NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Sep. 25): Buy Low on Russell Wilson?

NFL Week 3 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos at 8:20 p.m. ET. The 49ers are currently listed as 1.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 44.0 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Deebo Samuel is one of the most unique players in the league. He’s a wide receiver, and he’s the 49ers’ clear top pass-catcher. He leads the team with a 27.5% target market share, and he’s racked up 14 targets through the first two weeks. Most of his damage is done near the line of scrimmage – his 2.8 average depth of target (aDOT) is one of the lowest marks in the league – but perhaps that will change with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. He was much more effective as a pass-catcher in Week 2, racking up three additional catches and 30 additional yards despite seeing two fewer targets than he did in Week 1.

However, what makes Samuel unique for DFS purposes is his production in the run game. He’s had 12 carries through the first two weeks, which he converted into 105 yards and a touchdown.

His running production is a nice wrinkle, but it’s ultimately not a huge boost to his fantasy profile. Catching passes is clearly better than getting handoffs, and the team’s focus on running the football probably limits Samuel’s upside.

Still, the change to Garoppolo is clearly a positive for Samuel, and he leads our Models in terms of raw projections. He’s a bit pricy, but he’s certainly worth some consideration.

It’s been a weird start to the year for Russell Wilson. He’s on pace to shatter his previous career-high in terms of passing attempts, which is obviously a good thing. He was never properly utilized during his time with the Seahawks, but the Broncos seem more willing to #LetRussCook.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t had his trademark efficiency to start the year. He’s completing just 58.9% of his passes – easily the worst mark of his career – and he’s averaged just 7.6 adjusted yards per attempt. His touchdown rate also sits at just 2.7% despite an average of 6.2% during his tenure in Seattle. Neither of his first two games was against a particularly strong defense, so there’s some cause for concern.

Of course, it’s possible that Wilson bounces back moving forward. It’s been just two weeks, and Wilson has had to learn a new offense and develop chemistry with new receivers for the first time in a long time. I’m expecting better things moving forward.

He owns higher projections than Samuel in THE BLITZ, which makes him a far better value at a cheaper price tag. He should be the highest-owned option on the slate.