NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Dec. 1): Can The Patriots Slow Down Josh Allen?

NFL Week 13 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots. The Bills are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.

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NFL DFS Stud Picks

Josh Allen has put together an excellent fantasy season. It appears as though his chances of winning the MVP are getting slimmer by the week – Patrick Mahomes has been that good recently – but Allen has played Mahomes basically to a draw for fantasy purposes. Mahomes leads the position with an average of 26.3 points per game, but Allen is right behind at 26.2.

Allen has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games this season, and he possesses an elite skill set as a passer and a runner. He’s averaged a career-best 289.4 passing yards per game with 23 touchdowns this season, and he’s added 51.0 rushing yards per game and five touchdowns on the ground.

On paper, the Patriots stand out as a tough matchup. They rank third in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Allen owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.1 on DraftKings. However, the Patriots’ defenses has inflated their numbers by feasting on inferior opponents. They came crashing back to reality last week vs. the Vikings, with Kirk Cousins shredding them for 299 yards and three touchdowns. The Patriots came into the year expected to be weak against the pass, so expect the regression to continue vs. Allen.

Stefon Diggs is the Bills’ top pass-catcher, and he’s one of the best in the business. He leads all receivers in terms of fantasy points per game, and he’s on pace to set new career highs in basically every category across the board. Overall, he’s averaged 7.6 receptions and 100.9 receiving yards per game, and he’s racked up nine touchdowns in his 11 contests.

Diggs benefits from playing with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but he also dominates from a market share perspective. He’s racked up 29.5% of the Bills’ targets, which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. His 38% air yards share ranks 12th in the league. Diggs has also seen 20 red zone targets this season, and only Justin Jefferson has seen more.

Diggs checks literally every box for fantasy purposes, and he’s in a very similar situation to Allen. The Patriots’ defense has been excellent against No. 1 receivers this season, ranking fifth in DVOA vs. the position, but Jefferson finished with nine catches, 139 yards, and a touchdown in this matchup last week. If Jefferson can find success in this spot, there’s no reason Diggs can’t do the same.