We have a big matchup in the AFC playoff race between the Ravens and Jaguars to cap off the Sunday slate. The Ravens are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 40.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Lamar Jackson headlines this showdown slate, coming off one of his best games of the year against the Rams. He completed 56% of his passes for 316 yards and three touchdowns while running for 70 yards on the ground. He was the top scorer at the quarterback position last week with 35.64 DraftKings points,
It was his third time topping 30 DraftKings points this year, and the first time since Week 7.
Jackson should keep rolling this week, as Jacksonville has allowed the second-most yards per attempt since their bye. They’ve allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks on the year. Jackson is undoubtedly the top play on the slate, and he’s my favorite captain option.
Trevor Lawrence was able to play last week despite the ankle injury, and he attempted 50 passes. He averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt against a strong Browns defense, totaling 257 yards and three touchdowns. It was his fourth straight game over 20 DraftKings points, and his fifth on the year.
Cam Robinson has been placed on injured reserve, which is bad news for Lawrence. He’s struggled under pressure, ranking outside the top 25 in completion percentage and passer rating under pressure. Baltimore boasts a strong defense, allowing the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Baltimore has allowed the ninth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs, giving pause to Travis Etienne‘s outlook as well. Kyren Williams had success against them last week, and they have allowed a 100-yard rusher in two of the past three weeks.
It’s still a tough matchup, but the path on the ground may have less resistance than through the air for Jacksonville.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Zay Flowers and Calvin Ridley lead the mid-range, and boy did Ridley let me down two weeks ago. In a game filled with fireworks against the Bengals, Ridley caught just four of eight targets for 26 yards.
Ridley still leads the team in target share, air-yards share, and red-zone target share. Baltimore has allowed the 11th-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, but Ridley will be fed volume. He’s a strong option.
It’s splitting hairs between Flowers and Ridley, but I have a slight lean to Flowers. He’s found the end zone in back-to-back weeks, catching six balls for 60 yards and a touchdown last week. He caught three passes for 36 yards and a score on Baltimore’s final drive, which salvaged his day.
Flowers’ target share has been above 25% in both games with Mark Andrews now out, and Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers.
Evan Engram has broken the seal on the end zone and now has three scores over the past two weeks. He saw a season-high 12 targets last week, catching 11 balls for 95 yards and two scores.
Baltimore has allowed the sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends, but they’ve been vulnerable as of late. Engram is a strong option.
Gus Edwards remains someone I avoid, as he is a touchdown-or-bust option and he played the least amount of snaps of the three Baltimore backs last week. Justice Hill actually led the backfield in snaps, but he only had one touch. Baltimore trusts him the most in the passing game, but he’s not a focal part of the offense.
I prefer Keaton Mitchell to Edwards, as Mitchell had nine carries and two targets last week while Edwards had just six carries. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per carry to opposing running backs, making this a difficult matchup.
Odell Beckham Jr. has an elite target-per-route-run rate as of late, with over 40% in two of the past three games and 33% in the other. He’s only running a route on about 55% of the dropbacks, but he’s earning targets when he’s out there.
Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman round out the Baltimore receivers, with Bateman being my preferred option. Agholor had five targets last week, but Bateman has at least four targets in four of the past five games. I’m fine dropping down to Agholor if the salary is needed, however.
Isaiah Likely was a big part of the Baltimore passing game last week, catching five of seven targets for 83 yards and a touchdown. He’s running a route on almost every dropback, and Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-most yards per target and 10th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers.
D’Ernest Johnson is far too expensive with Etienne active, so he’s off my radar. Zay Jones is one of my favorite options on the slate, as he ran a route on 93% of the dropbacks last week and saw 14 targets. He only caught five balls for 29 yards, but the usage was strong. The matchup is tough, but Jones is underpriced and will see volume.
Parker Washington ran a route on about two-thirds of the team dropbacks last week, operating mostly from the slot. Baltimore has allowed the ninth-most receptions per game to slot receivers, so he’s certainly a viable value option. He’s found the end zone in back-to-back weeks with 27.8 DraftKings points to show for it.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Luke Farrell ($1,200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Luke Farrell has been able to spike at times, seeing five targets a few weeks ago. He’s mostly a touchdown-or-bust option.
- Jamal Agnew ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Jamal Agnew was activated off of IR and had been a solid part of the offense before his injury. He’ll likely compete for snaps since Christian Kirk is now sidelined.
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