NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Jan. 8): Breakout Spot for Aaron Rodgers?

NFL Week 18 wraps up with a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Packers are listed as five-point home favorites, while the total sits at 49.0 points.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This is the final game of the regular season, and the stakes for the Packers couldn’t be higher. A win assures them a spot in the playoffs, while a loss leaves them on the outside looking in. The Lions could also get into the postseason with a win, but they would need the Seahawks to lose earlier in the day. That shouldn’t have a huge impact on the Lions – Dan Campbell will have his team ready to go either way – but there’s a chance that this game is “meaningless” for Detroit.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the most expensive player in this contest, and he has joined the ranks of the truly elite fantasy receivers. He’s averaged 17.1 PPR points per game, which is the ninth-highest mark at the position.

St. Brown has commanded a WR1 workload all season for a Lions’ offense that has been surprisingly explosive. They rank fifth in points per game and fourth in yards, and St. Brown has been a big reason why. He’s racked up 27.7% of the Lions’ targets this season, but that number isn’t an accurate reflection of his workload. He missed one game and was limited in two others, but he’s been targeted on 32% of his routes run. That mark trails only Tyreek Hill’s mark of 33% among high-volume receivers.

However, the Packers represent a tough test. They’ve been much easier to run on than pass against this season, which has made them a tough fantasy matchup for receivers. They’ve allowed the 10th-fewest points per game to the position, and St. Brown owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.5 on DraftKings. He had one of his worst games of the year in his first meeting with Green Bay, racking up just four catches for 55 yards on nine targets.

Ultimately, St. Brown is a bit overpriced for my liking at $11,000 on DraftKings.