NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Dec. 15): Christian McCaffrey Smash Spot

NFL Week 15 features a Thursday Night Football matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks at 8:15 p.m. ET. The 49ers are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.

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NFL DFS Stud Picks

Christian McCaffrey has been one of the best running backs in fantasy for years, and he’s had no issues adjusting to life in San Francisco. That’s not a huge shock – the 49ers are one of the best teams in football while the Panthers are one of the worst – but it’s always a question mark to see how a player will fit in a new situation.

McCaffrey hasn’t operated as a true bell-cow back, racking up between 25-47% of the team’s carries in the past four weeks. However, he’s maintained an elite receiving role, which is where McCaffrey makes his money. He’s been targeted on 29.3% of his routes run since arriving in San Francisco, which is an excellent number for a high-volume running back.

There’s also a chance that McCaffrey could take on a slightly larger workload vs. the Seahawks. The 49ers haven’t really been challenged in recent weeks, so the team has been able to limit the number of touches that they need to give their star running back. McCaffrey had 14 carries for 119 yards and a score last week, and 13 of them came in the first half. His final carry came with more than 14 minutes left to go in the third period, so the team felt comfortable enough with their lead to let Jordan Mason finish the game. If this week’s matchup is more competitive, McCaffrey has the potential to get to 25 carries + targets.

The Seahawks also represent a tremendous matchup, ranking 26th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA vs. opposing running backs. This sets up as a smash spot for McCaffrey, who easily leads THE BLITZ in median and ceiling projection.

Geno Smith leads the way for the Seahawks, and he has been one of the biggest surprises of the entire year. He has the Seahawks ranked fifth in passing DVOA, and no one thought that their passing attack would improve with Smith replacing Russell Wilson at quarterback. He leads the league with a 71.5% completion percentage, and he owns the ninth-highest Pro Football Focus grade at the position.

Smith has also delivered plenty of value for fantasy players. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.31 on DraftKings, including a mark of +4.56 over his past 10 games. He’s scored at least 20.2 DraftKings points in five straight contests, so he’s been an extremely reliable producer.

Unfortunately, the matchup vs. the 49ers couldn’t be much worse. They rank second in defensive DVOA, and they’ve been a top-five unit against the run and the pass. The 49ers held Smith to his worst performance of the year in their first meeting, limiting him to just 7.08 DraftKings points.

The 49ers’ defense has also taken things to another level in recent weeks, holding six straight opponents to 17 points or less. Smith and the Seahawks’ pass-catchers have been great all year, but expectations should be tempered.