NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Jan. 1): Fade J.K. Dobbins?

NFL Week 17 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Ravens are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at just 35.0 points.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

It’s hard to get excited about paying up for anyone in this contest. Both of these teams have struggled to put points on the scoreboard. The Steelers rank just 29th in points per game this season, while the Ravens have managed 17 points or fewer in four straight games.

Najee Harris is the most expensive option in this contest, but his recent performances don’t justify his price tag. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one contest for the year. He’s been even less efficient than he was as a rookie, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per reception.

Harris was still able to provide value last year due to his enormous volume. He led the league with 381 touches, including 74 catches. Add in 10 touchdowns, and it was enough to finish as the No. 3 running back in PPR leagues.

Unfortunately, that’s not a sustainable model for success, and Harris has unsurprisingly started to lose opportunities in his second season. He’s averaging three fewer carries per game than as a rookie, and he’s on pace for far less work in the passing game. Harris has handled just 57% of the Steelers’ rushing attempts this season after being one of the league leaders in market share last year.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that he grades out poorly in a tough matchup vs. the Ravens. They’re fourth in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.3 on DraftKings. Still, we’re going to need to spend our money somewhere on this slate, and he has the third-highest ceiling projection per THE BLITZ.