The NFC matchup gives us the Detroit Lions trying to reach their first Super Bowl. They have a tough matchup in San Francisco, as the 49ers are listed as seven-point home favorites, while the total sits at 51.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Christian McCaffrey comes in with one of the most expensive price tags I’ve ever seen, but it’s earned. He’s the engine of the San Francisco offense, and he’s topped 20 DraftKings points in all but four games this year, averaging 26.2 per game.
Despite the lofty tag, he’s one of the top Points/Salary options on the slate. Detroit has allowed the fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs, but we just saw Rachaad White total 91 yards and a score in the Divisional Round. If Deebo Samuel is out, McCaffrey will see 100% of the rushing work and will likely see an uptick in passing game usage. Even if Samuel plays, he’ll surely be limited. McCaffrey is undoubtedly the top option.
Speaking of Samuel, he’s off my radar for this contest. If he plays, there’s a chance he’s very limited, and he was fairly ineffective when playing through injuries earlier this year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has now either exceeded 100 yards or found the end zone in six straight games, with six straight games over 20 DraftKings points. San Francisco has been middling to opposing receivers, giving up some production on both the perimeter and slot.
St. Brown does most of his damage over the middle of the field, but San Francisco is strongest in the middle. They have elite linebackers in Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. St. Brown is certainly a strong option, but I’m worried about Detroit as a whole here.
Frank Ragnow is dealing with knee and ankle injuries, while Jonah Jackson is set to miss. San Francisco will likely get pressure on Jared Goff, and Goff has completed just over 50% of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt when pressured. Goff has been middling in two great matchups, and San Francisco has allowed the sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Brock Purdy‘s performance was one to forget last week. He had 15.48 DraftKings points and didn’t turn the ball over, but he had multiple errant throws and likely should’ve thrown multiple interceptions. Purdy has always struggled in the rain, but he gets a fair-weather game this week.
Detroit has been carved up this year on the back end, allowing the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Lions have a great pressure rate, but Purdy still averages the second-most yards per attempt in the league when under pressure. I’m expecting him to come back with a strong performance and dismantle this Detroit secondary.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been electric for Detroit this postseason, with 182 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries and eight receptions. Despite his explosiveness, it’s been David Montgomery seeing the majority of the work. Montgomery has out-snapped Gibbs 71 to 45 in the playoffs, with Montgomery seeing 29 opportunities to Gibbs’ 25.
The matchup is intimidating as a road underdog, but San Francisco has been vulnerable on the ground to opposing backs. It’s hard to justify the price gap between the two, as, despite Gibbs’ explosiveness, I heavily prefer Montgomery for cheaper.
Brandon Aiyuk gets a great matchup regardless of Samuel’s status. I hope Samuel does suit up so Detroit can’t solely focus on taking away Aiyuk. Detroit has been ravaged by receivers, allowing the third-most DraftKings points per game to the position. They’ve been especially vulnerable on the perimeter, allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers since their bye.
Aiyuk has earned volume with Samuel on and off the field, so his status doesn’t concern me. Aiyuk is a high-priority option for me.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Sam LaPorta and George Kittle lead the midrange. Kittle was a crucial piece of San Francisco’s offense in the Divisional Round, catching four balls for 81 yards and a score. Detroit has allowed the ninth-most yards per target to opposing tight ends, and Kittle has seen huge bumps with Deebo Samuel sidelined.
LaPorta gets a tough matchup, as San Francisco has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target to opposing tight ends. However, T.J. Hockenson and Trey McBride both caught double-digit passes against them, and LaPorta has had a healthy 24% target rate per route run this year.
Both tight ends are strong options in the midrange, with Kittle being preferred.
Jauan Jennings stepped up with Deebo hurt last week, catching five of six targets for 61 yards. He’s not a priority, but he’s a viable option if Samuel misses. He’ll likely be too high-owned, in my opinion, as he’s not a focal part of the offense.
Chris Conley and Ray-Ray McCloud would become appealing value pieces if Samuel misses. Conley would be my preferred option, but both are viable.
Kalif Raymond didn’t practice Thursday and appears like a long shot to play on Sunday. Detroit went with more 2TE sets last week, which limited Jameson Williams to running a route on just about two-thirds of Goff’s dropbacks. With Brock Wright now sidelined, Detroit will likely shift back to a lot of 3WR sets despite the addition of Zach Ertz.
Josh Reynolds will likely get a lot of Charvarius Ward in coverage, which is not a matchup I want to attack. I strongly prefer Williams despite him burning me last week.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Zach Ertz ($1,400 on DraftKings, not on FanDuel): It’s unclear whether he’ll play, but Zach Ertz is extremely cheap and has some upside. He’s currently questionable, and he may not even know the playbook in time. He’d only be viable in large-field tournaments.
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