I don’t see any reason why NFL athletes can’t overcome them. If the passing offenses are going to check in with reduced ownership due to the perceived tough conditions, I’m willing to go in the other direction.

Trevor Lawrence is the most expensive player in this matchup, and he has really come into his own in recent weeks. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s been particularly impressive in his past two. He’s scored at least 31.82 DraftKings points in both, racking up at least 318 passing yards with eight total touchdowns. Lawrence’s performance last week came against the Cowboys, who have one of the toughest pass defenses in football.

Unfortunately, things aren’t going to get any easier this week vs. the Jets. Their pass defense is also excellent – they rank sixth in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA – and they did a great job against a potent Lions’ offense last week. They limited them to just 20 points scored, and seven of them came on a punt return touchdown. When combined with the weather, it’s definitely a subpar spot for Lawrence and the Jags’ offense.

However, one positive is that Lawrence has thrived as a road underdog this season. That’s one of the toughest splits for most quarterbacks, but Lawrence has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.28 in that split this season (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, Lawrence does not grade out well in THE BLITZ, but he still possesses one of the top ceilings in this matchup.