NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Dec. 18): Terry McLaurin, Discount Stud

NFL Week 15 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the New York Giants and the Washington Commanders at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Commanders are listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 40.5 points.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game has extreme importance to both squads. They’re currently tied at 7-5-1, and while both teams can make the playoffs, the more likely scenario is that they’re both battling for one spot. 538 currently gives the Commanders a 77% chance to make the postseason, while the Giants are at 52%.

That said, this game doesn’t have a ton of high-end fantasy talent. Saquon Barkley is the most expensive option by a pretty significant margin, but he hasn’t produced like a fantasy stud of late. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s had 6.8 DraftKings points or fewer in two of them.

The Commanders also represent one of the toughest matchups in football. They have two monster run-stuffers at defensive tackle, and they rank fourth in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA. They’re also 11th in pass defense DVOA vs. opposing running backs, so it’s not surprising that they’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position.

However, Barkley’s best recent game did come in this matchup. He had 19.1 DraftKings points against the Commanders two weeks ago, finishing with 63 rushing yards, five receptions, and a touchdown.

Barkley doesn’t stand out as a particularly good value on this slate, but he does have the top median and ceiling per THE BLITZ.

Daniel Jones is next on the pricing spectrum, and he’s a better fantasy quarterback than he gets credit for. He ranks 12th at the position in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks with at least four starts, largely due to his rushing upside. He’s scored five touchdowns with his legs this season to go along with a career-high 42.2 rushing yards per game.

It’s a good thing Jones can run since he doesn’t have much to work with in the passing game. The Giants have encountered countless setbacks at receiver: Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson suffered season-ending injuries, Kadarius Toney was traded, and Kenny Golladay is absolute dust.

Jones had his most active game as a runner in his first matchup vs. the Commanders, turning 12 carries into 71 yards. He finished with 18.1 DraftKings points, which was just barely enough to return value. Jones is ultimately projected pretty similarly to Barkley, but he comes at a significant discount.