Sunday Night Football gives us yet another Jets primetime game at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Jets are listed as 1.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 35.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Davante Adams checks in as the most expensive player on the slate, and it has been tough sledding for him as of late. He erupted in Week 3 against Pittsburgh, but he hasn’t topped 16 DraftKings points in a game since. He’s had single-digit performances in four of his last five games.
Now Adams gets a matchup with the stellar Jets secondary, which has allowed the fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers. There are a lot of reasons to be anti-Adams tonight, and I’m expecting the field to feel the same way. Adams is a good tournament option, but he isn’t one of the preferred studs in optimal formats.
Breece Hall continues to see a lot of volume in a struggling Jets offense. He saw 16 carries and four targets last week, totaling 60 yards from scrimmage.
Las Vegas has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs, and Hall is averaging 20 touches per game since Coach Saleh said he’d take over the backfield. It’s hard to poke any holes in Hall’s outlook. He’ll be popular, but he’s a smash play.
Similar to Hall, Josh Jacobs has been seeing all of the volume that he can handle. He saw 26 carries in a blowout win last week against the Giants, totaling 98 yards and finding the end zone twice. New York has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs. They’re solid on a per-carry basis, but Jacobs should see enough volume to pay off.
Garrett Wilson has been getting peppered with targets, and it feels like a massive game is coming. He’s seen 38 targets over the past three weeks, with 17, 20.6, and 14 DraftKings points.
Las Vegas has been pretty stout against opposing wide receivers, allowing the sixth-fewest DraftKings points. However, Wilson has a 33% target share and a massive 48% air-yards share. He’s going to get the ball thrown to him, regardless of who he’s lining up across from.
The revolving door at quarterback hasn’t helped Jakobi Meyers, who has just six targets in his past two games. He did have a 17-yard rushing touchdown last week to salvage his fantasy score. Meyers has been very dependent on touchdowns for his fantasy scoring, and this matchup partnered with game environment doesn’t set up well for him.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Zach Wilson and Aidan O’Connell headline the mid-range section, boasting two of the cheapest price tags I’ve seen on quarterbacks for a showdown slate.
Both of them have struggled mightily, but their cheap tags put them on my radar. I prefer Wilson if just picking one. Both defenses have limited opposing quarterbacks, with New York allowing the sixth-fewest and Las Vegas the eighth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing signal callers.
Allen Lazard is priced in no-man’s land, and it’s been a tough year for the former Packers wideout. He caught two of six targets for 18 yards last week. That marked his fourth-straight game with single-digit DraftKings points, as he’s only reached double figures once this year. He likely needs to find the end zone to pay off his tag.
After last week’s mispricing, Tyler Conklin was priced up to an appropriate range. He makes for an interesting tournament option, as his ownership will likely stay in check. Most people will opt for the defenses or kickers, who project better for cheaper.
Dalvin Cook continues to get phased out and is too expensive for his minimum role. There would need to be an injury to Hall for him to be viable.
Michael Mayer ran a route on 60% of the dropbacks last week, and the Jets have allowed the third-highest touchdown rate to opposing tight ends. He’s probably the best bet for raw points below the defenses and kickers.
Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah each see a little bit of work behind Jacobs, but they aren’t really on my radar for tonight.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Hunter Renfrow ($1,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Renfrow saw three targets and caught two balls for 32 yards. His role is limited, but he’s an okay punt option.
- Tre Tucker ($800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): I prefer Tucker to Renfrow, as he plays more and sees some schemed touches.
- Xavier Gipson ($200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): I was high on Gipson last week, and he delivered,
