NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Nov. 20): Buy Low on Justin Herbert

NFL Week 11 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs are listed as 5.5-point road favorites in this AFC West showdown, while the total sits at 52.0 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

We’ve had some subpar primetime games in recent weeks, but this game features some heavy hitters for fantasy purposes. That starts with Patrick Mahomes, who has emerged as the MVP front-runner of late. He’s had another fantastic season, leading the league with 25 passing touchdowns and 326.2 passing yards per game.

Mahomes doesn’t provide the same elite rushing production as some of the other top fantasy QBs, but it hasn’t had a huge impact on his fantasy value. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.92 through his first nine outings on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 35.14 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.

Mahomes will be without two of his top receivers in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, but that doesn’t figure to be a huge issue. He has plenty of other pass-catchers to lean on, and the Chargers rank 20th in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA. They’ve been better against the pass than the run, but Mahomes leads all players in median and ceiling projection per THE BLITZ.

Austin Ekeler is the most expensive option for the Chargers, and he’s been worth every penny of late. He struggled last week in a tough matchup vs. the 49ers, but he had racked up at least 24.3 DraftKings points in five straight games. He’s not the busiest player from a rushing perspective, but he makes up for it with his elite receiving usage and touchdown upside. He’s racked up 49 total targets over his past four games, and he’s been targeted on 31% of his routes run this season. That’s an elite figure for a running back. Ekeler’s 10 scores also place him one behind Nick Chubb for the league lead.

Ekeler draws a fantastic matchup this week. The Chiefs haven’t been quite as bad defensively as they have been in years past, but they’re still just 26th in pass defense DVOA vs. opposing running backs. That plays perfectly into Ekeler’s skill set.

That said, Ekeler may not be quite as involved in the passing game now that the Chargers are getting healthier. Ekeler’s monster target share recently has been partly out of necessity. They didn’t have many other viable options with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen sidelined, but both players are expected to return vs. the Chiefs. Ekeler still possesses plenty of upside, but expectations should be tempered.