Green Bay travels to Dallas for the afternoon game on Sunday. The Cowboys are listed as seven-point home favorites, while the total sits at 50.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Few receivers can rival what CeeDee Lamb has done this year, as only he and Tyreek Hill have topped 1,700 yards. Lamb leads the league in receptions by 16 and has 12 touchdowns this year, sitting just behind Hill and Mike Evans at 13.
Lamb has dominated all coverages but has great numbers against Cover 3 and Cover 1. Green Bay combines to run those two coverages on about 64% of their defensive snaps, while Lamb leads the league in receiving yards against Cover 1 and is inside the top ten in Cover 3.
Lamb moves all over the formation, running routes from the perimeter and slot. Lamb will be able to move away from Jaire Alexander and attack Green Bay from all over the field. There’s little reason to be worried about Lamb on Sunday.
The good vibes in Dallas continue as Dak Prescott follows in a great matchup. He’s had an MVP-caliber season, and he follows that up with a matchup against a Packers defense that struggled despite an easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks.
Green Bay got shredded by Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young, which gives me little confidence in them slowing down Prescott. He’s a top option on this showdown slate.
Both quarterbacks come into this game scorching hot, as Jordan Love has played tremendously for the Packers down the stretch. He has 20+ DraftKings points in six of the past eight games, leading the Packers to wins in six of their last eight to make the postseason.
Green Bay has shifted to a quick-pass approach, which will come in handy against Dallas’ pass rush. Dallas also runs a lot of man coverage, which Love has struggled against this year. However, Kansas City is another aggressive defense against whom Love had a great game.
He’s behind Prescott and Lamb, but Love is still a great option.
Aaron Jones has been force-fed volume as of late, with 63 carries and 72 total touches over the past three games. It’s worth monitoring the status of AJ Dillon, who missed practice Thursday. If Dillon plays, that’ll diminish Jones’ outlook. If Dillon misses again, then Jones will have a monopoly over the backfield touches again.
Dallas is a tough matchup, as they’ve allowed just 3.7 yards per carry over their past three games, as well as the seventh-fewest DraftKings points per game to running backs as a whole on the year.
Tony Pollard has been a frustrating asset this year, topping 20 DraftKings points twice on the season. He’s neck-and-neck with Jones but behind Love on this slate for me.
Green Bay has allowed the 13th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs on the year but has given up multiple ceiling games throughout the year.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Jayden Reed leads the midrange, and he’s been on an absolute tear. He has 17+ DraftKings points in four straight contests despite leaving multiple games with injuries.
Reed also runs the majority of his routes from the slot, which is good news, as he can avoid Dallas’ daunting perimeter corners.
Romeo Doubs was limited in practice Thursday, as was Christian Watson. Doubs appears that he’ll be good to go, but Watson is more of a question mark. If Watson goes, he’ll likely be limited to a snap count, but he sees high-value touches, making him interesting.
Doubs doesn’t interest me, as he’s struggled to earn targets against man coverage, and there are better options in the receiving room.
Dontayvion Wicks has performed whenever he’s been out there, with three touchdowns in his past two games. He’s quietly had a solid role all year but has definitely benefitted due to injuries. He’s likely a little too expensive, but he’s still viable. He has seen a 29% target rate per route run against man coverage compared to 19% against zone, giving a reason for optimism.
Bo Melton has played well as of late as well, but it’s hard to see how he works in if Doubs and Watson play. He’d likely be the WR5 in this scenario, despite Watson being on a snap count. He’d profile similarly to Wicks as a viable piece who may be slightly overpriced.
Dallas has been vulnerable to tight ends, which makes Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave viable. They’re both cheap, but I prefer Kraft, as Musgrave is still working back from the lacerated kidney.
On the Dallas side, Brandin Cooks is very appealing, as his connection with Prescott has grown, with eight targets in back-to-back games. This Dallas passing offense should have little trouble, making Cooks a strong option.
Jake Ferguson comes in fairly cheap and has averaged 7.33 targets per game over the past six weeks. Green Bay has allowed the 12th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends but the third-most yards per target.
Rico Dowdle has consistently seen some work even when games are close, making him a viable cheap option on this slate. He’s a little too expensive for my liking but still viable.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Michael Gallup ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Gallup and Tolbert have rotated in the WR3 role in Dallas, with Tolbert actually edging him slightly in snaps over the past two weeks.
- Jalen Tolbert ($2,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Tolbert is my preferred option between him and Gallup, as he looks like the cheapest viable play on the slate, with six targets in the past three weeks.
