The fate of the NFC East is up for grabs tonight. Philadelphia can borderline clinch the division with a win, as they’ll have a two-game lead and hold the tiebreaker. If Dallas can handle business on its home turf, then the teams will have identical records with four more games to go. The Cowboys are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 51.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This slate is a revelation compared to Thursday night (sorry Patriots and Steelers fans). The stud section is teeming with options, with CeeDee Lamb leading the way.
Lamb eviscerated the Seahawks last Thursday night, hauling in 12 of 17 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. He also took two carries for 30 yards, marking his fourth straight game with work on the ground. Dallas has only played three one-score games this year, in which Lamb has totaled 35.6, 32.1, and 21.7 DraftKings points.
These are two of the top teams in the league, they’re familiar with each other, and we have a tight spread. I’m all in on Lamb, and I haven’t even gotten to his matchup. Philadelphia has allowed the most DraftKings points and second-most fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. Lamb is a smash tonight.
The problem is that salary isn’t unlimited, and we have three other appealing stud options.
Jalen Hurts leads the way on the Philadelphia side, as they’re looking to bounce back from their performance last week against San Francisco.
He was two yards short of the 300-yard bonus, which would’ve bolstered his day. His usage on the ground has made his floor/ceiling combo borderline untouchable. He has 12 touchdowns on the ground this year, and there’s no reason to think they’re going to stop using him on the goal line.
Hurts was solid in Week 9 against this defense, throwing for 207 yards and two touchdowns while running for another. He’s neck-and-neck with Lamb as the top projected player on the slate.
Dak Prescott is right there with them, and in my opinion, he’s the MVP of the league up to this point. However, I don’t have a vote, and most of you probably don’t care about my MVP takes.
Prescott also feasted against Seattle, throwing for 299 yards and three touchdowns. He has 28-plus DraftKings points in five of his last six games, including 31.36 points against this same Philadelphia defense. Dallas is boasting one of the highest pass rates in the league, and this matchup is as good as it gets.
A.J. Brown rounds out the stud section, coming off a solid game in their loss to San Francisco. He caught eight balls for 114 yards, totaling 22.4 DraftKings points. He found the end zone in the first matchup, catching seven balls for 66 yards and a score.
He’s my least favorite of the stud options, but he’ll be the lowest-owned of them.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
DeVonta Smith leads the mid-range after catching nine balls for 96 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers. He’s now found the end zone in four of his last five games, topping 20 DraftKings points in three of five. He’s been on the brink of bigger days, falling within four yards of the 100-yard bonus three times.
Dallas Goedert‘s return to the lineup is worrisome for Smith’s outlook, as he has a 32% target share with Goedert off the field and a 19% target share with him on the field. Goedert caught three balls for 50 yards in Week 9 when these teams played before leaving with the forearm injury that has kept him sidelined the past three games.
Smith isn’t really on my radar, but Goedert is a solid value play. Tony Pollard and D’Andre Swift come next. Philadelphia has allowed the fewest DraftKings points to opposing running backs, and Pollard has been buoyed by touchdown production recently.
He had 9.3 DraftKings points when these teams first played, as Dallas unsurprisingly didn’t have much success on the ground. Swift handled a lot of volume in the first matchup, carrying the ball 18 times for 43 yards and catching two balls for 31 yards. He was similarly unproductive.
I prefer Pollard to Swift in the mid-range.
Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson follow, with Ferguson being my preferred target for cheaper. Ferguson caught seven of 10 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown when these teams first played. Philadelphia has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends on the year.
Cooks caught just one ball for seven yards when these teams first played. He’ll certainly be low-owned compared to the options around him, giving some appeal in tournaments.
D’Andre Swift continues to cede passing game work to Kenneth Gainwell, but Gainwell’s role isn’t strong enough for his price tag; he’s not on my radar for tonight.
Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert have been splitting time as the WR3, with Tolbert showing far more of an ability to earn targets. They’re both cheap, but Tolbert is my preferred choice.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Quez Watkins ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Quez Watkins has reclaimed the WR3 role in Philadelphia, running a route on 70% of the dropbacks last week. He’s a boom-or-bust tournament flier.
- Kavontae Turpin ($1,600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Kavontae Turpin has seen a 25% target rate per route run on the year. He’s only running a route on about a quarter of the dropbacks, but they’re trying to get the ball into his hands.
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