NFL Week 1 will come to a conclusion with a Monday Night Football showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Jets. It’s expected to be a good one, too, with the 49ers listed as four-point home favorites. The total in this contest sits at 43.5, so there are expected to be some points scored as well.
The 49ers are coming off a dominant regular season in 2023, finishing with the best offense in the league. They made it all the way to the Super Bowl before coming up short vs. the Chiefs.
Conversely, the Jets saw their season crumble just four plays into Week 1 when Aaron Rodgers went down with a season-ending injury. Rodgers will be back under center in 2024, and expectations are high once again in New York.
Which of these teams will start the year on the right foot?
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Christian McCaffrey remains the most dominant player in fantasy football, so it’s no surprise he’s the priciest player in this matchup. He’s coming off one of the best seasons of his career in 2023, racking up more than 2,000 scrimmage yards with 21 total touchdowns. He earned the Offensive Player of the Year award and even took home a third-place finish in the MVP voting.
For fantasy purposes, very few players can match his combination of upside and consistency. He played in 19 games last season (including the playoffs), and he racked up at least 20 DraftKings points in 15 of them. One of his four misses was 19.3 DraftKings points, and he never finished with less than 13.1. It’s simply not possible for opposing defenses to keep him completely in check.
When McCaffrey goes off, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. He had eight games with at least 28.1 DraftKings points last season, including all three postseason contests. He even managed to crack the 50 DraftKings point plateau, which is extremely rare air. There have only been 16 occurrences of a running back breaking 50 in the past 10 seasons, and McCaffrey has done it three times.
Paying up for McCaffrey is almost never a bad idea, but there are a few things to note this week. First, the Jets have one of the best defenses in football. They were third in defensive EPA last season, and they were particularly good against the pass. They weren’t as dominant against opposing running backs – they allowed the seventh-most PPR points to the position – but that was due more to the fact that their offense put them in a ton of deficits.
The other thing to keep in mind is that McCaffrey is at less than 100%. He was limited by calf and Achilles injuries throughout training camp, and while he’s not in any jeopardy of missing the game, he might be less effective than usual.
The Jets have a star running back of their own to consider. Breece Hall might not be McCaffrey, but he’s the closest comp you’ll find in today’s NFL. He’s a dynamic athlete, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt behind a dreadful offensive line last year. That might not jump off the page, but it was significantly better than both Dalvin Cook (3.2) and Israel Abanikanda (3.2) in the same situation.
Hall is also an excellent pass-catcher out of the backfield. He averaged 4.5 receptions per game last year while catching 80% of his targets.
If the Jets can give Hall a bit more support on offense, he has the potential for a massive season. With Zach Wilson no longer around to sabotage the offense, the sky is the limit.
The same is true for Garrett Wilson at receiver. He commanded one of the biggest workloads in football last year, racking up a 30% target share and leading the league with 45% of the Jets air yards. In terms of weighted opportunity rating (WOPR), he trailed only Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill.
The problems stemmed from his quarterback. Only 67% of his targets were deemed catchable, so Wilson is poised for a big year with Rodgers under center. There’s a reason he was routinely coming off the board in the first round of fantasy drafts this offseason.
From a matchup standpoint, the 49ers are known for their defense. However, that changed a bit in 2024. The 49ers were a more middle-of-the-pack unit, and they were downright bad against the run. They were 26th in rushing EPA against, so it’s a better spot for Hall than Wilson.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Even though the 49ers were the top offensive team in football last season, they didn’t have another true fantasy “stud” outside McCaffrey. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are among the best players in the league at their respective positions, but there simply isn’t enough work to let them all eat on a weekly basis.
Samuel is the most expensive of the trio on DraftKings, and that doesn’t make a ton of sense on the surface. He was second to Aiyuk in terms of target share last season, and Aiyuk racked up way more air yards.
However, Samuel does provide added versatility as a runner, and he’s a better touchdown scorer. He had 6.9 expected TDs last season, while Aiyuk had just 4.5. Overall, Samuel finished with 16.2 PPR points per game last season, while Aiyuk was at 15.6.
