NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Nov. 27): Christian Watson Due For Regression?

NFL Week 12 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are currently listed as 6.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 46.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The Eagles have been one of the best teams in the league this season, and Jalen Hurts has been a big reason why. He’s blossomed into one of the best quarterbacks in football, particularly for fantasy purposes. Hurts has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his 10 games, including each of his past four. He ranks third at the position with an average of 24.33 fantasy points per game, trailing only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

Hurts has made some great strides as a passer, but his running ability is what makes him special. He’s essentially doubled as the Eagles’ quarterback and goal line running back this season, racking up 36 carries inside the red zone. No other quarterback can come close to that figure – Justin Fields ranks second with 24 – and no running back has eclipsed Hurts’ total either. Hurts also has 15 carries from inside the five-yard line, and only two other players have more than seven. That gives him arguably the most touchdown upside in the entire league.

He should be able to put his legs to good use vs. the Packers. They rank just 29th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, and if they load up to stop the run, Hurts should have opportunities to win with his arm. The Packers did that against Derrick Henry last week, and Ryan Tannehill torched them for a season-high 333 yards. Hurts unsurprisingly leads THE BLITZ in median and ceiling projection, and he ranks first in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus as well.

After Hurts, there’s a pretty steep drop-off. A.J. Brown is the next-most expensive option, but he doesn’t possess nearly the same appeal. He’s racked up six targets or fewer in three straight games, and he finished with just 1.7 DraftKings points two games ago.

His matchup vs. the Packers is hit-and-miss. He will draw a few snaps against Jaire Alexander, who remains one of the better cornerbacks in football. However, he’ll also get snaps against the Packers’ other corners, and those matchups are exploitable.

The bigger issue with Brown is his price tag. He’s priced like a legit alpha receiver, and he simply doesn’t have the metrics to back that up. He does lead the team in targets and air yards, but the gap between him and DeVonta Smith is razor-thin. It’s hard to get behind him at $11,200.