NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Nov. 13): Pair Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler?

NFL Week 10 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This contest will feature two of the most well-rounded running backs in football. That starts with Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness over the past few years while playing for one of the worst teams in football. He managed just 10 total games in 2020-21 and 2021-22, and he averaged just 4.2 yards per rush. However, he still managed more than 100 scrimmage yards per game, and he racked up eight total touchdowns.

He was acquired by the 49ers before the deadline, and it seems like a match made in heaven. The 49ers like to lean on their run game, and they have an excellent offensive head coach in Kyle Shanahan. The team also desperately lacked playmakers for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

The early returns for McCaffrey were extremely promising. He was limited in his first game with the team, but he broke out in his second. He played on 81% of the teams offensive snaps, and he racked up 75% of the rushing attempts. He was also highly involved in the passing attack, racking up a target on 45% of his routes run. McCaffrey played in all the short-down and distance situations, and he accounted for three touchdowns: one passing, one rushing, and one receiving. He’s the first player to score in all three methods since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2005.

The Chargers also represent a fantastic matchup for McCaffrey. They’re 29th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, and they’re 31st in pass defense DVOA vs. opposing running backs. McCaffrey already possesses one of the highest ceilings in football, and it’s even higher than usual in this spot. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection in THE BLITZ by a substantial margin.

Austin Ekeler is the Chargers’ do-it-all running back, and he has been tremendous for fantasy purposes of late. He’s racked up at least 24.3 DraftKings points in each of his past five games, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each.

Ekeler doesn’t dominate the touches in the running game – he has just 51% of the Chargers’ carries this season – but he makes up for it with his elite usage as a receiver. He’s racked up a 21% target market share, and he’s been targeted on a ridiculous 35.4% of his routes run. That’s the top mark among running backs with at least 110 routes this season.

Ekeler also dominates the touches in the red zone, giving him as much touchdown upside as anyone in football. He’s scored in each of his past five contests, and he’s had multiple touchdowns in four of them.

That said, the 49ers will present a tough test for Ekeler. They rank second in pass defense DVOA vs. running backs, and Ekeler’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.1 is the worst mark in our NFL Models. Ekeler should still be able to provide value in this spot, but his ceiling is definitely a bit lower than usual.