Sunday Night may be a good time to spend time with family, as Christmas Eve is capped off with the Patriots and Broncos. For you sickos, there’s still money to be won, so let’s break down this showdown slate. The Broncos are listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 35.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Russell Wilson checks in as the most expensive player on Sunday night’s showdown slate. No, it’s not 2016. It is 2023, you read that first sentence correctly.
Wilson has had a pretty narrow range of outcomes, falling between 14 and 20 DraftKings points in 10 of 14 games on the year. The passing volume has remained fairly low, as Wilson still only attempted 32 passes last week despite it being a blowout loss.
His one game above 23 DraftKings points came in a massive comeback attempt against Washington, where he totaled 30.92 DraftKings points. Wilson is best reserved as a flex option in my opinion.
Courtland Sutton finally didn’t pull in some miraculous touchdown catch last week. He had fine usage, catching five of six targets for 71 yards. He doesn’t profile similarly to receivers who usually garner this type of price tag, but there are few options on this slate.
New England plays the second-highest rate of man coverage, which bodes well for Sutton. He has a 31% target share against man coverage compared to just 20% against zone. He’s a solid option despite the high price tag.
Ezekiel Elliott handled another promising workload despite being inefficient. He had 11 carries for 25 yards while catching five of six targets for 21 yards against Kansas City.
Despite the poor production, he still handled 80% of the backfield touches, and Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out again. It was backup Kevin Harris who found the end zone last game, taking four carries for 25 yards and a score. He could potentially see more work, but Elliott is still a strong bet to see the bulk of the work.
Denver got gashed by the Lions’ backs last week, and the Broncos have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs. Elliott is one of the top options on the slate.
I’ve highlighted how Javonte Williams is somewhat game-script dependent, and we saw that last week. With Denver’s dedication to running the ball, Williams is never completely scripted out. However, we see him approach and exceed 20 touches in wins, while he stays around 12-15 touches in losses.
As a home favorite of over a touchdown, we will likely see a heavy dose of Williams on Sunday, making him one of my favorite options. It’s not a great matchup, with New England allowing the second-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs. However, I believe he’ll see enough volume to overcome the matchup.
Bailey Zappe shredded the Steelers in Week 14, throwing for 240 yards and three touchdowns. However, he came plummeting down to earth last week, throwing for just 180 yards and a score against Kansas City.
To be fair, Kansas City boasts one of the best pass defenses in the league. The issue is that Zappe runs into a similarly tough matchup here, as Denver has stymied opposing quarterbacks as of late, outside of Jared Goff last week. Goff shredded Denver, but Goff and the Detroit offense is a completely different animal compared to Zappe and the Patriots.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Jerry Jeudy‘s poor season continues, and I might finally be off the bandwagon. He caught three of seven targets for 74 yards last week, reaching double-digit DraftKings points for just the second time in the past six games.
This matchup isn’t great for Jeudy, as he’s done better against zone coverage on the year. He has a 21% target rate per route run against zone coverage compared to just 15% against man. He’s not one of my top options Sunday night.
Demario Douglas had a middling return to action, catching just three of five targets for 33 yards. Denver has allowed the eighth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, giving reason for pause. However, Douglas has shown a rapport with Zappe, and I like him as a bounceback candidate here.
DeVante Parker led the New England receivers in routes run last week, catching five balls for 44 yards. I prefer Douglas straight up to Parker, but salary is a factor. With salary included, I still prefer Douglas, but it’s close.
Samaje Perine saw an increased snap share last week due to the blowout nature, but he didn’t see much work. He took six carries for 37 yards and caught his lone target for 11 yards. I don’t have much interest here, as I’m expecting Denver to be mostly in control.
It seems that Marvin Mims Jr. has been usurped by Lil’Jordan Humphrey as the WR3 in Denver, with Humphrey playing on 58% of the snaps last week compared to 42% for Mims. Humphrey saw four targets, catching three balls for 16 yards and a score, while Mims caught neither of his two targets.
I’ll bet on the talent with Mims if choosing between the two, as he’s earned targets deep down the field where he can pay off his tag on one catch.
Adam Trautman, Chris Manhertz, and Lucas Krull make up an invigorating three-man rotation at tight end for Denver. Manhertz is mainly a blocker, while Krull and Trautman each saw three targets last week. I’ll take Krull and the savings, as he played just one less snap than Trautman last week and may surpass him this week.
Pharoah Brown and Mike Gesicki are both appealing value options with Hunter Henry out for this contest. Gesicki has more of a track record of a pass catcher, so he’s my preferred option.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Jalen Reagor ($200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Reagor caught neither of his two targets last week, but he is the minimum price and played on 55% of the snaps last week, making him an appealing punt option.
