We get a fun AFC East showdown to finish off Sunday with the Miami Dolphins traveling to New England to play the Patriots at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Dolphins are listed as 2.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 46.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The only way to start this stud section is to talk about Tyreek Hill. Hill had a monster game in Week 1, seeing 15 targets, while catching 11 balls for 215 yards and two touchdowns. His 47.5 DraftKings points to open the season were a great reminder of just how high his ceiling is.
In his lone game with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback last season against the Patriots, Hill caught eight of 12 targets for 94 yards. In six career games against the Patriots, Hill is averaging 6.0/91.7/0.8.
Hill gets a lot of the credit, but the Dolphins’ aggressive game plan wouldn’t be able to come to fruition without Tagovailoa slinging it. He completed 28-of-45 passes for 466 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception en route to 32.14 DraftKings points.
In his one start against New England last year, Tagovailoa threw for 270 yards, averaged 8.2 yards per attempt, and threw one touchdown.
New England will likely pivot on defense to adjust to the speed of Hill and Jaylen Waddle. New England played man coverage just 28.9% and 13% of the time in their two matchups last year. Their base rate was 34.5%, and we saw them use a heavy dose of man last week at 49.2%. Belichick can make his adjustments, but this offense is lethal and likely will find a way.
Waddle took a backseat last week while Hill handled the spotlight. Waddle is nursing an oblique injury, but he was a full participant in practice on Thursday and is in no danger of missing this game.
Hill and Waddle are priced closely, and Hill will likely see higher ownership. My initial reaction is to not overthink it, play Hill over Waddle, and differentiate elsewhere. Hill saw a first-read target on 29% of his routes compared to just 15% for Waddle. This shows that the game plan really was to focus mainly on Hill. Waddle was nursing an oblique injury, but if paying all the way up for one of these two, it’s hard not to go with Hill
The matchup may play into Waddle’s favor since we’re likely to see New England deploy a zone-heavy approach. With Tagovailoa in, Waddle has a 27.2% target rate per route run against zone compared to 17.1% against man.
Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t have the exact same lion’s share of the work as we saw with Damien Harris injured last year, but his usage was strong nonetheless. He handled 55% of the rush attempts while running a route on 60% of Mac Jones‘ dropbacks. He also handled all of the short-down-and-distance work and two-thirds of the long-down-and-distance work, while playing on nearly 90% of the two-minute drill snaps.
He handled 12 carries for 25 yards, and caught six of six targets for 64 yards. The Chargers decimated Miami on the ground last week, with their running backs combining for 208 yards and two touchdowns on 32 rushes.
Mac Jones had a very nice fantasy performance last week, throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns en route to 28.14 DraftKings points. This is likely unsustainable going forward, as it was a very negative game script and Jones needed 54 pass attempts to get these numbers.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Raheem Mostert was one of the most popular plays on last Sunday’s main slate, and he turned in a modest performance. He carried the ball 10 times for 37 yards and a touchdown while catching two of two targets for 13 yards.
This matchup is brutal, as Miami running backs totaled 117 yards on 42 carries against New England last year. Mostert is a strong volume-based play, and he has explosiveness. However, this matchup is worrisome.
Kendrick Bourne was a pleasant surprise for Patriots fans last week, seeing 11 targets and catching six balls for 64 yards and two touchdowns. DeVante Parker was inactive, and New England dropped back to pass 54 times, both of which heavily worked in Bourne’s favor. Parker is questionable for this matchup, but even if he’s in, it shouldn’t affect Bourne’s role. Bourne is a solid play.
Parker was limited in Thursday’s practice, and so was Kayshon Boutte, who only costs $600 on DraftKings and filled in for Parker last week. If Parker were to miss again, we’d expect Boutte to be a near-every-down receiver once again and a very strong play. If Parker plays, it may just lower Boutte’s ownership, and I’ll likely still be on him.
Offseason addition JuJu Smith-Schuster may have taken an all-time quick trip to the doghouse, running a route on 47% of the dropbacks and not playing in the Patriots’ two-minute drill with the game on the line. He’s probably off my radar for single-entry lineups.
Demario Douglas also manned the slot, seeing seven targets and catching four balls for 40 yards. He ran a route on 47% of the dropbacks, and also appears to be a strong value.
Ezekiel Elliott‘s debut with New England was a mixed bag, carrying the ball seven times for 29 yards, while receiving seven targets, and catching five of them for 14 yards. This is highly unlikely to continue, as I’d bet Elliot won’t have a 29% target rate per route run for the long term. He’s a little bit overpriced, especially considering Stevenson was dealing with an illness in Week 1, which likely led to Elliot’s extended role.
Hunter Henry looks to have a secure role, as he caught five of six targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. He ran 42 routes while seeing a 14.3% target rate per route run. He’s a strong option in the mid tier.
De’Von Achane was a healthy scratch in Week 1, but he was nursing an injury going into the week. If he is active, he could be an interesting tournament target.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options should be even more viable than usual.
- Durham Smythe ($3,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Durham Smythe saw seven targets in Week 1, catching three balls for 44 yards. He ran a route on 91% of the dropbacks and is one of the strongest value plays,
- Braxton Berrios ($2,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Braxton Berrios ran a route on 63% of the team’s dropbacks, while having a healthy 17.2-yard average depth of target, seeing five targets in Week 1. He’s another strong value play on a slate without many of them.
