NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Oct. 23): Can Kenny Pickett Take Advantage of Elite Matchup?

NFL Week 7 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins starting at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Dolphins are currently listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 44.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game doesn’t feature a ton of top-end fantasy talent, but Tyreek Hill stands out as the clear exception. He had a phenomenal run with the Chiefs’ offense, and he’s brought that success with him to South Beach. He’s racked up the third most fantasy points at the position this season, even though he’s managed just two touchdowns.

Hill has stepped in as the clear alpha in the Dolphins’ passing attack. He’s racked up a 30.8% target share – the sixth-highest mark in the league – and he ranks second in targets per route run among players with at least 50 routes. Hill has also gobbled up 743 air yards this season, which is the second-highest mark in the league.

Tyreek has also found success regardless of who he’s been catching passes from. He had 12 catches for 177 yards with Teddy Bridgewater last week, and he had 45.0 DraftKings points with Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2. Tua has been more effective than Bridgewater in terms of touchdown rate and adjusted yards per attempt, so his return should be viewed as a positive for the Dolphins’ receivers.

The matchup is also solid for Tyreek. The Steelers have dipped to just 17th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they’ve generated far less pressure on opposing quarterbacks since losing T.J. Watt. Hill’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.9 is tied for the third-best mark on DraftKings, and he stands out as one of the strongest options in THE BLITZ.

Speaking of Tua, he’s also a viable fantasy option in his return to the lineup. His season has been up-and-down, with three negative Plus/Minus games sandwiched around a massive outing vs. the Ravens. Of course, it’s hard to hold either of his last two outings against him since he was dealing with injuries in both.

When Tua has been on the field, the results have mostly been good. He’s averaged 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt and has thrown for touchdowns on seven percent of his attempts. Both of those marks are among the best in football, so it will be interesting to see if he can sustain them over a larger sample size.

One thing working in his favor is his elite pass-catching duo. Hill and Jaylen Waddle are arguably the best tandem in the league, and they’ve accounted for most of his production. Pairing Tua with one or both of his stud pass-catchers makes a lot of sense in this matchup.