The first Sunday of Week 1 comes to a close with a matchup between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Cowboys are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
After the departure of Ezekiel Elliot, it is finally Tony Pollard‘s backfield, and he comes in as the most expensive player on this showdown slate. We know Pollard is an explosive back, and his fantasy production always came down to whether he got enough volume. He was first in yards after contact per carry last year, and he’s averaged nearly 20 fantasy points per game in his 13 career games with 15 or more touches.
We can probably expect Pollard to get 12-15 carries (with upside for more) and 3-5 targets. He has a high floor, while also posting a very high ceiling. New York allowed the second-most yards per carry to opposing backs last year, so there’s no reason to hesitate due to the matchup. Pollard is a strong option in all formats and a player to consider for your captain spot.
Flipping to the New York side, Saquon Barkley is priced just $400 less than Pollard while carrying a nearly identical projection. On the contrary to Pollard, Barkley’s volume wasn’t a question last season. He was third in the NFL in touches last season, and he saw 33 combined touches in the two games against Dallas.
Barkley wasn’t extremely efficient with his touches, but he still showed explosiveness. Dallas allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points to opposing backs on the year, and returned a very strong defensive unit that is one of the best in the league.
Barkley is likely to be the focal point of New York’s offense once again.
CeeDee Lamb will once again be the top option in Dallas’ passing game and Dak Prescott‘s go-to guy. Lamb had over 100 catches for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns last season, with a 27.4% target rate per route run. Lamb is the alpha receiver in this offense, and he shredded the Giants last season with 14/193/1 on 23 targets. Lamb is an extremely strong option Sunday night and my personal favorite captain option.
Prescott is coming off a middling season where he averaged 19.3 DraftKings points per game. He missed five regular season games, but he still managed to throw 17 interceptions. A handful of them weren’t his fault, but that’s a daunting number nonetheless.
The Giants’ defense was middle of the pack against opposing quarterbacks last season, but Prescott had subpar numbers against them with 261 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. The matchup is nothing to worry about, however, and we’re expecting Prescott to have a great season. He’s a strong option in all formats.
Daniel Jones is the final player in the “stud” section. He had a strong finish to the 2022 campaign with 24.76, 36.18, and 30.84 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. We won’t touch on the Divisional Round performance against Philadelphia. He finished as the QB10 on the year and made strides under Brian Daboll.
If Jones could improve as a passer, he could be in for some big weeks this year. We know that he’s going to run, as he had seven games with at least 50 rushing yards. He looks like a strong option Sunday night despite the difficult matchup. If this Giants offensive line can’t hold up, then Jones might be in trouble. However, increased pressure may lead to Jones taking off and utilizing his legs more.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Darren Waller is currently questionable for this matchup with a hamstring injury, but he’s expected to suit up. All summer there was hype about Waller’s play in camp and that he was being targeted heavily by Jones.
We’ll see how this holds up Sunday, but the matchup is difficult with Dallas allowing the third-fewest yards per target to tight ends last year. Waller looks like a solid tournament option, as rostering him will force you to play less of the top studs.
The other big-ticket offseason addition in this game is Brandin Cooks. Cooks should have a quick path to targets behind CeeDee Lamb, as Dalton Schultz is out of town. Cooks had great splits in man coverage last season, seeing a 27.4% target rate per route run against man compared to 19.7% against zone. The Giants rely heavily on man coverage, and they’re starting two rookie cornerbacks.
Isaiah Hodgins came on strongly towards the end of last season with double-digit DraftKings points in five of New York’s last seven games. He was heavily reliant on touchdowns, with five trips to the end zone over that stretch. The matchup is difficult, and his price tag should keep his ownership low.
Michael Gallup was a shell of himself last season, catching just 39 balls over 14 games. Similar to Cooks, Gallup saw a higher target rate per route run against man as opposed to zone (21.6% vs. 15.3%). He’s likely a little too expensive for his role. He certainly could pay off his tag, but with Lamb, Pollard, and Cooks all seeming ahead of him, I’m a little bearish on Gallup.
Darius Slayton will be the other receiver in two-WR sets with Hodgins. It’s tough to be too confident in the two of them with Stephon Gilmore and Trevon Diggs waiting in the secondary. Slayton and Hodgins profile similarly, but I’ll lean to Slayton for the salary savings.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options should be even more viable than usual. Dallas’ defense looks like a strong option Sunday night.
- Jake Ferguson ($4,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Jake Ferguson saw limited work last year, but he was productive when on the field. He averaged 1.67 yards per route run and a 21.2% target rate per route run. Dallas used him lightly in the preseason, showing they’re confident in his role in the offense.
- Jalin Hyatt ($4,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Rookie Jalin Hyatt seems to clearly be the fourth receiver in New York’s rotation, but he’s priced higher than Parris Campbell. He’s a decent large-field tournament option, but he’s the fourth receiver in a passing game that I’m pessimistic about overall.
- Parris Campbell ($4,400 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel): Parris Campbell is the top option of New York’s receivers in my opinion. On FanDuel he’s too expensive, but he’s a nice salary relief on DraftKings. Campbell will play in the slot and avoid Stephon Gilmore and Trevon Diggs, making him appealing.
- Jalen Tolbert ($1,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Jalen Tolbert put together a strong preseason and was held out of the finale, suggesting he may have a role in the offense. He’s a tough sell in single-entry contests, but Tolbert is a solid punt in large-field contests on a showdown slate that is devoid of value.
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