Sunday Night Football gives us a matchup at Lambeau Field between the Packers and Chiefs at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are listed as six-point road favorites, while the total sits at 43 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Sunday Night’s game is shaping up to be an exciting one, and Patrick Mahomes leads the way. Green Bay has been solid against opposing quarterbacks with the seventh-highest pressure rate. They’ve allowed the ninth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks, although Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff have had solid games against them as of late.
From a raw-points perspective, no one compares to Mahomes on this slate. He may not be my preferred captain option, but he’ll be in most of if not all of my lineups.
Travis Kelce has been held in check recently, averaging 11.92 DraftKings points per game over his past four contests. As I’ve said before, he always seems to find the end zone in these primetime matchups, and this Packers defense has struggled against tight ends.
Green Bay has allowed the 12th-most DraftKings points per game and seventh-highest yards per target to opposing tight ends.
Isiah Pacheco ties his career-high showdown price for tonight’s matchup coming off of a 25.9-point performance against Las Vegas. With Jerick McKinnon sidelined, Pacheco’s role is elite. He handled almost 90% of the backfield touches last week, and it’ll likely be the same this week.
Green Bay has allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs.
Jordan Love leads the way on the Green Bay side, coming off his best game of the season on Thanksgiving against the Lions. He threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns, while running for 39 yards en route to 26.62 DraftKings points.
Kansas City has allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year. This will likely be Love’s toughest test to date, but I’m optimistic, as this Packers’ offense has turned it around as of late. He’s my favorite captain option.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Rashee Rice leads the mid-range section coming off of a monster game against the Raiders when he caught eight of 10 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. Green Bay has allowed the 10th-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers. Rice is still only running a route on about two-thirds of the dropbacks, as Kansas City continues to rotate its receivers.
With Aaron Jones still out, AJ Dillon will continue to lead Green Bay’s backfield. Patrick Taylor played 27 snaps to Dillon’s 29, but Dillon out-touched him 17 to four. Kansas City has allowed the second-most yards per carry on the season, but Green Bay has been somewhat inefficient on the ground. Dillon looks like a solid play tonight due to the volume in a plus matchup.
Jayden Reed is questionable, but he’s trending towards playing. He caught four of eight targets for 34 yards and a touchdown last week. Green Bay has been scheming touches for Reed in the run game, and that’ll likely continue with Jones out.
My Christian Watson bias is strong, but how sweet was it to watch him ball out on Thanksgiving? He caught five of seven targets for 94 yards and a touchdown last week. Kansas City has been strong against wide receivers, allowing the eighth-fewest DraftKings points to receivers. I’m bullish on Watson, and Green Bay seems determined to get him going.
Romeo Doubs is the cheapest of these three, but he’s second on the team in target share. My order of preference is Watson, then Reed, then Doubs.
Justin Watson ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks last week, catching one ball for three yards and a touchdown. He’s too expensive in my opinion.
Luke Musgrave remains out, which keeps Tucker Kraft as the lead tight end in Green Bay. He caught two of two targets last week for 15 yards and a touchdown. He’s a little too expensive now, and the Chiefs have been stout against tight ends.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling matches up with his old team, and he’s third of the Kansas City receivers in routes run. He’s a viable value option, but the floor is legitimately zero.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Kadarius Toney ($1,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Toney was a full participant in practice this week after missing Week 12’s matchup with the Raiders. He’s consistently schemed touches, and he’s too cheap for his role.
- Dontayvion Wicks ($800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): If Wicks is to suit up, he’s far too cheap. He’s been one of Green Bay’s best receivers on the year and has slowly earned more and more of a role.
