NFL

NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Oct. 1) for Chiefs-Jets SNF

By Matt Martin @mattmartin_19
Oct 1, 2023

The Chiefs are traveling to MetLife Stadium to play the Jets at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are listed as eight-and-a-half-point road favorites, while the total sits at 41.5 points.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game looked a lot better on paper before the season. We expected a primetime matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, but sadly, Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1.

We still get the star power of Mahomes, with his right-hand man Travis Kelce being the talk of all of social media. Hopefully, you’re ready for about 25 Taylor Swift cameos because they’re coming.

Mahomes lit up the Chicago Bears with ease last weekend and now has gone for 25 DraftKings points in back-to-back contests. The Jets poise Kansas City’s toughest defensive matchup yet, as they’ve allowed the 11th-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks.

You already know what I’m going to say about him being a quarterback on a showdown slate, but it’s Patrick Mahomes. I don’t care about the matchup. He’s a near-lock in all formats and a very strong option as captain.

Kelce has been eased back from injury, only running a route on 57.8% and 68.3% of dropbacks the past two weeks. He’s caught 11 balls for 94 yards and two touchdowns since returning.

The Jets boast a tremendous secondary, so attacking them in the middle of the field is usually the path of least resistance. This seems like a nightmare scenario for New York, as they’ve allowed a bottom-ten catch rate, yards per target, and touchdown rate to tight ends.

Garrett Wilson looked like one of the prime candidates for a breakout season, so the loss of Aaron Rodgers has really affected him. He’s posted some middling scores, with 14.4, 16.3, and 9.8 DraftKings points.

Kansas City has allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers, further diminishing Wilson’s outlook. He makes for a strong option in tournaments with his big play upside, but I’m likely not going to get there tonight.

Ah, our good friend Zach Wilson. I’m in the minority here, but I love having this guy as a part of my life. I hope he can put up a good performance tonight to extend his tenure as the starter, but it’s an uphill battle. Kansas City has allowed the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks. They benefitted from the lowly Bears last week, but they kept Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence in check.

I’ll likely take my chances with Wilson tonight, as he has mobility and could see his ownership being the lowest of the four players priced over $9,000.

NFL DFS Mid-range Picks

Isiah Pacheco was dealing with a hamstring injury but still handled 15 carries and saw three targets in last weekend’s win over Chicago.

Pacheco handled 60% of the first-half running back touches, showing he’s the top guy in this backfield. Pacheco should see a healthy amount of work as a large favorite, but the matchup isn’t ideal. New York is allowing just 3.6 yards per carry to opposing backs.

This matchup may call for more Jerick McKinnon, as New York has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points through the air to opposing backs. He showed a red zone role last year through the air and struck lightning again last week. However, it is a little tough to stomach, as he had just five touches last week and has just eight targets and three carries through three games. I prefer Pacheco to McKinnon, price included.

Breece Hall has been shut down over the past two weeks, totaling 16 carries for 27 yards and catching one of four targets for 9 yards. His role has been increasing, though, seeing 50% of the snaps and 50% of the backfield touches last week. He hadn’t topped 34% of the snaps or 36% of the touches in the first two weeks, which signals that he’s reclaiming the bulk of the workload.

This hinders Dalvin Cook’s outlook tremendously. Cook’s lack of burst makes him reliant on volume, and it seems his volume is going to continue decreasing. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing backs on the year. With Wilson under center, it’s likely they still lean run-heavy. Hall looks like a solid play tonight.

Are you ready to talk about the Kansas City receivers? No? Too bad. Get ready for another rendition of trying to pinpoint who Mahomes is going to throw to after Kelce.

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This is honestly an easier situation than usual, as my favorite play, regardless of salary, is the second cheapest of the bunch. Rashee Rice saw a season-high 51% route share last week, and this wasn’t blowout-related, as he ran a route on 50% of the first-half dropbacks. He saw an elite 33% target rate per route run, He also has run 58% of his routes from the slot, and the place to attack New York is in the middle of the field.

Skyy Moore ran a route on 59% of the dropbacks, which likely was related to the blowout. However, the emergence of Rice likely impacts Moore the most. Moore runs a lot of his routes from the slot, where Rice does his work too. Both Moore and Rice can get there tonight, but I lean toward Rice.

Kadarius Toney consistently sees schemed usage, but his route participation is never that high. We’ll see how ownership shakes out, but I’ll likely avoid him.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling maintains his field-stretching role and is a deep threat that’s worth keeping an eye on on showdown slates. I prefer him to Toney, but he’s behind Rice and Moore for me.

Justin Watson is the cheapest of the bunch but has actually run a similar number of routes to Moore and Valdes-Scantling. He’s seen 12 targets through three games and has some big play ability. A healthy Toney partnered with Rice’s emergence could negatively impact his role, but the salary is very cheap. He’s certainly in play tonight, as Kansas City’s wide receiver room never seems to make sense.

There’s not much usage to go around with Wilson under center, but Allen Lazard has still seen a handful of targets each game. He saw four in Weeks 1 and 2 and five in Week 3. He runs shorter routes, so is reliant on volume and touchdowns to pay off. However, he is very cheap, keeping him in play.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options should be even more viable than usual. The Chiefs’ defense will likely see some solid ownership as they’re going against Zach Wilson.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($3,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Edwards-Helaire had 15 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown last week, but most of this was due to the blowout. He did see a goal-line carry early in the game, showing he has some touchdown viability. If leaning into a Chiefs’ blowout script, CEH makes sense.
Tyler Conklin ($1,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Tyler Conklin has run a route on 78% of the team dropbacks and has a very cheap price tag. He has just nine catches through three games, but you don’t need much for him to pay off his price tag.
Randall Cobb ($1,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Randall Cobb hasn’t seen much utilization but is the team’s slot receiver and has a very cheap role. In a potential trailing game script, he could see a few targets.
Mecole Hardman Jr. ($200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Hardman played just two snaps last week and has a very small role. However, this is a revenge game, and maybe they want to manufacture some touches for the former Chief. Just know the most likely outcome from Hardman is a 0.

The Chiefs are traveling to MetLife Stadium to play the Jets at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are listed as eight-and-a-half-point road favorites, while the total sits at 41.5 points.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections: