Sunday Night Football gives us an absolute banger between the Dolphins and Eagles at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Eagles are listed as three-point home favorites, while the total sits at 52.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Tyreek Hill is the definition of a stud, and he leads the way on this showdown slate. His slate-high price tag is daunting, but he’s been an absolute machine this year. He’s averaged 36.9 DraftKings points in his four games against non-divisional opponents.
He only needs 186 more yards to reach 1,000, and he’s only played six games. He claimed he was going for 2,000 yards, and it may be far more realistic than originally thought. Philadelphia has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers and has consistently given up big games to WR1s. Hill is one of the top options on the slate.
Jalen Hurts has been nothing short of spectacular from a fantasy perspective this year. Outside of a down performance in Week 1, he’s averaged 25.9 DraftKings points per game.
Miami hasn’t faced many competent offenses, but Josh Allen and Justin Herbert were able to dice them up for the most part. Lane Johnson suffered an ankle injury last week, and his status is worth monitoring. Hurts is still the top option on the slate regardless, but he’s been affected by pressure, and he was pressured on 45% of his dropbacks with Johnson off the field last week.
Tua Tagovailoa is currently the MVP frontrunner, with 20-plus DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks in easy victories over the Panthers and Giants.
This Eagles defense appears daunting, but its now ravaged by injuries and has faced a poor slate of quarterbacks outside of Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins.
If Philadelphia is able to get pressure, it could be a long night for Tua. However, the Eagles have been touched up when teams utilize presnap motion, and no one uses it at a higher rate than Miami. Tagovailoa is a great play tonight as well.
A.J. Brown has started to separate as the alpha in this offense, averaging 27.85 DraftKings points over the last four games. He’s averaging 24.85 DraftKings points per game over that stretch without touchdowns, showing that he’s not reliant on finding paydirt to pay off his tag. He could go slightly overlooked, as he’s priced right below the quarterbacks.
Raheem Mostert has taken over the backfield with De’Von Achane out. Mostert parlayed 20 opportunities last week into 132 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. However, with Jeff Wilson Jr. being activated and likely seeing work, Mostert is likely too expensive. Not to bury the lede, but Wilson quickly becomes the top value on the slate and is an easy click at the minimum price.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Jaylen Waddle remains one of the most prominent and electric receivers in the league, he just also remains in Hill’s shadow. He’s seen 19 targets over the last two weeks, with 12 catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns. He’s a solid option in the mid-range, but I think I slightly prefer D’Andre Swift for cheaper.
Swift showed a massive ceiling as a receiver last week, and he quietly has 20 targets over the last three games. He caught eight of 10 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown last week. He’s now scored at least 16 DraftKings points in each game since Week 1. Miami has allowed a middling 4.2 yards per carry to opposing backs.
DeVonta Smith is not to be forgotten in the mid-range. Like Waddle, he’s taken a backseat to teammate A.J. Brown as of late, but he still sees healthy usage. He saw 11 targets last week, catching five balls for 44 yards. He profiles similarly to Waddle and Swift, but I prefer the other two. Including price, Swift is my favorite, with Waddle close behind, and Smith in third.
Dallas Goedert saw healthy usage last week, catching five of eight targets for 42 yards. Miami has allowed almost six receptions per game to tight ends, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. He’s not in the same range as the three players I just mentioned, but he’s the only player really in this price range. Goedert is a solid option, but if he’s seeing ownership I’ll likely look elsewhere.
Salvon Ahmed is unplayable with Jeff Wilson returning, and Kenneth Gainwell‘s role has been very small with Swift’s breakout.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Braxton Berrios ($2,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Braxton Berrios comes in with a nice price tag, and he’s Miami’s slot man. He ran a route on nearly 50% of the dropbacks last week and has a 7% target share on the year.
- Durham Smythe ($1,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Smythe comes in extremely cheap, and he runs a route on the majority of dropbacks. However, he barely gets targeted and doesn’t have much run-after-catch ability.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ($1,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Julio Jones will likely carve into his role, but Zaccheaus should have a stranglehold over the WR3 role for now. He’s run a route on 68%, 88%, and 84% of the dropbacks when Quez Watkins has been out.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. ($200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): I raved about him earlier, but Wilson looks like one of the easiest clicks ever on a showdown slate. There are tons of studs to play, and he opens up a lot of builds. He’ll likely serve as Mostert’s backup and should see some work.
- Cedrick Wilson ($200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Cedrick Wilson ran a route on 32% of dropbacks over the past four weeks, and he has seen a 10% target share on a healthy 8-yard aDOT. He’s a solid punt option.