Additionally, Aiyuk’s contract dispute over the summer means he’s not looking at a full complement of snaps in Week 1. The team will reportedly limit his reps vs. the Jets, which is another boost for Samuel.
Kittle is a distant third in this trio. He had the lowest PPR average last year at 12.7 points, and his biggest benefit for fantasy purposes is that he plays tight end. Of course, we’re not forced to roster a tight end in the single-game format.
None of these players stands out as a must-play vs. an elite Jets’ pass defense, but Samuel gets the clear nod. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his 91% Bargain Rating is tied for the best mark on the slate.
After Deebo, Brock Purdy and Aaron Rodgers are next up on the pricing spectrum. As always, mid-priced quarterbacks are going to fare quite well in our NFL Models. Purdy leads the slate in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, while Rodgers isn’t too far behind.
Purdy is probably never going to get the respect he deserves. He plays in the best offensive system in football with the best collection of weapons, so his job isn’t particularly difficult. That said, he executes it to perfection. It also results in plenty of fantasy production, with Purdy finishing as the eighth-best QB in points per game during the regular season.
However, Purdy’s worst performances last year came against the best defenses. 6.4 DraftKings points vs. the Ravens. 8.7 vs. the Browns. 15.4 vs. the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. He tends to beat up on the worst teams in football, averaging 21.27 DraftKings points when favored by at least a touchdown. In all other situations, his average drops to 17.65 (per the Trends tool). I’m not outright fading him vs. the Jets, but I will try to have less ownership than the field.
I’d prefer to go with Rodgers at a slightly cheaper salary. It’s a better matchup – he leads the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.5 – and it wasn’t all that long ago that Rodgers was considered one of the best quarterbacks in football. He might not be the same player at nearly 41 years old, but he’s drawn rave reviews throughout training camp. He also has to be motivated by how last year’s campaign came to an end.
Mike Williams rounds out this price range, but he’s tough to trust at his current price tag. He’s dealt with injuries during the preseason, and he will reportedly be limited in the first game of the year. If you are going to consider him, $9,000 on FanDuel is better than $6,600 on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. This might be the cheapest that you can get the Jets defense all year, and with Purdy’s struggles vs. elite opponents last year, they’re worth considering as a buy-low option.
- Jauan Jennings ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Jennings is the 49ers’ No. 3 receiver, and he could see a few more snaps than usual with Aiyuk sidelined. He had double-digit fantasy points in four of 16 games last year, including two of three postseason contests.
- Tyler Conklin ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Conklin will be the Jets’ starting tight end, and he had a respectable 15% target share last year. It remains to be seen what his role looks like with Rodgers, but he has some upside at a reasonable price tag.
- Jordan Mason ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – With the 49ers’ RB room dealing with a host of injuries, Mason will serve as McCaffrey’s primary backup. Elijah Mitchell has provided some value in that role in the past, so he’s viable with McCaffrey already banged up.
- Braelon Allen ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – The Jets drafted Allen in the fourth round of the 2024 Draft, and he’s a very intriguing prospect. That said, I’m not sure how much work will be available for him as long as Hall avoids an injury.
- Xavier Gipson ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Gipson is a special teams ace and gadget player. He likely needs a long touchdown to return value.
- Allen Lazard ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Lazard stands out as a really strong value option on this slate. He’s going to be the Jets’ third receiver, but that role should have value with Williams limited. He has elite chemistry with Rodgers from their time in Green Bay, and he’s reportedly been one of the stars of training camp. Don’t be surprised if he has a healthy target share vs. the 49ers.
- Malachi Corley ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Corley is another Jets’ rookie, but his path to playing time is a bit less clear. He might develop a role by the end of the year, but I wouldn’t expect much in Week 1.
- Jeremy Ruckert ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – The 2022 third-rounder should open the year as the Jets’ No. 2 TE.
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